Wellemeyer Recovers; Let's Talk About the Bullpen

Continuing the pleasant early trend of excellent starting pitching, Todd Wellemeyer recovered from a bad opening start with 7 innings of 1 run ball, enabling the Cardinals to take a 2-1 decision in the opener against Arizona.

This marks the fifth quality start in a row, which, naturally enough, led to the Cardinals fifth win in a row.

Albert Pujols and Brian Barden provided all the scoring with solo home runs in the third and eighth innings. D-Back starter Doug Davis was just as tough as Wellemeyer, scattering seven hits over eight innings. He made two mistakes. Wellemeyer made one, and wriggled out of a couple of other tight corners.

St Louis, San Diego, and Toronto currently share the best record in baseball at 6-2. You would have won a lot of money if you bet those three teams would have the best record in baseball at this point.

It's pretty obvious a major reason the Cardinals are off to a fast start is the starting pitching. Let's take a look at the relievers; are they holding up their end of the bargain?

From the first week, here's the usage grid for the first week.

Of course, if that were at all legible you'd see what I mean.

Couple of notes. What you're looking at is the inning the pitcher entered and how many outs they recorded. For instance, McClellan on 6 April entered in the seventh inning and retired one batter, then pitched the eighth.

Most of the high leverage innings so far have been thrown by McClellan and Franklin, the horses from last year's bullpen. Thompson has the lion's share of the innings (5 of the 18 bullpen innings through Sunday), but all of those have been in games the Cardinals won in a blowout, or lost in a relative blowout. Reyes seems to have worked himself into leverage situations. Miller hasn't been used since 8 April (and that includes last night).

The bullpen stats, which I don't post here, show an ERA of over 4.00 for the year; but that number is really driven by Motte's bad outing on Opening Day, and the fact Thompson has surrendered 2 runs in each of his last 2 appearances. I like Brad Thompson, but early returns indicate he's the worst pitcher on the staff; LaRussa is using him exactly as he should (long man/mop up man).

Anyway, I thought this would be an interesting thing to track throughout the year. Of course, if the starters continue to throw like Wellemeyer did last night, this will be a very boring exercise.

One programming note: I'm going to be writing Bird's Eye View previews for Cardinals Clubhouse this season. My first one should be published on for the Cub Series this weekend. FYI.

Lohse near perfect. My house hates old people

We'll get to the second half of the title at the end.

First, Kyle Lohse. He gives up a leadoff single on the first pitch of the game, then retires 24 in a row. And they were efficient; he struck out 4, but only threw 89 more pitches to get through the first eight. The ninth may have been his most taxing, where he threw 22 pitches and faced the tying run in Lance Berkman. I'll assume LaRussa had someone up in the bullpen (ESPN.com doesn't say).

Lohse's complete game was really important from a bullpen usage point-of-view. As has been chronicled elsewhere, the team has only one off day between now and May 11. Although the bullpen hasn't been overtaxed - Thompson leads the group with 5 IP, mostly in blowouts - LaRussa freely used them during the homestand. Stealing a day off for the corps, as it were, is big. Everyone's reset for the road trip.

Boy this opening homestand couldn't have gone much better. Perhaps winning the game they should have one on Opening Day would improve things a bit. But for a team picked by most to finish third to start 5-2, sweep one of its bitter rivals, torch an ace who's tortured them for years? Break up the Cardinals.

I'll point out that in 2004 they were also picked to finish third, behind Chicago and Houston. Seven games do not a good comparison make, and that 04 team had a better lineup, and probably a better bullpen, than this one; but it's interesting nonetheless.

So it's off to Arizona. Wellemeyer vs. cancer survivor Doug Davis, Carpenter vs. Univ of Missouri product Matt Scherzer, and Piniero vs Jon Garland.

Now, to the second part of the title.

Yesterday was Easter, and so we had some family/friends over to the house for dinner. One of them, a family friend of long standing, had never been to our house (which we moved into about this time last year), so I was giving him the dime tour. We had finished looking at the downstairs, and were headed up stairs (I was in front of him about 3-4 steps), when I heard a thump. Apparently he missed, or tripped, over the first step, and fell, hit his head on a stair, and knocked himself out for about 15 seconds. Luckily, our stairs are carpeted and padded, which softened the blow a bit (he's 6'1"), however, when you're 80 any fall is tough to take. We called the paramedics to come check him out; he was fine (Thank God), but a little unsteady, so they took him to the local Sharp hospital for evaluation (as of 2100 last night he had passed all the tests they ran).

About six weeks before my father-in-law had tripped in almost the identical spot and fallen; however, he managed to brace himself quite gracefully (and miss my 18 month old son, who was hanging on him and probably contributed to the event) and was unhurt.

So, if you're old enough to collect a social security check, and come by the house, I'll be handing out helmets; the stairwell will also be lit up like a grand opening with floodlights and neon signs pointing out the stairs. It's not that we don't trust your balance, our your depth perception, its my house apparently doesn't like old people.

"He's not the best hitter in the game for nothing, folks!"

Every time I watch Albert hit, I appreciate just a little bit more what I'm seeing. I understand, just a little, what it must have been like to watch Musial hit. Or Williams. Or Dimaggio in his prime.

My God he's good.

Facing a guy who's tortured the Cardinals throughout his career, most notably during the 2005 NLCS, and who had never lost at neo-Busch, the Cardinals roughed him up for 6 runs in 5 innings enroute to a 11-2 rout.

If you watched the first two innings, there were no indications the game would turn out like this. Oswalt faced the minimum, while Wainwright was performing a high wire act, stranding 4 runners in scoring position. After the Cardinals pushed across a run in the third, Adam stranded two more runners, then settled down, retiring the last 7 hitters he faced. Oswalt navigated the fourth without incident, but the wheels came off in the fifth.

Bringing us back to AP. Six pitch at bat in the first, leading to a line out to third (Rasmus was doubled off first on the play). Five pitch at bat in the fourth; popped to third. LaRussa, in the book 'Three Days in August', preached an aggressive approach at the plate in an RBI situation. AP clearly took that to heart. He hit the first pitch into Big Mac Land. It probably helped having seen the other 11 pitches his first two trips.

The game safely in hand, based on the Astros lack of run production so far this season (they're hitting .276 as a team, but only the KC Royals have driven in fewer runs then their 16), LaRussa called Jason Motte from the bullpen. One scoreless inning, two strikeouts. I thought this a good move to give the kid a low leverage inning of work, build some confidence, work in an off-speed pitch, you know the drill.

AP returned to the plate in the seventh to face the Houston reliever W Wright. On the fifth pitch of that at bat, he hammered another ball to left for a 3-R HR. Ballgame. AP got to watch the rest of the game from the comfort of the bench.

Dennys Reyes threw a scoreless inning, and Thompson closed out the game, albeit surrendering 2 meaningless runs in the ninth.

Pujols' heroics overshadow Wainwright struggling for the second start in a row. Adam has struck out 11 so far this season, but he's walked 8. For his career, he's struck out almost 2.5 more guys than he's walked (2.32 to be exact); this year it's 1.37. Proving the vagracies associated with the awarding of wins and losses in baseball, he's one blown save away from being 2-0 in that span; and if the bullpen hadn't botched the sixth inning on Opening Day, he wouldn't have given up a run yet. We need to monitor this as closely as I'm sure LaRussa and Duncan are.

Of course, if AP continues to swing the hot bat, and the rest of the lineup continues to give him opportunities to drive in runs, a lot of flaws in the pitching staff can be forgiven.

Be grateful Pujols plays for us. We won't see his like again for a long time.

Piniero Deals

On the heels of Carpenter's epic outing, the Cardinals biggest enigma took center stage - the guy getting silly money for mediocre effort - Joel Piniero. We've all heard how angry he was at being left off the Puerto Rican National team, and how this is a contract year. He claimed to be in the best shape of his life.

Well, it's showtime, bubba.

Piniero gave Cardinals fans more cause for optimism this season, throwing 6 and 2/3 effective innings, leaving with a 4-1 lead in a game St Louis eventually won 5-3. It was the third quality start of the first time through the rotation.

I thought I'd try something new this year, and that is look at the rotation each time they complete a full swing through; in other words, what the rotation is doing after everyone's pitched. With Piniero's start, here's a look at some of the numbers:

Avg start length: 6.1 inn
WHIP: 1.32
ERA: 3.19
K/9: 6.68
K/BB: 2.09
Only 1 HR allowed in 5 starts.

Additionally, I've redefined the quality start to mean an ERA of 3.00 or less for the number of innings pitched, mostly because the quality start definition of 3 ER or less in 6 IP has always bugged me; how does an ERA of 4.50 become a quality start? That's a mediocre pitcher at best. Under the revised definition, 3 of 5 starts were of the quality variety.

All told, other than Wellemeyer's gagger, the starters pitched very well the first time through.

Relievers will be looked at on a weekly basis. Seemed like a better metric than every 5 games.

At any rate, the Cardinals can attribute their 3-2 start to excellent starting pitching. If Motte hadn't had a really bad outing on Opening Day, they'd be 4-1.

Oswalt, who always gives the Cardinals trouble, against Wainwright today.

Nick Adenhart

Unless you've spent the better part of the last 2 days under a rock, you're aware that Nick Adenhart, pitcher for the California Angels, was killed yesterday morning in a car accident. The vehicle he was riding in was hit by a drunk driver. Of the other three people in the car with Adenhart, two, Henry Pearson and Courtney Stewart, were also killed; the third (Jon Wilhite), is in critical but stable condition.

Eventually everyone loses members of their families. Each death is a sad occasion, but death affects everyone differently. If your uncle, who lives on the opposite coast, dies, it's a sad event in your life; but it won't hit you as hard as it does your mother, who's lost her older brother.

You lose a member of your immediate family, however, the pain is sharp, the grief real, the loss profound.

I lost my father three years ago to cancer, and that was really hard. But we knew he was dying when the cancer was diagnosed. I new he had had a full life, albeit shorter than I wanted (he was 65). And deep down, I knew that eventually I would spend time on this planet without him. I wanted it to be a long time in the future, but I knew eventually he would be called away.

I can fathom the pain Nick's father feels right now, but not its depth, or its weight. Reflecting on how he must feel creates a lump in my throat, because I know I would be devastated to have to bury one of my sons.

You're not supposed to outlive your kids. You're not supposed to have your child suddenly taken from you without warning.

Wednesday Mr. Adenhart sat in the stands and watched his son throw six scoreless innings against the Oakland A's. Thursday he sat at his son's locker weeping.

The Angels have rallied around him and his family. This will help, although it can't ease the pain, or mitigate the loss. Only time will do that, even though it will never fully make those whom Nick, or Courtney, or Henry touched whole.

I hope the Angels extend a hand to the Stewart and Pearson families as well. Nick Adenhart's untimely death is national news because he was a professional baseball player; those two families' grief is just as profound. They need support too. Nick thought enough of Henry and Courtney, and Jon, to celebrate the highlight of his professional career (to date) with them, and they shouldn't be swept aside.

The 22-year old kid who drove the minivan has been charged with 3 counts of murder, among other things. There have been a lot of calls for his incarceration/execution, in various online forums. At first I agreed with that sentiment; then I began to wonder how tragic someone's life has to be to have a drunk driving conviction, and a suspended license, at 22. His life is over; if convicted, he'll spend the rest of his life behind bars, and he will pay the price for his errors in judgment. My thirst for revenge has been replaced by pity.

No winners. Just dreams unfulfilled, families shattered, lives ruined.

Carpenter Triumphant

Well I think I speak for everyone when I say that couldn't have gone any better.

I've been looking forward to Chris Carpenter's first start ever since it became clear his arm troubles were behind him this spring. Gone was the hesitation and the guarded, almost wistful, optimism the team (and he) put out during press conferences. Carp was throwing well during the spring, and although a concerted and correct effort was made to keep expectations realistic, it seemed he was back to his old self.

Carp's start was a topic of discussion during Wednesday's UCB radio show, and the consensus was 5-6 good innings would be great for his first one; anything beyond that was gravy.

Well, we're swimming in gravy today. Six and 2/3 no-hit ball? Are you kidding me?

In retrospect, I'm relieved he gave up that hit in the seventh. Think about it. This is Carpenter's first start since Sept of last year, and he's spent the better part of 2 years recovering from a variety of arm ailments. You know the Cardinals had him on a strict pitch count. However, LaRussa employs the warrior mentality; let his pitchers go out there and compete. I think it would have been very tough for him to pull Carp after seven, with his pitch count under 90 and a no-hitter going. Giving up the hit, and removing that drama from the game, made the decision to lift Carp much much easier. And it was the correct decision. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

That said, I was really glad the boys managed to push 2 runs across in the home half of the seventh, and set up Carp for the win. He certainly deserved the W based on the effort he gave. It also got AP off the hook for a rare throwing error that led to the Pirates' only run of the game.

An interesting sub-plot in this game is Reyes pitching the ninth. He retired the side in order. Since Motte had such difficulty in his first game, it begs the question if LaRussa will go with a closer by committee approach for a while. Franklin had only worked 2/3 of an inning going into yesterday, and 'protect the lead in the eighth' is his role, so that made sense. Reyes pitched on Tuesday in the blowout, so it may be a case of getting him some high leverage work. Or it could be as simple as McLouth and Hinske hit left handed, and LaRussa wanted to have Doumit hit from the right side (although career-wise all Doumit's power is from the right side, so to turn him around in a one-run game is an interesting decision). Doumit had never faced Reyes before yesterday.

So although I'd rather be 3-1, I'd certainly rather be 2-2 than 1-3.

Today the Houston Astros come to town for a 3-game set. Piniero vs Hampton today, then Wainwright vs Oswalt, and Lohse vs Wandy Rodriguez on Easter Sunday.

As we start the most important 3 days in the Christian calendar, a Happy Easter to you and yours. And remember, in less than 48 hours you can start doing all those things you've given up for the last 40 days. Just don't eat all 3 pounds of chocolate on Easter morning, ok? Let the kids have some of that dark chocolate bunny too...

My What A Happy Day

If you have kids, or are older than, oh, say 30, you've probably seen the Disney movie "Mickey and the Beanstalk". The singing harp (pictured above, as if you needed clarification there) sings a song titled "My What a Happy Day", which helps the valley Mickey lives in flourish.

And after the systematic destruction of Pittsburgh engineered by the Cardinals yesterday, that's exactly how today feels. Even if it is raining here in God's Country.

Overall a lovely night of baseball. Lohse pitched the way we hope he pitches all season, 7 innings, 3 runs. Albert homered. Duncan homered. Yadi tripled - tripled! - his first since June 5, 2005 off Roger Clemens (of all people). Yadi also homered. Joe Thurston knocks in 2. Khalil knocks in two. And Colby Rasmus - welcome to the Major Leagues, kid. An OBP of .600 will get you all kinds of fans and playing time.

Schu made an error in the field, but it was on a rushed throw vice a range issue. I'm thinking that's less of an issue than him kicking a ball. The error didn't hurt, as he started a double play on the next hitter to erase the miscue. So even that came up roses.

It was good to see the club bounce back after the way Monday's game ended. One always wonders how a loss like that will affect a team. Looks like they put it behind them right away. LaRussa's teams have always been mentally tough. It also helps that the loss occured at home in April. If it had happened in August in Pittsburgh, and cost the team a game in a tight pennant race, it would have been harder to recover from I'm sure.

Tonight Todd Wellemeyer gets the ball against Zach Duke. Duke is another lefty, so we may see the same lineup as for Monday against Maholm. Hopefully they'll plate more than 2 runs tonight. Todd tries to shake off a bad spring training with a good effort vs Pittsburgh. This is a good team for him to face to do that. Todd's 4-1 with a 1.18 WHIP in 17 career games against Pittsburgh (most of that in relief, granted, but still).

Finally the UCB radio hour returns tonight - with the hope I will be able to dial in. It's from 1930-2030 WEST COAST TIME (emphasis added because I screwed that up on Sunday). Feel free to call in, or chat, or just listen. Should be scintillating.

Not the Droids We Were Looking For

The major problem we had last year - closing out games with the lead - reared its ugly head in a big way on Opening Day. Staked to a 4-2 lead, and with 2 out in the ninth, Jason Motte surrendered 4 runs, and the Cardinals lost 6-4.

It's early. It's very early. But the one day returns are not encouraging.

I 'watched' the game from work, courtesy of ESPN.com. Interesting side note: ESPN has updated it's Gamecast to include probability of winning at the top of the page, stealing a slice of life from fangraphs. Before the Pirates got 2 in the sixth, Cardinals win prob was about 82%. Even after that, St Louis had a 56% shot at winning. I can only imagine how high it was with two out, a guy on third, and a 1-2 count on the hitter.

Wainwright seemed shaky, although he danced out of trouble for 5 innings. That sixth was painful to watch - 3 walks, then the tying double off Kinney. I assume Ludwick made a great throw to nail Maholm at the plate, ending the inning. How about Maholm? Single and 2 walks in 3 trips to the plate. Someday I'm going to invent a NL fantasy league where pitcher hitting statistics count in the team totals.

Via SportsCenter highlights, I saw a little of Motte's outing in the ninth. There are folks out there with a lot more time watching him, so my single sample size experience is definitely skewed. He didn't seem to have a secondary pitch besides his fastball. Again, selective highlight editing skews that perception.

Assuming he has a breaking ball of some sort, his fastball is what disturbed me. It doesn't move at all. He throws hard - high 90s - but it's straight. I've seen this before in a Cardinal closer. Todd Worrell. Todd threw gas, but it was straight gas. And good fastball hitters, of which MLB is loaded with, will eventually time it and turn it around. Especially if they get to watch hitter after hitter get fed the same pitch (as Jack Wilson did). Again, one-sample size set, no other data to go off, but if Jason Motte is a 'here it is, hit it if you can' kind of guy, NL hitters will feast on him. And it will be a long year.

Opening Day!

So, at last, we come to it.

No more prognostication, no more speculation on who'll make the roster, no more discussions over 'what if's'. We start.

Wainwright vs Maholm. 1:15 PDT.

Here is the lineup, courtesy of stltoday.com:

Ryan, 2B
Ankiel, CF
Pujols, 1B
Greene, SS
Ludwick, RF
Molina, C
Duncan, LF
Barden, 3B
Wainwright, P

Some thoughts.

As Derrick Goold pointed out, this lineup is fashioned based on the lefty starting pitcher they'll be facing. Hence, Ryan and Barden make the cut. I am surprised to see Duncan in LF against a lefty over Rasmus, as Duncan is a .196 hitter in his career against LHP. Against Maholm he's 0 for 2 with a walk.

Greene hitting 4th also surprises me. Yes, he had a fantastic spring, but I think he's a #5 hitter or lower, vice the #4 guy in the lineup, on this team. With Ludwick (he of the 37 HR and 113 RBI last year) behind AP, AP would/will get something to hit, because teams know Ludwick will punish them for pitching around AP. Greene hit .213 last season - why would Maholm give AP anything to hit today with that behind AP in the lineup?

Interesting that Wainwright is hitting ninth today. I wonder if that's a function of the lineup and opposing starter, or if LaRussa has abandoned the 'pitcher hits eighth' concept this year. I suspect the former.

Apparently the weather today sucks in STL, just like last year. I hope the weather relents long enough for them to get the game in.

Fearless Predictions - Playoffs

The final step for the UCB week is to predict the playoffs in 2009. In order to complete that, I need to offer up my predictions on the remaining 4 divisions I missed. In order to keep this short, and because I'll be up at 0300 tomorrow morning to drive to the airport, here's the synopsis:

AL East
1. Yankees. Bought the best staff in the majors. When A-Roid returns, they'll be scary good.
2. Tampa Bay. Last year wasn't a fluke.
3. Boston. Not enough pitching.
4. Toronto. Not enough pitching, Vernon Wells needs protection.
5. Baltimore. It's tough playing in the most competitive division in baseball.

AL Central
1. Cleveland. Welcome back from the dead, Anthony Reyes and Travis Hafner.
2. Chicago. Bad choice in CF fellas.
3. Minnesota. Liriano's return a lift; Mauer's injury a stomach punch.
4. Detroit. Verlander's a mess. They'll rake, but like Milwaukee, can't get anyone out.
5. Kansas City. Three #5 starters in the rotation does not a contender make.

AL West
1. Anaheim. Because everyone else is a lot worse.
2. Seattle. I reserve the right to change this if Griffey plays more than 100 innings in LF.
3. Texas. Building on last year, need pitching.
4. Oakland. Need pitching. Holliday will not hit like he did in Colorado.


NL East
1. Phillies. Because I hate the Mets.
2. Mets. Because they're good.
3. Florida. Pitching and Hanley Ramirez.
4. Atlanta. Derek Lowe had a great spring, but not much else.
5. Washington. Because they suck.

Playoffs:

NL: Philadelphia, Cubs, Arizona, St Louis
AL: Yankees, Cleveland, Anaheim, Tampa Bay.

Divisional Round:
NL - Phillies over St Louis, Arizona over Cubs.
AL - Tampa Bay over Cleveland, Yankees over Anaheim

LCS:
NL - Phillies over Arizona
AL - Yankees over Tampa

World Series - Yankees over Phillies

Fearless Predictions - NL West

I love the NL West. It's like playing craps in Vegas. You know what a good roll is, you know what a bad roll is, but you never know what you're going to get.

And, since my domicile is in lovely San Diego, I get to watch an inordinate amount of NL West baseball. Which, these days, is an inordinate amount of bad baseball. Does this make me an expert on the division? In amongst the UCB world, well, yeah probably. In the entire world? Not even close.

So, with that in mind, here's how I think the division will shake out.

1. Arizona. Better overall pitching staff and better overall lineup. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, etc etc etc. Remember their 20-5 start last year, following by spending the rest of the season in the toilet? They've learned from that. Even with that craptacular non-April record, they were good enough to win last year until Manny went off in Aug/Sept. Manny won't hit like that for an entire season, which will give the D'Backs enough margin to eke out a division win.

And enjoy a first round exit at the hands of the Cubs.

2. Los Angeles. Let's face it, Manny's in the middle of the lineup. The most feared right handed hitter in baseball not named Albert. First ballot HOF. One of the top 10 sluggers of all time. Lost Derek Lowe, missed out on the Sabathia sweepstakes, but may get Jason Schmidt back, and again, have Manny. In this division, that should be enough.

3-4. Whatever. Seriously, there isn't much difference at this point between Colorado and San Francisco. San Fran should finish third if for no other reason than they have Tim Lineceum in their rotation, who is better than every pitcher in this division not named Peavy or Young. No one on Colorado can match that guy. Lineups are a wash. I'm not excited about either of these teams.

5. Ted Leitner's Padres. Because they certainly aren't 'My Padres' (one of his catch phrases). Big off-season free agent acquisition? David Eckstein. Wow. Adrian Gonzalez is really, REALLY good, and no one knows this. Peavy and Young are also really good. But overall this team can't hit, and can't hit in Petco. Brian Giles is the next best hitter on the team; he had 12 HR last season. Heath Bell is overrated at closer. They lost 99 games last season, I don't see them losing that many, but it will be high 80s.

Fearless Predictions - NL Central

With apologies to Gene Hackman...

I'm sure Villanova winning the National Championship is beyond [our] wildest dreams, so let's just keep it right there, OK?

The United Cardinal Bloggers are predicting the standings throughout MLB this week. The family spent last week in Monterey, CA, where I expected my hotel to have internet access. It did - if your computer was wireless capable. Alas, this one isn't (don't ask why - let's just say the government won't spring for it and leave it at that). It's awfully hard to blog on an iTouch, so I didn't.

It also meant I couldn't keep up with work email. When I downloaded my email Monday, I had over 1000 messages vying for my attention. So much for predicting the AL and NL East. However, today, all that is in the past, so I will attempt to beat the odds and predict the order of finish in the NL Central.

1. Chicago Cubs. As much as it pains me to say, this team is still the class of the division. Zambrano (even with arm questions), Harden, Lilly, Dempster, make up a solid rotation. Sean Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis. Even with Wood gone, the bullpen is still formidable - Gregg closing, Marmol still setting up, Heilman, Samardzija, et al. Questions do abound in the lineup. Why did they trade DeRosa away? Can Bradley stay healthy for a whole season (I say no)? Can Fukudome hit at all (again, not at the ML level IMHO)? However, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto are legit, Theriot will set the table, and that should be enough.

2. St Louis. Carpenter is back, and that bodes well for the team. Rotation looks solid, assuming Wainwright can regain his pre-finger injury form, Lohse didn't have a "once in 5 year" season in 2008, Wellemeyer continues to progress, and Piniero pitches like a man in a contract year (in other words, for food beyond 2009). Loss of Glaus, with no timetable for return (as reported today in the Post-Dispatch), hurts a lot. Hope Freese is as good as we think he is. Hope Rasmus starts the season in LF. Hope Ludwick can protect Pujols. Hope Khalil isn't just a March Mirage.

The bullpen should be adequate to great (depending on how Motte develops as a closer with Perez in AAA). This team should be good enough to win the Wild Card. I've predicted 90 wins, and will stand by that. A few lucky breaks, and we win the division, but that's a long shot.

Now it gets interesting. I don't see much difference between them, so just for fun:

3. Pittsburgh. They're due. Maholm, Duke, Snell, make a good young nucleus of a rotation. Lineup is anchored by Doumit and McLouth. The LaRoche boys and Freddie Sanchez will it out nicely. Bullpen will blow its share of saves, but this team will be competitive. And it's about time for one of the anchor franchises of the league to return to some semblance of competency.

4. Milwaukee. Let's see....Sabathia's a Yankee, Sheets is hurt again, Cardinal cast-offs Suppan and Looper make up 2/5 of the rotation, Hoffman's on the DL. This team can hit a ton, but if you can't get anyone out, who cares? .500 at best. Not a factor in the race. They will still torture the Cardinals, though.

5. Cincinnati. Another train wreck. Griffey's back having lattes (good for the Reds), Dunn is in DC (defensively good, but that's a huge hole in the middle of the order), Phillips is good, Votto and Bruce are legit, but the rest of the lineup won't make you recall the '27 Yankees. Pitching? Well, let's just say when you play in a broom closet, even having 5 Walter Johnson's isn't a guarantee of success. Their starting 5 (Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Owings) ain't exactly Walter Johnson incarnate. Until they modify that ballpark to give their pitching staff a fighting chance, or go exclusively with sinkerball pitchers who will cause opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground, this franchise won't smell the playoffs again.

6. Houston. This pains me since Roy Oswalt is on my UCB fantasy league team. But disarray in spring training doesn't bode well for array in the regular season. You can't change a leopard's spots.

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday

Here in status-symbol land....

If there has ever been a more apt description of Southern California, I've yet to hear it.

Despite my misgivings, and an attempt to turn American U into the first real Cinderella of the tournament (a role currently filled by Cleveland State), Villanova has advanced into the Sweet 16. Boy they looked good against UCLA yesterday. That's the best I've seen them play all year.

The possibility of a Xavier/Villanova regional final is still very much alive (let's go X today vs Wisconsin), which will initiate a 'border war' of sorts in my family. Here's hoping...


I've neglected the Cardinals for, oh, about two weeks. There is a good reason for this. On Friday 20 March I defended my Masters Thesis as the last hurdle before getting the degree conferred on me. Despite the fact that my Professor blew a sizable hole in our presentation - we did, in retrospect, a poor job explaining the data manipulation we performed to arrive at the conclusion we did - I think it will be good enough. So as you might imagine, prepping for that event, as well as a final presentation and exam in my other class (both of which went much better - aced the presentation, 98 out of 101 on the final), has been all-consuming lately.

But that's all out of the way now. Back to what's REALLY important.

There've been some interesting developments in camp this week.

Ludwick appears to have re-found his confidence, and his approach at the plate. The Grand Slam he hit yesterday is the latest good sign from him. With Ludwick's big bat back, AP has protection, and this club becomes much more dangerous.

Mather's 0-19 slump has not gone unnoticed, which is why David Freese started yesterday at third. A recent UCB topic asked us to predict the 25 man roster on Opening Day. All of us respondents had Mather penciled in at third. That looks to be in jeopardy. If Freese can hit, and Mather continues to struggle, don't be surprised to see Freese starting at third on 6 April. This makes Mozeliak look really intelligent for dumping Edmonds on the lowly Padres for Freese; we turn an aging, physically breaking down CF into a young 3B prospect who steps in for an injured Glaus the very next year. High marks for Mo on that one.

McClellan is getting lit up. This isn't good. He's one of the relative assurances in the bullpen when the Cardinals break camp. Based on his breakout season last year, most of us had him slotted for the high leverage stuff, and possibly the eighth inning as the set-up guy. But he's struggling. Current camp chatter has Motte as the closer and Franklin returning to his eighth inning set up role. McClellan should still make the team - there aren't a lot of good options to replace him from the right side (Boggs? I think not) - but his struggles are cause for a lot of concern. I wonder if his 'be ready to start in case Carpenter breaks down' spring hasn't adversely affected his preparation to pitch in relief.

Speaking of Carpenter, there's a great article about him in today's Post Dispatch. It's got to be tough to have to keep fighting back from injury, and to deal with the fact that your body is a fragile thing now and may betray you at any moment, on any pitch. But Carpenter's spring continues to exceed all expectations, and I for one remain hopeful he will return to his 2005 form this season. OK, not necessarily win the Cy Young, but win 15 games or more. Jason LaRue's comments in the above linked article only serve to solidify my impression that Carp's back, and is going to have a good year.

The article also clears up, at least for me, why Carp is in the #4 starter spot to begin the year - it gets him two starts against the Cubs early in the season. I am statistically challenged this early in the morning, but I believe Carp has had lots of success against the Cubs in his career - which would explain the matchup for such a critical series early in the year.

Enough for now. Enjoy your sunday. If you decide to play any Monkees today, think of me, who will be chasing a pair of 'monkeys' around the house all day.

Odds and Ends

Lots of different topics in here...

The morning show I sometimes listen to on the way to work (XX 1090 AM in San Diego) had a handicapper on this morning discussing the NCAA tournament. The dude (I think his name was Brandon Lang) picked Louisville to win it all (duh) but had them beating...

wait for it....

Yep. VILLANOVA in the final. Personally I think the dude's smoking crack. Although I would probably be unsufferably obnoxious if they did make it that far. For what it's worth, I picked Xavier to win that regional, beating Duke (who knocks out my Wildcats in the regional semifinal).

Lots of interesting stuff being discussed in the UCB topics. Today it was offseason moves by management. Yesterday was the 25 man roster. Monday we considered what number would be retired next by the Cardinals (I voted for 51). I plan to elaborate on some of these topics later on, but if you're not following the blogs as discussions are posted you're missing out. See Cardinal 70 for the complete schedule of blogs posting the discussions.

Chris Carpenter pitched today and went 6 scoreless. I am a crusty old Navy man, but I am giddy - yes, giddy - about how Carp has pitched so far this spring. Fourteen scoreless innings is nothing to sneeze at. As we get closer to Opening Day, and the lineups start to feature more Major League hitters (also the WBC fniishes), we'll know better if this is for real or just a mirage; but the early returns are VERY favorable. I have put my money where my mouth is and drafted Carp for my only 'All MLB' fantasy team. Believe it or not, he's the only Cardinal on my roster. So don't let me down, Carp.

Called into the UCB radio hour last night. Good discussion. If I ever figure out how to post files here, I'll post the audio file. You should call in or at least log on to the chat room - every Wednesday night at 8pm Pacific. There is some discussion about moving the time to allow more participation, so stay tuned for an update.

Finally, there's the World Baseball Classic. As I type this (and although it won't appear until tomorrow morning on the site) the Japanese lead Cuba 3-0 after 5. In foggy Petco Park. Most of the baseball has been pretty good, with some great games. Both Netherlands/Dominican Republic contests were classics. The US' comeback last night against Puerto Rico. It's unfortunate that all of those games were on the MLB network, which virtually no one gets.

The players, most notably Chipper Jones, have raised some issues with the format. I couldn't agree more. Even this is packaged by MLB to make the most money. Let's take a look at some of the areas that cause head-scratching.

- Round Robin play. Only MLB could devise a system where there are 4 teams in a pool, and you may not play the other 3. Why don't they do Pool Play like other major international tournaments do it, like soccer's World Cup for instance? That way, instead of playing beating the Dominican, then losing to Puerto Rico, and having to play the Dominican again, you would play Panama in that third game (this would be what happened to the Netherlands).

You ask how the winner and runner-up of the pool would be determined? Try this. Winners get two points. Games that go to extra innings are a point for each team, with an additional point awarded to the winner. If you beat a team badly enough to activate the mercy rule, you get a bonus point. The two teams with the most points advance. In event of a tie, head to head result is the tie breaker.

This would also eliminate the useless 'seeding' game. It was ridiculous that Japan went 2-0 in pool play in the first round and end up the #2 seed, all because they lost the 'seeding' game to Korea 1-0. Same for the US and Venezuela.

- Rosters. The roster rules need to be more clearly defined. The Dutch manager had a legitimate point when he complained about Brian Roberts being added to the US roster 30 min before game time. MLB is meticulous about roster configuration during the playoffs, and they should show the same kind of rigor for this event.

- Venues. With all the pretty ballparks in this country, Miami's Joe-Robbie-Pro-Player-I-Don't-Know-What's-The-Name-Today-Park-Stadium was the best choice for the second round? Really? What, the Tropicana Dome busy with a Monster Truck Rally? I would have thought Atlanta, or Houston, or Phoenix would be a much better choice - and all 3 cities have a sizeable Hispanic population.

Love the choice of Dodger Stadium for the final, however. Can we park a Camaro at home plate and do a pull-away shot as part of the opening ceremonies?

- Coverage. I was in the car tonight picking up a box at FedEx, and thought I would listen to the game on ESPN Radio. So I turned it on. Turns out, the game was simulcast (which means, for those of you under 30, the same broadcast is being heard on radio and TV). Which means the guy calling the game on TV has to talk to the action so those of us listening on the radio can keep up with what's going on. The guys doing the game have no idea how to cover a game on the radio. These two bozos are chatting away on some ancedote about one of the players, and in the background you hear the crowd start to cheer. This is because Curtis Granderson just singled to right. Only after the cheering gets loud do your trusty play-by-play guys casually mention, Granderson singles to right, before continuing with their conversation.

No number of outs, no score, no count, no 'fastball for a strike', nothing. It's as if they think the audience tunes in to hear them talk about the bunions on their feet and not the game. This is why I used to mute Padres games on local TV (that and I can't stand Matt Vasgerian. Now that he's gone I might turn the volume up again).

I would have thought MLB was flush enough to spring for a second announcing team on the radio. Three years from now, call me and I'll do it for free; so long as MLB pays for my travel, accomodations, and meals.

Consider these helpful suggestions from a concerned citizen.

Big East Tourmanent - Final

Last night was spent studying for finals, so no blogging. I taped the Villanova/Louisville game, because I knew I wouldn't get to watch it live, since the game ran during the dinner/playtime/bath/bed hours here at Chez Mike's.

That meant I had to avoid all stations that might report on sports, which for a sports junkie such as myself, isn't so easy.

It also meant I couldn't watch Syracuse/West Virginia until I'd seen the Villanova game.

Wanting to do both, I ended up watching Villanova on fast forward. Which, by the way, I recommend. You get all the action, and in a fraction of the time. Besides, making the players run around like ants on crack is kind of funny.

So, the first half, Villanova was the better team. Even in fast forward. Made me a little uneasy the number of open looks from beyond the arc Louisville got, but Cunningham was dominating inside, defensively turnovers were being forced and capitalized on, and the Wildcats went into the locker room up 8. Pitino was frustrated. Looked good.

Then the second half started. Louisville cut the lead to 2 in about 3 seconds. That's real time, not fast forward time. Then they took a 7 point lead. Villanova clawed, stayed in the game, and eventually tied the score at 50; to which the Cardinals responded by going on a 19-4 run to close out the game. 69-54 Cardinals.

Once that ended I tuned into the Syracuse game. Just in time to see it go to OT. Poor Syracuse. They must have been wasted in OT; it certainly showed as they walked the ball up the court possession after possession. I'm sure no one from this team who returns next season will complain about the conditioning work Boeheim puts them through. Syracuse found the will power to win that OT game, too, defying my fearless prediction from Friday that West Virginia would win.

Syracuse also reached their 14th Big East final, a league record. They've played in almost half of the championship games contested.

I didn't see most of the title game, or any of the first half, but it looked like a repeat of Friday. Syracuse took an 8 point lead into the half, Louisville ended up winning by 10. First Conference championship, er, Big East Tournament championship, for Louisville. Seeing as how they went through the Big East (including the tournament) 19-2, I believe they're a lock for a #1 seed. Memphis will be a #1 as well. The other two will probably be UNC (despite their loss today), and Michigan State. Pitt and UCONN should be no lower than #2's.

Some other items. I don't think Nova will get beyond the sweet 16. I've believed all year they're a soft top 10 team. Look at their record. Lost to Texas and Louisville on a neutral court. Lost to UCONN, West Virginia, and Marquette on the road; lost to Louisville and Georgetown at home. All their notable wins are at home (Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh). Their best road win is at Syracuse. I don't think they're good enough to go deep into the tournament. And, they were exposed by a taller, more athletic team in that shutting down Scottie Reynolds really hamstrings this team.

The media also began (at least, the AP report) to say Villanova's exit Friday night 'continued a run of disappointing Big East Tournament performances.' I don't necessarily agree. They've won at least one game in the Tourney every year since 2004. This year they came in as the #4 seed and lost when they were supposed to, in the semis to the #1 seed. How exactly is that disappointing? 2005, the year they finished second in the league and didn't make the finals, that could be considered disappointing, but not this year.

I won't say this isn't frustrating for Jay Wright, however. Rollie Massimino went to 3 Tourney Finals; Steve Lappas went to two, including Villanova's lone win (1995). Wright hasn't made a final yet. I'm sure that weighs on him a little. They will be better next year; we'll see how they do then.

However, Villanova has made the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row, their longest streak since going 7 straight years under Massimino; won the regular season title in 2006, the fourth such Big East title (1982, 1983, and 1997 were the other years they did it); reached the Sweet Sixteen in 3 of the last 4 years, matching their previous best effort; and are now ranked in the top 25 consistently. All the last weekend angst, anxiety, and hope that characterized my undergraduate time there are gone for the current students. Villanova always goes to the NCAA tournament; it's just a question of what their seed will be and how deep they will go. So Jay Wright has been pretty successful. I doubt he loses much sleep over not winning the Conference Tournament.

I expect Nova will be a #4 seed. For their Sweet Sixteen chances to blossom, I hope they're a #3 playing in Philly. We'll know tomorrow night.

Cardinal blogging returns next week.

Update 3/15/09 1655: Villanova is indeed a #3 seed, playing in Philadelphia next weekend. GO CATS!

Big East Tournament Update #3

A "ho-hum"-er, an upset, a buzzer beater, and an epic.

Just your typical day in the Big East Tournament.

After eight mostly pedestrian games, the top fourth of the conference got into the action yesterday. And things were definitely more interesting.

Providence came into their game with Louisville needing a win (IMHO). Didn't happen. The Friars led 3-2, then committed a Big East Tournament Record 26 turnovers, and lost by 18. Which was the expected result. I'm sure this game will leave a bad taste in the mouth of the selection committee. Although I hope Providence finds themselves in the NCAA field come Sunday, I don't think they will.

West Virginia/Pittsburgh. It is very difficult to beat a team three times in a single season. The Mountaineers proved that against the Panthers. WVA pretty much handled Pitt in this one. The Panthers led early, and then led again with about 4 minutes left in the first half, but that was it. WVA led by double digits for most of the second half, winning 74-60. Even with Beilein gone to coach the University of Michigan, this squad remains a difficult tournament matchup. And "Huggy Bear" is a battle tested coach from his salad days at Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh will probably not be a #1 seed based on this result. The Big East is the best conference in the land this year, no question; however losing in the tournament quarters, after having the first two days off, to an unranked team you beat twice in the regular season will take them off the #1 line. I see them as a #2. This will also free up a slot for someone like Michigan St or (gulp) Duke to slide on the #1 line (assuming the other 3 #1 seeds are Louisville, Memphis, and UNC).

I thought this next game was the best finish. I hadn't seen anything yet. Villanova blew a 17 point lead to Marquette, and were down one, 75-74, with Marquette dribbling in the half court and 40 seconds left in the game. Marquette missed the shot with 10 seconds left.

Villanova is out of timeouts.

Up comes the ball.

Scottie Reynolds is blanketed.

Reggie Redding drives the lane.

Dwayne Anderson cuts to the basket, and the man guarding him steps up to guard the ball.

Bounce pass.

Lay-up.

BALL GAME!

Wow. After trying to give the game away, they pulled off a great finish to advance. As was pointed out on ESPN.com's game recap today, Villanova hasn't won two games in this tournament since 2004. Obviously they'd like to end that trend tonight against Louisville. This will be a rematch of the 61-60 game Louisville won in Philadelphia.

I'll make the bold prediction that the winner of Louisville/Villanova will win the tournament.

The reason for that I'll state at the bottom.

Then the Epic. I didn't start really watching this game until there were two minutes left in regulation. I thought the referees did an outstanding job adjudicating Devendorf's last second shot in regulation, and got the call right. Did you know Syracuse led 71-69 with 1:13 left in regulation, and DIDN'T LEAD AGAIN until 113-110 in the sixth overtime? Just an unbelieveably gritty performance.

I also couldn't believe the number of calls in overtime where the referees put their whistles in their pockets, the fact that Thabeet didn't foul out until the 4th OT, and a multitude of other things. Syracuse wanted it more. Pure and simple. When they hit that 3-pointer to take the 113-110 lead, you could visibly see UCONN deflate. And that was it.

Having played past midnight EDT, Syracuse catches a break in that their semi final tonight is the late game (starting at 6pm EDT). But you gotta think they've got no legs left after playing 70 minutes last night. Even with guys getting additional rest after fouling out. That more than levels the field with WVA, who've played one more game.

I think WVA wins this one, just based on the Syracuse fatigue factor. The Orange(men) will fight, don't worry about that, but I think in the second half, after adrenalin has run its course, their legs will feel like rocks, they'll be running through jello, and WVA will win the game.

Why do I think Louisville or Villanova will win this thing? Because Louisville is the best team in the Big East. If Villanova somehow finds a way to beat the Cardinals, and they will be motivated by that one-point loss earlier in the season, then they get a WVA team that's playing its 4th game in 4 days. Not to mention WVA embarassed Nova at Morgantown during the regular season.

So I'll crown the winner of Louisville/Villanova as the Big East champ. My heart's with the Wildcats, but my money's on Louisville.

Enjoy your weekend.

Big East Tournament Recap #2

UPDATE 3/12 1541: Villanova 76, Marquette 75. Last....second...shot....prevents epic collapse. I need a sedative.

Yesterday's results returned the tournament to form. After one mild upset and one major surprise, the higher seeded teams reasserted control over the Big East Bracket.

Providence survived a gritty effort by DePaul and eliminated the Blue Demons 83-74. I think DePaul has to consider this tourney run a success, considering they entered with nary a win in conference and left 1-1. Providence remains firmly ensconsed on the bubble going into tonight's contest against Louisville. Personally I think a win over Louisville would put them into the NCAA field, providing no more Cleveland State-type teams win their conference tournaments.

My opinion of the conference tournament nonsense deserves it's own column, but let's just say I'm not a fan.

Providence finished 2-5 against the teams above them in the standings, and got blown out at Louisville by 27 three weeks ago. A win on a neutral court would seal their NCAA bid.

West Virginia rode a huge first half and beat Notre Dame 74-62. The Fighting Irish didn't really fight in that first half, scoring only 18 points to trail by 18. Notre Dame and Georgetown were the two teams exposed as overrated this season - high pre-season rankings, then el floppo during conference play. I'm glad it was those two Catholic schools and not Providence and Villanova, whom I expected it to be. WVA gets the Pitt Panthers today. WVA has played Pitt twice this season, losing by 13 in Pittsburgh and by 11 at home. I don't see any reason why Pitt won't win tonight. As an aside, I'm glad the Mountaineers are in the opposite half of the bracket. Along with Georgetown, there the one team consistently giving Villanova fits these days (UCONN doesn't count, well, because they always give Villanova fits).

Syracuse was in a dogfight with Seton Hall until some second half unpleasantness occurred on the court - a couple of technical fouls on the Pirates, and then a double technical on Eugene Harvey (SH) and Eric Devendorf (SRY). That last one fired up the Orange(men), and especially Devendorf, who collectively went on a 17-3 run and blew the game open, winning 89-74. As a reward, Syracuse matches up with Connecticut today; UCONN won their only meeting earlier this year by 14. Syracuse is in, so this is for pride.

That brings us to Marquette. The Warriors choked the life out of St John's, holding the Redmen to 10 first half points. No that's not a typo. Leading by 28 at the break, Marquette cruised to a 74-45 pasting. Their game with Villanova is the most intriguing one today. Both teams have been ranked in the top 10 this season; both teams held serve at home. Villanova won the second round bye because Marquette lost 4 in a row to close out the regular season. Interestingly, of the top 4 seeds only Villanova was beaten by Marquette, and that was the first conference game for both teams.... on New Year's Day. Nice scheduling, there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Villanova win, and I would be equally nonplussed if Marquette prevails. At this point, the teams are playing for seedings. One will be a #3, and the other a #4 when the NCAAs start. I think the game means more to Villanova, because they have an outside chance to be the #3 seed playing in Philadelphia next week; the home crowd helped them out 3 years ago during their second round game against Arizona. That 'Zona team was really good; I don't know if Nova wins that game on a neutral court.

A note about past Conference champions. For the first 10 years of the league only three teams won the tournament (Georgetown, Syracuse, and St John's). Georgetown still has the most tournament wins at seven, even though they won 6 of those from 1980-1989 (the Ewing/Mourning years). The full list:

Georgetown - 7
Connecticut - 6
Syracuse - 5
St John's - 3
Seton Hall - 2
Pittsburgh - 2 (and the defending champs)
BC - 2
Providence - 1
Villanova - 1

The Wildcats have been to several finals (5, including their lone win in 1995), but none since 1997. Getting to the final this season is a long shot - I think they're the weakest of the top 4 seeds, and would have thought that if they'd finished higher in conference - but you never know.

Big East Tournament Recap

Let me first say - categorically - I am rooting for the Nederlands. I made a comment in yesterday's UCB thread about how Americans love an underdog, well, you can't get much more underdog than a country with only two major leaguers on the roster (and those being Sidney Ponson and Randall Simon). Wow. Beat the mighty Dominican Republic team twice.

So yesterday kicked off the Big East tournament. This is the first year all 16 teams made the post-season tournament. Since the league expanded to 16 teams, the bottom 4 had been ineligible for the post-season event at Madison Square Garden. To accomodate those other 4 teams, the tourney format now includes a first round bye for the top 8 seeds, and a second round bye for the top 4 seeds.

Not that it helps Cincinnati at all. They faced less-than-mighty DePaul, who had finished the season with a league worst 0-18 record. Yes, that's not a typo - the Blue Deamons lost every single conference game. I'm quite sure this morning Cincinnati wishes the format hadn't changed, for DePaul won their first (and likely only) conference game against Cincinnati 67-57 in the tourney's opening round (and opening game). How much does that sting the Bearcat faithful? As a guy with an Xavier alum in the family, I can't help but laaaaaaauuuuuugh at the Bearcat misfortune. Lovely, lovely.

Another team not digging the new format is Georgetown. Remember two years ago they were a Final Four team? Ranked as high as #9 this year? Nothing like the conference season to separate the wheat from the chaff. The Hoyas would have squeaked into this tourney anyway as the #12 seed, but they probably would have gotten exactly as far as they will this year. St John's, making their first appearance at this event since 2003, dropped G'Town 64-59. Georgetown can kiss whatever slim hopes they had of making the NCAA's goodbye. I doubt they'll be invited to the NIT, but you never know - they are above .500 overall, although well under that mark in the conference.

Notre Dame kept their very slim NCAA hopes alive with an 11 point win over Rutgers. The Irish didn't have a good shooting night, but played suffocating defense to get the job done. They face West Virginia today in what very well might be a 'win and you're in' game for the NCAA. The Mountaineers beat Notre Dame at Morgantown, 67-58, in their 18 Feb conference matchup.

Most prognosticators put seven Big East teams in the NCAA tourney. That list does not include either Seton Hall or South Florida. In the final first round game, the Pirates beat S. Florida 68-54. As a reward, they get Syracuse today.

So your second round matchups are:

DePaul vs Providence, St. John's vs Marquette, Notre Dame vs. West Virginia, and Seton Hall vs Syracuse.

I would put these 6 teams as locks for the NCAA field: Louisville, UCONN, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse. I think if Providence beats DePaul, and they should be thanking the big Friar in the sky they don't have to play Cincinnati, they get in. I also think, as mentioned above, the Notre Dame/West Virginia winner will get in as well. I think 8 teams from the toughest conference in the country is about right. This league has had 4 or 5 teams in the top 10 rankings all season long.

We'll talk a little more about Villanova in tomorrow's post. The Cardinals have a bunch of off-days this week, so a bit of a hiatus there.

Is it too late to ask MLB to swap the teams around, so the USA and Dutch squads play here next week? I really don't care to see Japan/Korea/Cuba and whoever (Mexico or Australia) again at Petco. 3 of those 4 teams played here in 2006 (the other being the Dominican, whose players are returning to their MLB spring training complexes as we speak. Ha Ha Ha).

Odds and Ends

Oh, there's sooo much going on right now...

Cardinals played the Dominican Republic National team (less AP and A-Roid, of course) and won 4-1. Nice. Wellemeyer started, gave up a first inning run, and nothing after that. Franklin apparently dominated in his two innings; in fact, the entire staff pitched well. I mentioned last night on the UCB radio hour I thought this team could be a 90-win one with a healthy Carpenter in the mix; beating an All-star team with the likes of Ortiz, Tejada, etc, certainly supports that hypothesis.

Cardinals tried to address their lefty relief issue by signing Dennys Reyes to a two year, $3 million dollar contract. You remember Reyes - he gave up HR #60 to Mark McGwire in 1998. Reyes has been a very good left handed reliever the last 3 years. So, he's got that going for him.

A-Rod has a cyst on his hip. That's going to really mess with my AL only fantasy baseball league. Anyone got a spare 3B they can trade to New York? Think the Yanks would take Freese for Sabathia straight up - and pay, oh, $110 million of his salary?

Manny signed with the Dodgers - for the terms he wanted at the beginning. Two years, $45 mil, option to opt out after the first year. Why, again, did we go through all the nonsense between the end of the season and now?

United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour

Each week the UCB runs an hour of Cardinal Talk. This has been going since, oh, about November I guess, but I've not been able to dial in and participate in any of the shows due to (a) Master's Degree homework workload, and (b) uncooperative children who don't want to go to bed. In fact, the little one has become quite good at climbing out of his crib. I swear he's going to be a BASE jumper when he grows up - the kid is fearless.

Our weekly time block is Wednesday's at 8pm Pacific. The link to the site is here.

Anywho, the stars aligned last night and I was free to dial in. Unfortunately I caught the host, Chet from 4 the birdz, slightly off-guard; I had RSVP'd as a maybe, but since I was the only 'maybe' to dial in, he can be forgiven for not expecting it. However I thought he handled it well. Josh from the blog Redbirds Row also dialed in; Redbirds Row is a new Cardinal Blog I haven't had a chance to visit yet.

Last night's keynote speaker was Cardinal farmhand Jonny Bravo. Jonny recently graduated from Azusa Pacific University and is a left-handed starting prospect, currently slated to start in Johnson City. Before he dialed in, we discussed how the spring training is going for the Cardinals, who we thought were the most surprising pitchers, Chris Duncan, left-handed relief, and so on.

Once Jonny Bravo dialed in the conversation really bounced around, and he was a champ for putting up with our meandering questions for over 30 minutes.

The Talk Radio site records all the sessions and allows downloading the files. Rather than have me try and transcribe the whole conversation, I had intended to post the audio file here, but here we run into conflict with their business model - using the site to host shows is free, but if you want the audio it will cost you a couple of bucks. So, I haven't downloaded it yet (I'll probably do that via iTunes Friday night, just for posterity; I like listening to the melodious sound of my voice - call me narcissistic, I don't care).

However, if you're interested in listening to last night's conversation (it's an hour long), follow the link above, look for the 3/4/09 edition - you'll have to click on the description button below each file to find it, but I believe it's the second one in the middle column - and you can listen to it through your computer by hitting 'Download'.

Considering I wasn't prepared, and didn't know what to expect, I thought I did pretty well; however feel free to ridicule me in the comments. I thank the participants and dial out at about the 40 minute point.

I said it on the air last night, and will repeat it here: Many thanks to Jonny Bravo for calling and putting up with our questions. Best of luck to him in his professional career.

United Cardinal Blogger Roundtable

Since 20 Feb, the illustrious bloggers known as the United Cardinal Bloggers have been posing questions, and soliciting answers, from each other. Yesterday it was my turn to pose the question.

There has been an undercurrent of acrimony laced throughout this recent off-season from some corners of the Cardinal fan base. Buster Olney alluded to it in an article on ESPN.com some time ago; Cardinals GM Mozeliak experienced it to a degree in his last chat with fans. The pet theory is this: the Cardinals are cheap, ownership won't cut loose with the moolah to sign players capable of filling holes in the lineup/roster, this team is doomed to not contend for the near term.

So I asked the following question to the UCB group:

"There's been a lot of talk this off-season about the Cardinals' payroll. On the one hand, we have the non-arbitration offer for Looper, the failed Fuentes signing, the lack of interest in pursuing Sheets (this is before his medical issues came to light), the non-signing of an impact bat to protect Pujols, the insistence in keeping payroll around $100M. On the other, we have Lohse's contract, Pujols' deal, Carpenter's heavily back-loaded contract, Piniero's (ugh) $7.5M for this season.

The ownership group has been accused of not spending the money necessary to field a competitive team. Do you agree or disagree, and why?"

Various folks weighed in with their opinion.

Dan (C70 at the bat):

"I've been on ownership's side most of the offseason and I don't see any reason to switch sides now.

The only thing I held against them was not pursuing Sheets, and it's very possible they had more medical info than the general public. Other than that, what would we have them do? They made a run on Fuentes that most of us were not excited about. Edgar Renteria might have been nice, but the Giants way overpaid for him. There just wasn't a whole lot out there this offseason, especially at the times when they were doing their shopping.

I look at what payroll is compared to this market size. I look at the fact that they locked up Carpenter before they had to (which may not have been the best idea, but no one could say it was the move of a cheapskate). I look at the Lohse contract.

I think that management is walking a fine line between fiscal responsibility and competitiveness and doing a pretty good job of it on the whole."

Chet (fourthebirdz):

"Because of a winter of low-budget "moves," a fan would've gotten just as much excitement out of watching a winter of low-budget "movies."

If the Cards are playing up their farm system, it's probably because they have no choice but to actually use it for its intended purpose, because the FA market was volatile.

All bets were hedged this past cold-stove season, and by more organizations than the Cards, save this one New York group of which you may have heard.

But prospects? Good ones? Yeah. Lots of players that actually fit the "prospect" description, rather than the word "prospect" used as a synonym for "minor leaguer." Due to the tentative attitude toward player acquisition, we're seeing more "prospects" will a real chance of making the parent club. I predict the media outside St. Louis will be doing a lot of talking about three or four Cards' "freshmen" before May."

Sarah (La Beisbolista):

"Admittedly, I have been a little wishy-washy on the subject. Sometimes it's hard to take a step back when you see other teams (like the Cubs, 'cause remember their huge spending spree after 2007?) buying up FAs and doing what could be construed as "improving the team" (whether or not that's actually the case) and your team seems to be content doing nothing.

Once it's all said and done though, I really think the smart thing for a team to do is move slowly. Throwing money around doesn't necessarily bring home the hardware, and I think it would alientate a lot of fans if the team operated with a revolving door of free agents instead of nurturing young talent and relying on the farm system.

Comeptetive is a relative term, as well, and it's hard to say that just because a player makes $100 million he's automatically the best option. Even the guys with the huge paychecks were making the league minimum at one point. They have to start somewhere. When I'm thinking rationally, I truly believe that it's possible to have a competetive team without breaking the bank. All things equal, you can't be a Cardinals fan and have any doubt that a young, unassuming group of players can win it all."

Matt (Whiteyball):

"You can’t say the ownership group is cheap when they’ve consistently been in the top third to top half of major league clubs in payroll over the past decade. That doesn’t mean that they are not progressively sliding down from the top third towards the middle of the pack.

They lock up key players such as Pujols, Carp, Molina, and Wainwright currently and Edmonds, Rolen and Izzy in the past. This doesn’t necessarily stand out like a big free agent signing, but it does mean the club will take care of business. I think the Cardinals are a little gun-shy when it comes to free agent signings. For every big dollar free agent who earns their money, there is a Zito, Schmidt, or even Carpenter who have made a lot of money that past few seasons, with their teams getting nothing in return.

All I ask is the ownership group be up front with the fans. How many years in a row has it been said that not spending in the off-season will translate into flexibility to bring in someone big at the trade deadline. When there is no big trade deadline acquisition, the club says it gives them the ability to be aggressive in the free agent market. The cycle continues year after year and is getting old. Why can’t they just say that they are happy with the young kids they are bringing up and want to give them a shot over going out and paying much more for a veteran, who might not be better. All I think any knowledgeable Cards fan asks for is a little honesty.

There is a key concern in camp right now that will really show the ownerships hand. The left handed side of the bullpen has looked pretty bad and Ohman and Beimel are free agents still waiting for a team. If these 2 sign elsewhere for under the $2-3 million price tag and the Cardinals bullpen still looks as shaky from the left side as it does today, then I think the ownership group is heading more and more towards the cheap end of the spectrum."

The consensus seemed to be ownership is willing to spend the money to field a competitive team. There was some negativity aired, namely on the ownership's continual spin to how their dollars are spent and why, but overall the folks who responded were satisfied in the DeWitt group's analysis of the market and restraint where called for.

As for me, I believe ownership is doing what it can to field a competitive team. If they weren't, we'd see payroll contract much like it did for the 1998/2004 Marlins, or this year's Padres, and guys like Pujols, Wainwright, Molina, Carpenter, Piniero would be traded away for prospects. Although we can still hope they move Piniero.

I think this undercurrent of dissatisfaction is the work of a very few vocal fans who probably wouldn't be happy with anything this ownership group does. That they have been successful in venting their frustration is apparent as some National Media have picked up on their outrage and given it some veneer of credibility. Cardinals fans I talk to, be it on line or face to face (and yes, there are other Cardinals fans in SoCal besides me - you just need to know where to look), aren't in that vocal minority.

You want to hear someone vent some frustration? Talk to a Cubs fan re: DeRosa leaving and Bradley coming in. Cry me a river, fellas.

To sum up: Ownership is doing a competent job in fielding a competitive team, a team with a chance to contend.

My thanks to those who contributed to the discussion.

Carp throws two scoreless, sun shines brighter

Yes, it was only 18 pitches, but Chris Carpenter threw two scoreless innings on Saturday against ML hitters. It was his first such outing since 2 Sept 08. According to reports, he was able to locate his breaking ball well, and his fastball, and other than a hit batter it was a good outing.

LaRussa and Duncan were understandably giddy following this outing.

Carpenter has been brought along carefully this spring, and it is still very early in spring training to get really excited. What has happened, though, is he's met all the wickets set for him to date. Carpenter has 5 or 6 more starts to make this spring; there is always the chance of regression, but as he throws more, it appears his arm is sound this spring. For the first time since 2006.

He will begin to throw with more confidence, and throw more innings.

Cardinal fans everywhere are suddenly much more excited about this season. If Carp is able to return to the form of 2005-2006, which is a lot to ask of him but possible given his progress so far, the St Louis rotation is pretty formidable:

Wainwright #1 pitcher
Carpenter #1A pitcher (only because of the 2 year layoff and still recovering from injury)
Lohse #3 pitcher with #2 stuff
Wellemeyer #3 pitcher with #2 stuff
Piniero.... #5 pitcher with #3 stuff (which, in a contract year, I hope he finds a way to throw consistently).

If those guys make 25-plus starts each, this is a 90 win team. Even with Glaus on the shelf for the first month (at least).

Maybe not quite division-champ caliber, but certainly playoff caliber (Wild Card?)

Yes, a reason to be giddy. It definitely seems brighter around here today.

Just a short note from the wilderness...

Actually Manassas, or Bull Run. The Wilderness is closer to Charlottesville. What you call this area used to be based on where you were from in relation to the Mason-Dixon line; now there's a town called Manassas VA, and a road called Bull Run Post Office Rd.

The 2009 season officially started today. I know, it's only spring training, but the boys in Red played their first game since slapping Pittsburgh 11-4 to closeout the season last September. Periodically throughout the season I hear a certain baseball song in my head, but no more so than the first game of the year, be it spring training or Opening Day:

"Let's GO! Batter Up! We're taking the afternoon off!

It's a beautiful day for a ballgame
For a ballgame, today.

The fans are out to get a ticket or two;
From Walla Walla Washington to Kalamazoo-

It's a beautiful day for a Home Run,
Or even a triple's OK.

We're going to cheer -
And boo-
And raise a hullabaloo-
At the ball game, TODAY. (lyrics by Jon Wiesman)

Of course, it wasn't a real game - and the Cardinals had lots of trouble driving in runners, ending the affair against Florida tied 5-5. 3 for 17 with RISP. Ugh. Good thing this is spring training.

More MLB nonsense

There was a story on the Saturday local news about Little League Baseball in the San Diego area.

In it, they profiled one Little League that had abandoned the use of ML team names for their teams in the league. They are either going with colors (Kearny Mesa Blue, Red, etc), or college teams. Can you imagine being 10 years old and playing for the Oklahoma Sooners as your little league team?

Why is this?

Because in their infinite attempts to grab as much revenue as they possibly can, MLB charges a fee to Little Leagues across the country to use MLB team names/logos for their teams. MLB claims this is because of their exclusive licensing agreement with Majestic. So, leagues who still want to use MLB team names are forced to buy their equipment from a Majestic dealer, which, as you might expect, costs a little bit more than the t-shirt screening shop down the street.

While this may make sense from a business perspective, it makes absolutely no sense from a marketing perspective.

They are poisoning the well for these kids, the future fans of MLB. What fun is it to play for the Kearny Mesa Blue, when you used to play for the Kearny Mesa Padres (sponsored by, perhaps, Dairy Queen)? So you become a fan of the Blue Man Group or Blue Monday or Blue Period instead of the Padres. Nice going, MLB.

This doesn't just apply to replicating the exact uniform shirts of major league teams. You write "Giants" on a shirt that's a little league team jersey, and MLB will come calling for it's fee.

I'm not trying to scare up new revenue streams for MLB, but you know there are parents out there who wear the apparel of the team their son/daughter plays for. To show support, to be involved. All that potential revenue lost.

And, kids are exposed at an all-too early age to the greed and callousness of contemporary life in these United States. You can't wear the White Sox logo because your league can't afford to pay the already overly rich MLB organization their prohibitive licensing fee.

I don't know if we can fight this, but I'm going to try. I ask all the Cardinal blogs out there to link to this story. Email MLB telling them, politely, what schmucks they are. Tell your friends too so they can get involved. Tell other team blogs. Tell anyone who cares.

This kind of nonsense has to stop.

What Kind of Leader Are You?

I took a week off, as previously mentioned, due to illness (mine and the family's).

In the interim, we learned:

- Selig doesn't want us to blame him for the steriods debacle;
- MLBPA former head Marvin Miller stated steroids never hurt or killed anyone, so what's the big deal;
- A-Roid held a press conference, at which he described taking a steroid he bought in the Dominican Republic;
- A-Roid was linked to a known steroids-tainted trainer;
- A-Roid was caught in a lie when the steroid he 'bought' in the DR wasn't available in the DR between 2001-03, with or without a prescription;
- BBWAA decided not to revoke A-Roid's 2003 MVP award; AND
- Lots of evidence got thrown out in the Barry Bonds trial unless the wife of his trainer testifies at the trial (trial begins a week from today).

Most of this stuff didn't surprise me (Selig's weaseling, A-Roid's caught in another lie, a liberal San Fran judge throwing out key evidence in a case against a favored adopted son). What did was the depth of the involvement, and lack of consciousness, the MLBPA had in this whole affair.

For years I believed the real evil in MLB was the owners. Greedy owners. Architects of the reserve clause. Constantly raising ticket prices. It's only since the steroids story broke this time around that I've realized the MLBPA are just as culpable, if not more so, than the owners.

They fought against testing.

They fought against punishment for positive steroids tests.

They allegedly warned players of upcoming tests so they could hide their drug use.

They only cared about how much money they could rake in and very little about the well-being of their players physically.

The whole thing stinks.

Steroid abuse had been long rumored at the MLB level, but back in 1998, when the first 'concrete' evidence of that abuse turned up (McGwire's can of creatine), baseball consistently refused to believe there was a problem, much less do anything about it. This continued for 4 more years before the Commissioner's office was finally, with pressure applied by CONGRESS, able to force testing of players, and ultimately to institute the steriod testing program as we know it today.

The blame for that lack of action rightly belongs to Selig. But not him alone. Donald Fehr and the rest of the union leadership are just a cupable and should be held in just as much contempt for what's happened to the game.

Selig had a singular chance to do something positive for baseball when this all appeared back in 1998. He did nothing.

Selig has gotten a do-over thanks to the leaking of A-Roid's positive test result. He, again, has a singular opportunity to do something positive for baseball.

He could make a stand.
He could suspend A-Roid, invoking the 1971 Commissioner decree that no drug use without a prescription is allowed.
He could release the rest of the 103 names into the public record.
He could revoke any post-season awards for any players who test positive for illegal substances.
He could ban for life all those with positive tests.

Public support would back him; the union would fight, but once exposed as the Machiavellian men they are, they would have to back down and accept what the Commissioner did.

And the Commissioner's office would wrest back some control over the game, control that has been slowly ceded to the players union over the last 40 years until now they are the ones running the league.

But he won't do a thing.

And Major League Baseball will continue to lose credibility, and with it will go the fans.

Cats Peel Orange

Backed by Derrick Anderson's 22 points, Villanova held off the Syracuse Orange(men) 89-86 to win the season series, win at the Carrier Dome for the second year in a row, and win their third in a row from Syracuse for the first time since I was a student.

Cool.

So they are 10-4 in the conference, although the road they took there was a little different than I expected.

W vs Rutgers - check.

W at W. Virginia - uh, got THAT wrong. I should have known. This game was a must for the Mountaineers, who are fighting for an NCAA berth, hadn't beaten a meaningful opponent in the Big East all season, had Nova at their place, play good defense... just a horrible call on my part.

L at Syracuse - happily, got that wrong too.

So, they have the worst team in the league (DePaul), the rapidly disintegrating Hoyas, and Notre Dame left. 13-4 is still possible. 13-4 will probably not move them out of 5th in the conference, but who cares? They're a lock for the NCAAs at this point. The only suspense remaining is what their seed will be.

Family Down With a Nose; Listed as Day to Day (aren't we all)

It appears I've managed to transmit the cold I was fighting to the rest of my family - so blogging is taking a back seat for a couple of days. I'm the healthiest one in the family right now.

To recap: Mike was Typhoid Mary, now he's Florence Nightingale.

Intent is to have something up late this week; but if all else fails, Monday.

Ankiel Settles, Ludwick Next?

Just moments before going into the hotel room at the Days Inn, the Cardinals and Ankiel agreed to a 1 year contract for $2.83M. Details of the deal weren't released, so we don't know if this is his entire base salary, or what the contract could be worth if he meets all his incentive clauses. My guess is this is the total value of the contract.

Ryan Ludwick is also scheduled to go to an arbitration hearing on 17 Feb. He's asked for $4.25M, and the Cardinals offered $2.8M.

Before the agreement was reached and reported, I made a comment here on what I thought would happen in this arbitration hearing. One of the other commenters pointed out the decision reached by the arbitrator would be one salary figure or the other. I looked it up, and guess what? That guy was right.

To summarize what's in that last link, at the arbitration hearing the arbitrator listens to arguments from both sides, which can present the following:

- The player's contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership

- The club's record and its attendance

- Any and all of the players 'special accomplishments,' including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and post-season performance

- The salaries of comparable players in the player's service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.

The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press, or salaries in other sports or occupations.

(It would have been interesting to hear the comparable players arguments, since Ankiel was a pitcher until 2 years ago.)

I gotta ask. Since the result of the arbitration will be one of the two values submitted, why even hold a hearing? Why not certify someone as an impartial coin flipper and just flip a coin? Its the same 'go/no-go' criteria, and it doesn't waste the hour or the palatial hotel accomodations. Everyone could get in an extra round of golf. It's a win/win.

I would think an arbitrator would look at the offer sheets, listen to arguments, and arrive at a conclusion, which could be (a) the high number, (b) the low number, or (c) some number in between. I'm sure these guys go through an extensive training process to become an arbitrator, and probably sit in on a number of hearings as on-the-job training before being handed a case to try on their own.

Speaking of 'The Hammer'...

Bud Selig is reportedly considering:

a) Suspending A-Rod for his positive steroids test in 2003, and
b) Re-instating Hank Aaron as the all-time HR king.

Here's the link.

I'm absolutely speechless. No, seriously - speechless.

Oh, and Tejada might get deported for lying to Congress.

Jay Winik wrote a great book about April 1865. Someday someone's going to write a book about Feb 2009 and its impact on baseball. What an earth-shattering week this has been.

Arm and Hammer

We got some good news and some ho-hum news yesterday.

First the good news: Carp threw off the mound for about 10 minutes and reported no discomfort. That's the best news this week for Cardinals fans. Of course, with the adrenalin pumping and the excitement of being able to throw from the mound, everything feels great; how he feels physically this morning will be the real test. Duncan correctly pointed that out in the article.

The Cardinals aren't taking any chances with Carp. Kyle McClellan is prepping as if he'll be a starter this spring, and his workouts are the same day as Carp's. Nice planning. If Carp suffers a setback that prevents him from starting the 28 Feb game, McClellan will be ready to step in.

Next step, according to Carp, is to mix in some off-speed stuff and see how the arm responds.

If (and although yesterday's news was encouraging, it's still a big IF) Carp is ready to start the season with the big club, the rotation may shake out to be

Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel 'punching bag' Piniero

One thru four were pretty good last season. Not to drink the Kool-Aid, but all indications are Piniero worked his butt off getting ready for this season (oh yes, it is the final year of his contract), so he could be much improved over last season, which would make this a very good rotation.

The ho-hum news is all the banter about Rick Ankiel's arbitration hearing, scheduled for today. Seems the Cardinals offered him $2.35M and he wants $3.3M. I'll tell ya, in this economic environment I'll take the $950K difference and be quite happy thank you very much, but that's not how this cookie crumbles.

So it's Scott Boras and his stat-heads against the Cardinals. The Cardinal front office apparently has a couple of guys who worked arbitration issues for MLB in the past (John Abbamondi specifically, and he specialized in this stuff for 4 years). Boras is 3-5 in his past 8 arbitration hearings, and is widely considered to be an ass, so I'm sure that won't help Ankiel.

Rick is in Phoenix today for the hearing.

Yes, Phoenix. Apparently the hearing's in a hotel.

I find this incredibly funny. MLB is a multi-billion dollar operation, but they don't have an arbitration room/wing/floor in their coroprate offices to hold these kinds of hearings? Does the MLB players association not have an office building where they could do this kind of hearing? They have to do it in a hotel room?

I wonder if this is the notification Ankiel got: "Hey, your hearing is 12 Feb 09 at the Days Inn. Take 10 West out of the airport past Avondale. It's the first Days Inn you see off the highway. We're in the room with the Mystery Machine parked in out front."

8 guys crammed into a room with 2 queen-size beds deciding how much Ankiel gets paid next season. That would be hilarious.

World Series Press Pins

There is an awful lot of stuff that can be considered memorabilia. Programs, ticket stubs, old soup cans, gum (gum?), movie posters, and of course, bats, balls, caps, jerseys, and autographs. One of the more obscure are press pins, which I've been interested in since 2004.


What is a press pin? It's what identified men as members of the press, and allowed them entrance to World Series games without a ticket. The first press pin was created in 1911 for the Philadelphia Athletics; since 1912, each team in the World Series has commissioned a press pin. Today members of the fourth estate are credentialed in other ways, and the press pin is, well, just a pin that has little intrinsic value.


Unless, of course, you collect them.


I'm no longer sure what caused me to become interested in this little niche area of collecting. I've never been a big autograph hunter, not a jersey collector either. I have some baseballs, but they were gotten the old-fashioned way, either by standing in the bleachers during BP, or by inheriting them (my Dad had an old ball with red and blue seam stitching). Baseball cards? Sure, however, that hobby has gotten just ridiculous over the past 15 years. I have some good cards, some good rookie cards too, but now everything has to be GRADED to get full value for them; and I don't trust the grading companies enough to send them my good cards and get the same card back.


At any rate, I thought the 2004 pin looked pretty cool:



So I picked up one. And that led to a few more. And a few more. After all, the Cardinals have won 17 NL titles.


At this point, I've managed to acquire one pin for each Cardinal World Series from 1964 to the present. Those were reasonably priced.


The rest are for the 9 NL titles from 1926-1946. Those aren't so reasonably priced. Due to the depressed economy, people are forced to part with some of their treasures to raise money, which means more of these pins will come up for sale. Due to the depressed economy, I haven't got the moolah to take advantage of these opportunities. So, the collection may stop here. But it is fun as a way to pass time for me.


Besided, enough ink has been spilled on the latest steroids nonsense, and Kennedy's release has been exhaustively covered by my fellow Cardinal reporters and bloggers. I thought I'd post a 'fluff piece' today for your reading pleasure.

We pause in our preps for spring training...

...to turn to college basketball for a moment.

I've somewhat purposely ignored my Villanova Wildcats this season. Initially I thought they were overrated. Granted, they did make the sweet 16 last year, before getting trounced by Kansas (correction: eventual National Champion Kansas), and had the nucleus returning this season. But they didn't play anyone in the non-league schedule, and their only tough non-league game, was a loss against Texas.

Then I thought they were very overrated. I saw their Big East opener against Marquette by accident. It was on New Year's Day, and I was waiting for the Rose Bowl to start. Nova couldn't shoot from outside at all against the Warriors (er, Golden Eagles), and the Marquette players were bigger, faster, and better. Cats ended up losing by 9. They followed that by starting 2-3 in the league, and 0-4 against ranked teams.

But since a funny thing has happened. They beat a good Pittsburgh team by 10. They hung with UCONN at Storrs, losing by 6. They clobbered Syracuse this weekend. And they've managed to stay in the top 25 all season.

This week's finds them #13 in both polls. They are 7-3 in the league, and of their 6 remaining games, 5 are very winnable:

tonight vs Marquette - the ol' "Return the Favor" Game (20-3, 9-1 league)
2/13 at West Virginia (16-8, 5-6)
2/19 vs Rutgers (10-14, 1-10)
2/22 at Syracuse - the ol' "Get the Favor Returned" Game (18-6, 6-5)
2/25 at Depaul (8-16, 0-11)
2/28 vs Georgetown (13-9, 4-7)
3/2 at Notre Dame (12-10, 3-7)

Granted, Georgetown and ND have disappointed this season but are very good teams, and the Mountaineers are always tough at home; but other than the almost assured loss in the Carrier Dome, Villanova quite possibly could finish the league season by winning 5 of their last 6 and have a 12-4 record overall in the league. That will clinch the #5 seed in the Big East tourney at a minimum, and probably get them a #4 or #5 seed in the NCAAs (depending on their Big East tourney finish).

So this is the first Villanova story of the season. Go Cats!