Well... So Much For That

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.

Welcome Back, AP

I'm exhausted this AM, so I'll just say it's nice to see the big fella snap out of his funk.

I wonder if he had a lemonade with a long-lost childhood friend, who then attended the ball game and stood up during his at bat in the eighth. That ball didn't break a clock, but it was mashed.

If he hits 4 HR today....

Holliday and Boras

Sunday's Post Dispatch featured an article about Matt Holliday. Yes, he of the .606 AVG going into yesterday's game (which was subsequently deflated by his first 'oh-fer' as a Cardinal). The jist of the article was discussing how much Holliday has helped the Cardinals, but the interesting part was the talk about re-signing him.

Money quotes:

Finding the term "rental player" repugnant, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. has pledged an all-out attempt to sign Holliday to an extension before he reaches free agency in November. The club minimizes Holliday's rejection of a Rockies proposal that averaged $18 million...

and

Boras on Saturday called "absurd" any suggestion of pending talks. He also sees ready comparisons with Carlos Beltran's trade from Kansas City to the Houston Astros in 2004 and Mark Teixeira's move from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels last July(emphasis mine). Both players landed elsewhere via free agency months after their big-splash trades.

Hoo, Boy.

So what does that really mean?

Beltran and Teixeira were both traded at or near the 31 July deadline; Beltran in 2004, Teixeira in 2007 and 2008. Here are some select numbers they each put up after the trade, and their subsequent contracts:

Beltran:
2004 (KC): 309 Plate appearances, .278/.367/.534, 15 HR 51 RBI
2004 (HOU): 399 PA, .258/.368/.559, 23 HR 53 RBI.
Post Season: 20-46, 8 HR, 14 RBI.

His numbers in Houston were pretty close to what he put up in Kansas City. He hit for a lower average but had more power. His post-season numbers, however, were ridiculous. That post-season, more than anything else, drove the 7 year/$119 million deal he signed with New York (which will pay him $18.5M through 2011)

Teixeira:
2007 (TEX) - 335 PA, .297/.397/.524, 13 HR 49 RBI.
2007 (ATL) - 340 PA, .317/.404/.615, 17 HR 56 RBI.
2008 (ATL) - 451 PA, .283/.390/.512, 20 HR 78 RBI.
2008 (LAA) - 234 PA, .358/.449/.632, 13 HR 43 RBI.
Post Season (2008) - 15 AB, .467/.550/.467, 0 HR 1 RBI.

Teixeira was widely accused of sand-bagging in Texas prior to the trade to Atlanta, but the numbers don't quite bear that out. However, he didn't command what he thought he should on the open market, so signed a 1 year deal for $12.5M with the Braves.

His Anaheim numbers look like they declined from his Atlanta ones, until you realize he did that in about half the at-bats he had in Atlanta. His post-season didn't drive the market quite as radically as Beltran's did in 2004, but he still got paid with the 8 year/$180M the Yankees bequeathed him ($20M this and next year, then $22.5M until 2016).

If those are the kinds of numbers Boras is contemplating for Holliday, that's a scary proposition.

Holliday's WAR right now is 3.8, which translates into $17.2M for his work in 2009. In 2008, when he finished his season, Teixeira's WAR was the highest it had ever been (6.7), which put his value at $30M; he got $22.5M a season (average, including bonuses). His compensation probably suffered that hit based on both the state of the economy last fall, as well as the Sabathia signing. Beltran's 2005 WAR was 6.5, good enough to be worth $20.2M, and he got $17M a season (average).

I assume teams will still be willing to pay ~$5 million dollars a win for high-end free agents this winter. Holliday certainly qualifies as a high-end guy. Holliday's career high in WAR is 7.9 (2007), and he's tearing it up right now; so let's further assume he'll stay in the high end of his statistical averages (assuming he'll stay as white hot as he is now is a little silly), so that'd put his 2009 WAR at a solid 7.

That's $35M a year for him. The Cardinals can't afford that.

Drop the price to $30M. So what? The Cardinals still can't afford him.

Lower his yearly salary to $22.5M, the same level Teixeira got last year. That could be doable, however, there's this additional elephant in the room: Albert Pujols is a free agent in 2011, and the team wants to re-sign him too. Albert's AVERAGED a 7.8 WAR from 2002-2008. That's, um, $40M per.

If they break the bank to sign Holliday, will there be any $$ left to sign Pujols? Highly unlikely.

It's becoming increasingly clear the Cardinals can't afford both Holliday and Pujols. At least to me. Now, there are options, which we'll explore later this week.

Let's hope they win the World Series this year. It may be their last shot for a while.

Announcements and some trivia

First let's get to the announcements. And fun with type color.

Lou Brock talked about efforts MLB is making to combat hunger, in partnership with Bank of America. BofA created 'Hits for Hunger'; during the All-Star Game on Tuesday, Bank of America will donate $5000, for each batted ball that results in a safe hit, to the Food Bank of America. Obviously this effort will be talked about during the game.

Additionally, MLB and BofA have partnered with Feeding America, to raise more money for feeding the homeless. During the game, donations made to this organization will be matched by BofA. Donations can be made through the website if you're interested.

Next, the United Cardinal Bloggers are back, with another doozie of an event to close out the first half of 2009 with a flourish. For the doubleheader with Chicago on 12 July, the group will run a live blog courtesy of Cover It Live. You can join or monitor the discussion right here, as I will have the software on the site all that day. A number of the UCB members will be participating, and have the live blog enabled on their sites; also, the UCB home page will have it as well.

Finally, today the Cardinals defeated Chicago 8-3 in the series opener. St Louis has won the opener of all 3 games on this road trip, and eight of the 15 road series openers this season. I won't bore you with a recap.

However, in this game Albert Pujols' first 3 at bats were intentional walk, triple, and home run. His HR led off the fifth, so there was a fair chance he'd get two more at bats in the game. Which led one of my co-workers (fellow Cardinal fan) to wonder aloud, "Has Albert ever hit for the cycle?"

I did a little research, both on Albert's career and to find when the last Cardinal was to hit for the cycle.

Seventeen Cardinals have hit for the cycle. The first was Fred Dunlap, on May 24 1886, when the team was known as the St Louis Browns. The last was Mark Grudzielanek, four years ago (27 Apr 05). The list includes Hall of Famers (Stan Musial, Joe Medwick, Lou Brock, Jim Bottomley, Chick Hafey, and Johnny Mize), future HOFs (Joe Torre), a should be HOF (Ken Boyer), and some guys who surprise you (Lankford? Mabry?). Only Boyer turned the trick twice as a Cardinal.

Albert's hit 351 home runs, but only 14 triples, confirming (a) a triple is hard do, even for the best hitter in the game, and (b) a triple remains the most exciting offensive play in sports. Keep your HR. Give me a guy rounding second, digging for third, as the throw heads to the cutoff man and there's obviously going to be a play at third. And even though Soriano assisted a little bit today, it's still a triple.

Some facts about AP's triples. The first three he hit were in St Louis, but he hasn't hit one at home since 2004. He's victimized the Marlins three times, the Padres twice, and now the Cubs twice. Cardinals are 7-7 in games where he hits a triple, but have won 6 of the last seven.

Before today, AP had tripled and homered in the same game twice. Oddly, both games occurred within 5 days of each other in 2004.

He hasn't hit for the cycle. It's one of the few individual things Musial did that AP hasn't.

Maybe tomorrow. Although I'll settle for a statement start from Brad Thompson.

WOW

Coolest picture of the year so far:




Also best headline of the year.

To Paraphrase Dave Niehaus, "What a SHOT by [Pujols]!"

Well, you can't expect to win them all

Of course, you can hope to do so. And when playing the Cubs, with the chance to sweep, one can't be faulted for really really wanting the win. But I'll take 2 of 3 every time. Do that, you will win 100 games.

Cubs bats woke up in this one, winning 10-3. At some level, we all knew this was going to happen today. Todd Wellemeyer isn't right, and hasn't been all season (so far). He's made it out of the fifth once. He's allowed 40 baserunners in 4 starts (for a WHIP of 1.82). Is this just an aberration or is there something wrong?

I think there's something wrong. Through his first 4 starts last season, he'd thrown 3 more innings, but here's the rub: he'd allowed 13 fewer baserunners (27 to 40), and had struck out twice as many guys (26 to 13). Part of the frustration of living on the West Coast is I don't get a chance to see the game live, and my days are too busy to allow sitting in front of a computer and watching the game on MLB TV. So I don't know if his pitches are more up this season than last, or have less break on them this season, or what. But what is true, and I can glean this from the statistics, is he isn't missing bats anywhere near as well as he did last year.

His pitch to contact has resulted in more baserunners, and giving up more runs (this year's ERA is 6.14, last year through 4 starts it was 3.24). Cardinals already have Carpenter on the shelf. Although we can't afford another starter to go down, I'd certainly like to find out what's wrong with Wellemeyer, because we need him over the long haul.

Interestingly, through 4 starts last year he'd given up 5 home runs. He hasn't given up any this season. I wonder if a change in his pitching philosophy, to not give up as many HR this year, has led to some unintended consequences regarding his effectiveness. Realize, though, that's just wild speculation on my part.

One more item from Sunday's game. The Cubs decided they wouldn't let AP beat them (smart move), walking him his first two times up. Then, with the score 6-2 Chicago and two outs in the fifth, they hit him. Now, in the top of the second Wellemeyer had drilled Soriano high with a pitch; the score was already 3-0, there was a guy on, Soriano was hitting third, so I don't think Wellemeyer was trying to intimidate anyone. And I don't know if Harden took it upon himself to protect his guys by throwing at Pujols.

But it seemed suspicious. Especially since AP had really hurt Chicago in this series. Was it a purpose pitch? A message to AP and the Cardinals for the rest of the season? Only Harden, Soto, and Piniella really know for sure.

Of all the guys to try and intimidate, I don't think I'd pick on Albert Pujols.

Break out the brooms

The bridge crew searches for an effective Met pitcher

Albert Pujols brought the whooping stick. Rick Ankiel saw past his cheesy porno mustache and made a fantastic catch to go with his first HR and 2 RBI. Lohse pitched 5 exciting innings, but wiggled off the hook when needed.

Under the bright sunlight, St Louis swept New York out of town, winning the finale 12-8.

For all the good in this game, and offensively, there was a lot of good, the bullpen continues to be a question mark. Called upon to get 12 outs, they responded by giving up 6 runs. Most of that fell on PJ Walters, but his pen mates did a lousy job stranding inherited runners.

With the reshuffled rotation, Lohse's start today marked the beginning of the fourth time through. Looking back at the first three trips through, some interesting items have come up.

- As Rick Hummel mentioned in yesterday's article, Piniero's effort on Wednesday was the first quality start since Wellemeyer's 13 Apr start at Arizona.
- After averaging 6 1/3 innings per starter the first time through, they're averaging 5 2/3 innings since. Which is a lot of work for the bullpen. Piniero's Wednesday start marked the first Cardinal starter to get into the seventh since that same Wellemeyer start.
- Cardinals starters haven't left the game behind since Carpenter's 9 April start. Yes you read that correctly. Lohse and Wellemeyer were tied when they left the game this week.
- Don't expect to see Reyes or Walters pitch tomorrow. Everyone else should be available.

No bullpen statistics yet that I'm willing to talk about here. I discovered tonight that one of my metrics (K/9) is messed up. This is because I'm using 0.3 and 0.7 to signify 1/3 and 2/3 of an inning, respectively. Well, that messes up the metric; for instance, if a guy throws 2/3 of an inning, and has 2 strike outs, he should have a K/9 of 27. But if 2/3 of an inning is represented by .7, the calculation is 25.71. I'll figure out how to correct that this weekend.

The evil empire comes to town tomorrow. We owe these guys. Let's keep rolling fellas!

The Chris Duncan Experience

That'd be a good name for a blog, no?

When I was in college, the Villanova basketball had a 5th year senior guard named Pat Enright on the team. Enright was one of those scrappy guys, lots of heart, not really good, who could spell our point guard for a couple of minutes without hurting the team (a helpful talent, as our point guard wasn't really a point guard and we had no true point on the roster). Anyway, my freshman year Villanova made the NCAA tournament, managed to beat Arkansas in the first round, and faced Illinois in the second. Illinois was better, and led by 12 with about 3:30 to play. Villanova began to make a run. As they were picking up steam, and had cut the lead to 9 I believe, Enright got free in the corner.

Pat Enright was not a guy you wanted taking big shots late in the game.

The ball swung around to him, and he launched a three pointer. As it became clear to the 4 of us watching the game in my dorm room that he was going to shoot, we all yelled "NOOOOOOO!" simultaneously at the TV.

Swish.

"GREAT SHOT PAT!!!"

Watching Duncan play yesterday reminded me of that moment. He can be awful in the field - the drop in the sixth inning was just plain ugly - but he can also be very, very clutch. It's just that you never know what you'll see from him until the play is over, so you spend the moments when he is front and center grumbling about what could happen, then, when he comes through, the immediate moments after the play happy about what did happen. HR and 3 RBI will make most forget the defensive adventures he had throughout the game. Hey, it usually works for Alfonso Soriano.

Round 1 to the Cardinals. Wainwright was efficient, and good enough. You're still walking too many guys, Adam. Please work on that. I'd like to welcome Khalil Greene to the Cardinals all-time HR list. It's going to be a fun year needling the locals about Greene if he returns to his 2007 form.

Today, well, most are expecting the Cubs to roll through Walters. With Dave Duncan and Yadier in his corner, he'll have the advantage the first time through the order if he hits his spots. After the third inning, all bets are off. Here's hoping Big Z spent too much time on Facebook last night and doesn't have it today.

Other news: Chris Carpenter has an oblique muscle tear. Just a little more serious than a muscle strain. That explains the 4-8 week timetable for his return. I for one am glad it's not an arm problem. I don't think Walters is with the big club for more than 1 start, although I've been wrong before. Albert Pujols announced he'll be in the HR Derby this year. I would think that just made the HR derby one of the hottest tickets in STL for the All-Star Game week.

That's it from here. Enjoy your weekend. Rotation Round #2 analysis will be up this weekend, as will Bullpen week #2.

"He's not the best hitter in the game for nothing, folks!"

Every time I watch Albert hit, I appreciate just a little bit more what I'm seeing. I understand, just a little, what it must have been like to watch Musial hit. Or Williams. Or Dimaggio in his prime.

My God he's good.

Facing a guy who's tortured the Cardinals throughout his career, most notably during the 2005 NLCS, and who had never lost at neo-Busch, the Cardinals roughed him up for 6 runs in 5 innings enroute to a 11-2 rout.

If you watched the first two innings, there were no indications the game would turn out like this. Oswalt faced the minimum, while Wainwright was performing a high wire act, stranding 4 runners in scoring position. After the Cardinals pushed across a run in the third, Adam stranded two more runners, then settled down, retiring the last 7 hitters he faced. Oswalt navigated the fourth without incident, but the wheels came off in the fifth.

Bringing us back to AP. Six pitch at bat in the first, leading to a line out to third (Rasmus was doubled off first on the play). Five pitch at bat in the fourth; popped to third. LaRussa, in the book 'Three Days in August', preached an aggressive approach at the plate in an RBI situation. AP clearly took that to heart. He hit the first pitch into Big Mac Land. It probably helped having seen the other 11 pitches his first two trips.

The game safely in hand, based on the Astros lack of run production so far this season (they're hitting .276 as a team, but only the KC Royals have driven in fewer runs then their 16), LaRussa called Jason Motte from the bullpen. One scoreless inning, two strikeouts. I thought this a good move to give the kid a low leverage inning of work, build some confidence, work in an off-speed pitch, you know the drill.

AP returned to the plate in the seventh to face the Houston reliever W Wright. On the fifth pitch of that at bat, he hammered another ball to left for a 3-R HR. Ballgame. AP got to watch the rest of the game from the comfort of the bench.

Dennys Reyes threw a scoreless inning, and Thompson closed out the game, albeit surrendering 2 meaningless runs in the ninth.

Pujols' heroics overshadow Wainwright struggling for the second start in a row. Adam has struck out 11 so far this season, but he's walked 8. For his career, he's struck out almost 2.5 more guys than he's walked (2.32 to be exact); this year it's 1.37. Proving the vagracies associated with the awarding of wins and losses in baseball, he's one blown save away from being 2-0 in that span; and if the bullpen hadn't botched the sixth inning on Opening Day, he wouldn't have given up a run yet. We need to monitor this as closely as I'm sure LaRussa and Duncan are.

Of course, if AP continues to swing the hot bat, and the rest of the lineup continues to give him opportunities to drive in runs, a lot of flaws in the pitching staff can be forgiven.

Be grateful Pujols plays for us. We won't see his like again for a long time.

Pujols and the WBC

Today's Post Dispatch headline article discusses Albert Pujols. Because I'm constantly accused of having an opinion on everything, here are some thoughts:

- Albert's ready to go this season, and claims he's physically healthy. GOOD.

- Albert expects to get paid when he's a free agent next, is open to continuing to play in St Louis, but doesn't rule anything out. I think AP sees the fiscal reality of the times. The Cardinals, although making moves to improve the team, have made an organization decision not to spend ridiculous amounts of money on players. I don't have a problem with this strategy at all. I do think, however, for those few players that are the very very best at what they do (and AP certainly qualifies as one of those guys), the team should open the coffers to pay that guy fair market value. Especially when he's the face of the franchise, as AP is right now.

Who knows what AP will be worth on the open market in 2012. Since Texieria got $180M for 8 years this offseason ($22.5M per season), you can expect AP to be worth between 25 and 30 million a season, even though he'll be 32 at the end of the 2012 season. Think of him as a younger Manny Ramirez as far as free agent dollars goes. I don't know if the Cardinals will be willing to pay him that much for 5 more years, but they need to consider it, and I'm sure Mo is running the numbers even now.

I've watch the Padre debacle (RE: Peavy, Hoffman) with detatched bemusement. I'd really like to avoid that type of soap-opera scenario (jettisioning a productive member of the team, a franchise face-type guy, due to monetary reasons) with Pujols.

As far as his 'they could trade me' comments, well, noted. That's life.

- Albert wants to play in the World Baseball Classic. Cardinals don't want him to play without insurance provided by MLB. This one is interesting.

The Rincon saga was mentioned in the article. I think the Cardinals should DEMAND MLB indemnify them against injury to AP if he plays in the WBC and gets hurt. In a lot of ways, AP is our most important player; losing him to an injury suffered in this event would be devastating, both to the team and to the ownership. That only makes sense.

What I found most interesting about this discussion was AP's desire to play for the Dominican Republic. Especially in light of his becoming a US Citizen in 2007. The USA certainly isn't hurting for quality first baseman (Derrek Lee and the aforementioned Texieria among them, although I don't know if they're playing for Team USA this year), but why wouldn't AP play for this country? After all, he's lived most of his life here.

This isn't meant to imply he should be ashamed of being from the Dominican, or downplay his heritage. Far from it. And I don't know if he holds dual citizenship in the US and the DR. But does anyone else find it curious that he would rather play for that team than for ours? The DR has some guys who can play, but so does the USA. Come on AP, represent the red white and blue.

Your 2008 NL MVP is...

For once, the BBWAA got it right. My anger is stilled; my sagging faith in this organization is buttressed.

Congratulations, Mr. Pujols, and WELL deserved.

Pujols awarded NL MOP

Congratulations to Albert Pujols for winning his second NL Most Outstanding Player award, as voted by his peers in the NL. Albert won the award in 2003 as well.

There were rumors during the All-Star game that the NL players didn't vote Albert onto the team, and that he was a manager's add to the roster. Some made some hay about Hanley Ramirez being the best player in the NL at that time, having supplanted Pujols. Guess not.

Derrick Gould posted a story on the award at the Post Dispatch site, and there's a video report on it over at Yahoo! sports.

As Derrick mentioned, there's no correlation between winning this award and winning the league MVP. Does AP deserve both? Based on his numbers, yeah. But there are a lot of other worthy candidates out there, as I've detailed here previously.

Today we start the last series of the baseball season. Game 1 of the World Series. Kazmir vs Hamels. Two good left handed pitchers. Should be good. Hope people besides the baseball niche audience (and large audiences in Philly and Tampa) tune in.

Hail Yadier! (hail yadier)

Sounds like Molina had a game for the ages last night, at least, according to the description in the online Post-Dispatch this morning.

Very short post today - I have the duty, and off to relieve the watch - so some random thoughts for your to chew on:

Dan over at C70 at the bat made a point yesterday that I wanted to discuss briefly. He commented on Pujols' propensity to pop up, especially with guys on base. His frustration is understandable; AP is the best hitter on the team, and we expect him to succeed all the time driving in guys in scoring position. If memory serves he hit over .400 last season with runners in scoring position (or was that 2006? It's getting fuzzy), so there's some reason for our expectations.

Pop ups, in my opinion, mean one of two things - either your swing has a huge uppercut, or you're just missing the ball. AP does not have a huge uppercut to his swing. In fact, he repeats the same swing at bat after at bat. It's quite remarkable, actually. Which means he's just missing. When a guy fouls a ball straight back, it means he was right on the pitch but the plane of his bat was about a baseball's width below the pitched baseball's trajectory; hence he gets the bottom of the ball and sends it into the backstop. On a pop-up, the plane of his bat is about a 1/2 baseball width below the pitched ball's trajectory. That means, on a baseball that's less than 3 inches in diameter, his swing is an inch too low.

This is very simplistic, for it doesn't take into account the spin on the ball and the effect that has on its flight after its struck by the bat.

Albert centers the ball on the bat as well as anyone that has played the game. When he pops up, I shake my head and shrug, because he just missed it. You can damn well bet the pitcher is breathing a huge sigh of relief. Not only did he get AP out, but he knows AP just missed sending that pitch into the deepest reaches of the stadium.

The other item is Wainwright going to the bullpen when he comes back off the DL. This is dumb, we need him in the rotation, but it also says to me his tendon injury is worse than reported, and the club doesn't want to risk further injury with the stress of starting.

Cardinals Win; Pujols Sidelined

I'm minding the store for my boss this week, as he is on travel, so this will have to be brief. Cardinals won last night in Cincinnati 7-2. The big news should have been Mitchell Boggs' first ML win, but instead it's AP's strained calf.

I saw the replay of him running out of the box on ESPN.com this morning; I wouldn't characterize it as 'pretty bad,' as Mozeliak said, but it certainly won't be something that he bounces back from before this weekend.

If he does have to go on the DL, what a crappy way to start the week - first Wainwright with his finger, now AP and his calf. I can't help but wonder, based on AP sitting most of the Washington series out last week with the calf, if he didn't rush himself back into the lineup too soon and do more damage.

And Rolen's calf injury in Sept 2004 immediately leapt to mind as I watched that replay. Rolen sat most of that month with the injury and (other than a superlative effort in the LCS against Houston, which was mostly driven by anger against LaRussa) wasn't himself the rest of that season.

Yikes. Keep a good thought.

Larry over at Vivaelbirdos has a great article on Wainwright's finger prognosis, which I won't try and top here; it's worth the read if you haven't seen it yet.

One final thought - the Cardinals announced Piniero will start tomorrow against Cincinnati, as he comes off the DL after a groin injury. I can't help but think this is a case of LaRussa hard-headedness and Piniero is going out there too soon after the injury. Here's why. As you know, I play a little softball in my spare time. About 5 years ago I strained my groin going after a fly ball in RC (which approximates how Piniero strained his). I sat out the rest of that game because I couldn't push off with my left leg; it took me a month to feel like I could run again comfortably, and another two weeks before I was willing to test it running full speed.

Clearly, although I'm in reasonable shape, I'm not a professional athlete in prime physical condition with access to virtually unlimited resources for medical care and rehabilitation. However, I play the outfield, where the action is somewhat sparse. I was playing 2-3 times a week at that point, and ended up not playing for almost a month. Piniero is a pitcher, at the center of each and every play in the game, and he's only been sidelined 3 weeks. He's going to put a lot more stress on that muscle immediately, and if it's a little bit tender he's going to damage it again.

Wouldn't Reyes be a better option in the short-term to protect Piniero long-term? Is LaRussa's anti-Anthony stance blinded him to his options here? If Reyes is considered that low of a prospect at this point, maybe the Cardinals would be better off DFA-ing him and moving on.

(When Piniero throws a 2-hit shutout today forget we had this conversation)

Cardinals win; AP removed in fourth

A quick post today - I have the duty again, so I'm on my way to turn over and take it. Looks like it was a little soggy in the Nation's Capital last night, although the team jumped on Washington early and held on for a 6-1 win.

AP was taken out in the fourth for a pinch runner; the Post-Dispatch reported the reason as tightness in his leg, but no additional amplifying information was provided. Hopefully it wasn't serious. The ESPN ticker made it seem like he was hit by a pitch and that was the reason he left the game (shoulder is what they actually reported), but that doesn't appear to be true this morning.

Cubs beat San Diego 9-6. Some quick comments from the little bit of that game I watched:

Jason Marquis still sucks. He walked at least 5 and hit a batter in 5 innings of work. At one point in the fourth, Lou Piniella came out to the mound (after he walked McAnulty on 5 pitches) and chewed his ass. I'm not a lip reader, but it looked like Lou told him "I'll take you out now if you want to f***ing quit. OK." That's not a joke - that's what it looked like.

Chicago leads the league in on base percentage for a reason. They had baserunners all over the place last night. They could have scored a lot more than 9 runs.

The Padres had one look at this game - only it was the eighth inning, and Chicago had a 9-3 lead by that time. San Diego loaded the bases with 1 out. Tony Clark walked to drive in a run. Jody Gerut singled another. Tadahito Iguchi hit into a 6-4 force to drive in a third. So, with runners on the corners, Brian Giles stepped in as the tying run. Adrain Gonzalez loomed on deck.

Brian worked the count to 3-2, then TOOK a fastball RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE for strike three. I ask you: What pitch could you possibly be looking for in that situation that you would take a thigh-high fastball right down broadway?

Yeesh. Cubs have won 9 straight.

Leave a Pitch In The Middle Of The Plate, Get Burned

AP Photo/Larry Ignelzi

Piniero made one mistake in a bad spot - 2 on, 2 out in the sixth against the Padres #5 hitter - and Kevin Kouzmanoff hit it out to dead center for a 3-R HR.

Padre color commentator Mark Grant thought it was a slider that didn't slide. Whatever. It was definitely a breaking ball, and it hung in the middle of the zone, the proverbial "ball on a tee". Kouzmanoff didn't miss it. It was Piniero's 88th pitch of the game. He would throw 2 more, the second turning into a sharp single to LF by Khalil Greene, before exiting.

The warning signs were already up before Kooz hit his HR. Piniero missed his targets badly while striking out Adrian Gonzalez for the second out of the sixth. His 1-0 pitch was supposed to be on the inner half, but actually got a lot of the outer half of the plate. I can only assume Gonzo wasn't looking for that pitch in that spot, because that's a pitch he usually handles with power. The other pitch was on 2-1, I believe; Molina set up inside and Piniero missed way outside.

I have noticed that LaRussa tends to let his pitchers work out of trouble, even when they are missing their spots; he did it in 2006 with Carpenter on several occasions, for example. Carp is a good enough pitcher to battle through when he's tired. Piniero is hit or miss. I thought, watching that game, that perhaps LaRussa should have gotten Joel after he retired Gonzo. Hindsight is always 20-20, of course. There were good reasons to leave him in. It was only the bottom of the sixth; Piniero had barely cracked the 80 pitch mark; the Padres had only 2 hits coming into that inning (although they had matched that total in the sixth); he had just struck out the Padres best hitter. Of course, some of those reasons are also good ones for taking him out.

Can't really blame the offense for this one. Maddux pitched well other than the second inning, and the Cardinals managed to plate 2 runs. It could have been at least one more if Piniero gets a better bunt down. Credit the rookie Carlin with a good play to retire Kennedy at second. Other than that threat, Maddux pitched like he always does against St. Louis - Tough.

In other news, AP went 0-4, but that o-fer included a line shot in the first right at Gonzo that turned into a DP, and a hard ground ball in the sixth that Kouzmanoff made a real nice play on diving towards the LF line.

AP gave an interesting interview to the Padres radio pre-game show yesterday afternoon. I caught about 2/3 of it before pulling into my driveway. In addition to the usual platitudes about the team and LaRussa (and that' s not a dig at AP; just good interview-ese), he was asked about his approach, specifically if he changes his approach for a notorious pitcher's ballpark like Petco. His short answer: No. His longer answer focused on keeping his routine, which includes video of that night's pitcher and time in the batting cage to get loose.

He also said "I don't worry about the ballpark. I can hit it out of anywhere." Not boastful, just matter of fact. I thought that was cool. His approach during BP, if you are interested, is to make good contact and concentrate on hitting line drives gap-to-gap (this matches what he told Joe Morgan during an interview ESPN played on Sunday Night Baseball about 2 weeks ago). If it goes out, it goes out. He wants to get the ball deep in the power alleys on a line. Real interesting to me to hear what he focuses on. I know I'm only a beer-league softball player now, but I tend to get caught up trying to hit it 350 feet plus (because I can) instead of concentrating on making solid contact and hitting a line drive.

Which, incidentially, is what my father tried to impress on me. Since AP does the same thing, looks like my dad knew what he was talking about. And that doesn't surprise me one bit.

AP - off the deep end?

Memo to Mr. Pujols: Next time the Dominican Republic Sports Ministry offers to host a press conference for you, decline.

Obsess much? Of course you do. Why else would your beginning of career offensive numbers be better than anyone else in the history of baseball? A colleague of mine is fond of saying, "Some people succeed because they're destined to. Others succeed because they're determined to." (if he ripped that off from someone else, sorry for not acknowledging the originator). AP succeeds because he's determined to.

I will pass summary judgement on your comments in a moment. But first, let's explore what may have led to this outburst.

Number 5 started this season offensively better than anyone else had started a season in the history of baseball. Until his oblique muscle quit playing well with others, he was on pace to shatter both Bonds' season HR mark and Hack Wilson's season RBI mark.

He went on the DL 5 June, came back 23 June, and didn't hit particularly well the rest of the way to the All-Star Break,and still wasn't passed for the NL HR and RBI lead until JULY. Yet what did we hear going into the AS Break?

David Wright was the NL MVP. Oh, you forgot that syruppy spread on Wright in SI?

Ryan Howard unquestionably played excellent baseball after the All-Star Break, particularly so after Abreu was dealt to the Yankees. He did will the Phillies into the Wild Card race with his bat until the last week of the season, and vaulted himself into MVP consideration. Over the course of the season, his numbers are very good. But let's face it: he won the award based on two months of work, August and September.

Oh, one more item on Howard: in the September series Philly had to have against the Nationals (second-worst team in the NL), the team dropped 2 of 3. Howard hit .250 (3-12) in that series, 1 extra base hit, 6 strikeouts, 1 friggin' RBI. Entered tied for the wild card lead, left 2 back, never recovered. Didn't really carry the team there, did he?

Without Pujols, StL surrenders the NL Central to Houston. Period. End of discussion. Primary Exhibit: September 27 against the Padres.

Let's go a little deeper.

Here are Pujols' CAREER numbers (6 full seasons, courtesy Baseball Reference):

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SF IBB HBP
933 3489 748 1159 260 12 250 758 36 17 493 394 .332 .419 .629 2193 31 98 48

Albert's career average, OBP and slugging percentages are better than the average NL MVP since the beginning of divisional play (average MVP numbers: .323/.418/.601).

In fact, since 1968, only 13 times has the MVP's batting average been better than AP's career average, 16 times has the MVP's OBP exceeded AP's, and 14 times has the MVP's SLG exceeded AP's 'average' season.

Basically AP has put up MVP numbers every season of his 6-year career, and only won the award once.

Why has he won just the 2005 award? Well he started his run at the height of the Barry Bonds love-fest amongst members of the BaseBall Writers Association of America (BBWAA). I personally don't think there's any question Bonds was the MVP of the league in 2001 and 2002. I think Bonds won in 2003 due to the 'halo effect' of those two years (his numbers were comparable). 2004 Pujols lost votes because Rolen and Edmonds had such good years it was difficult to determine who was the best player on that Cardinal squad, so sane BBWAA decided to default to Bonds. Insane writers voted Adrain Beltre runner-up. Yep, he who has not hit above .290 or slugged over .500 but for that one summer in 2004, his walk year with the Dodgers.

And that's the other reason AP has but the one MVP award. He is competing for the votes of a bunch of guys who live in the Impulse Zone. Show them the shiny new star (Howard, Wright), give them a flash in the pan (Beltre), and they go all agog.

"Wow, look! A blue car!"

So I can see why AP would be a bit frustrated with the selection process for MVP.

But having said all that, I must say this. Mr. Pujols, you did yourself no favor with that comment yesterday. I respect you immensely for saying what you think, but you will now be portrayed as a whiny little bitch by many sportswriters and various 'Underground sports sites'. You'd have been better off keeping that opinion private and not airing it out to the world.