Holliday and Boras

Sunday's Post Dispatch featured an article about Matt Holliday. Yes, he of the .606 AVG going into yesterday's game (which was subsequently deflated by his first 'oh-fer' as a Cardinal). The jist of the article was discussing how much Holliday has helped the Cardinals, but the interesting part was the talk about re-signing him.

Money quotes:

Finding the term "rental player" repugnant, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. has pledged an all-out attempt to sign Holliday to an extension before he reaches free agency in November. The club minimizes Holliday's rejection of a Rockies proposal that averaged $18 million...

and

Boras on Saturday called "absurd" any suggestion of pending talks. He also sees ready comparisons with Carlos Beltran's trade from Kansas City to the Houston Astros in 2004 and Mark Teixeira's move from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels last July(emphasis mine). Both players landed elsewhere via free agency months after their big-splash trades.

Hoo, Boy.

So what does that really mean?

Beltran and Teixeira were both traded at or near the 31 July deadline; Beltran in 2004, Teixeira in 2007 and 2008. Here are some select numbers they each put up after the trade, and their subsequent contracts:

Beltran:
2004 (KC): 309 Plate appearances, .278/.367/.534, 15 HR 51 RBI
2004 (HOU): 399 PA, .258/.368/.559, 23 HR 53 RBI.
Post Season: 20-46, 8 HR, 14 RBI.

His numbers in Houston were pretty close to what he put up in Kansas City. He hit for a lower average but had more power. His post-season numbers, however, were ridiculous. That post-season, more than anything else, drove the 7 year/$119 million deal he signed with New York (which will pay him $18.5M through 2011)

Teixeira:
2007 (TEX) - 335 PA, .297/.397/.524, 13 HR 49 RBI.
2007 (ATL) - 340 PA, .317/.404/.615, 17 HR 56 RBI.
2008 (ATL) - 451 PA, .283/.390/.512, 20 HR 78 RBI.
2008 (LAA) - 234 PA, .358/.449/.632, 13 HR 43 RBI.
Post Season (2008) - 15 AB, .467/.550/.467, 0 HR 1 RBI.

Teixeira was widely accused of sand-bagging in Texas prior to the trade to Atlanta, but the numbers don't quite bear that out. However, he didn't command what he thought he should on the open market, so signed a 1 year deal for $12.5M with the Braves.

His Anaheim numbers look like they declined from his Atlanta ones, until you realize he did that in about half the at-bats he had in Atlanta. His post-season didn't drive the market quite as radically as Beltran's did in 2004, but he still got paid with the 8 year/$180M the Yankees bequeathed him ($20M this and next year, then $22.5M until 2016).

If those are the kinds of numbers Boras is contemplating for Holliday, that's a scary proposition.

Holliday's WAR right now is 3.8, which translates into $17.2M for his work in 2009. In 2008, when he finished his season, Teixeira's WAR was the highest it had ever been (6.7), which put his value at $30M; he got $22.5M a season (average, including bonuses). His compensation probably suffered that hit based on both the state of the economy last fall, as well as the Sabathia signing. Beltran's 2005 WAR was 6.5, good enough to be worth $20.2M, and he got $17M a season (average).

I assume teams will still be willing to pay ~$5 million dollars a win for high-end free agents this winter. Holliday certainly qualifies as a high-end guy. Holliday's career high in WAR is 7.9 (2007), and he's tearing it up right now; so let's further assume he'll stay in the high end of his statistical averages (assuming he'll stay as white hot as he is now is a little silly), so that'd put his 2009 WAR at a solid 7.

That's $35M a year for him. The Cardinals can't afford that.

Drop the price to $30M. So what? The Cardinals still can't afford him.

Lower his yearly salary to $22.5M, the same level Teixeira got last year. That could be doable, however, there's this additional elephant in the room: Albert Pujols is a free agent in 2011, and the team wants to re-sign him too. Albert's AVERAGED a 7.8 WAR from 2002-2008. That's, um, $40M per.

If they break the bank to sign Holliday, will there be any $$ left to sign Pujols? Highly unlikely.

It's becoming increasingly clear the Cardinals can't afford both Holliday and Pujols. At least to me. Now, there are options, which we'll explore later this week.

Let's hope they win the World Series this year. It may be their last shot for a while.

The Tell-Tale Heart

Not much Cardinal news to speak of. Dan over at C70 at the bat pretty well covered the salient points from Dave Duncan's interview (published in the post-dispatch yesterday).

The big news is two fold: Manny rejecting a 1-year, $25M offer from the Dodgers, and the ongoing Barry Bonds saga.

Some people are all up in arms about Manny's contract demands. I'm not. Yes, the money these guys get to play a kid's game (or what once was the kid's game) is ridiculous, but it has been so for years; this is not new. It was ridiculous when Kevin Brown got $15M a year from the Dodgers; it was ridiculous when Dave Winfield got $2.3M a year from the Yankees; hell, it was ridiculous when Mike Schmidt got paid $1M a year.

And this skewing of how much compensation one should get to play a sport isn't unique to baseball players. Remember when Latrell Sprewell famously said, "I've got a family to feed" regarding the NBA strike? I believe he was making upwards of $15M a season at that time. Makes you wonder who the family was he needed to feed - the greater St Louis area?

Although I agree Scott Boras feeds on the souls of the damned, this isn't something to get fired up over. The market will correct; Manny will accept some more reasonable terms (I can't believe I'd think $20M is more reasonable; that's still outrageous), or he won't play in 2009.

The more interesting story, to me, is the Barry Bonds saga. The judge presiding over his perjury trial has unsealed some documents (the trial starts 2 March). Here's what they said:

- Bonds tested positive for steroids in 2000 and 2001, his two highest HR years.
- Samples collected in 2003 were re-tested; steroids were found in those, too. Not surprisingly, this sample was tested by MLB in 2004, and passed; that should tell you all you need know regarding the standards MLB had for doping back then.
- Other ancillary evidence regarding taped conversations, etc.

All of it makes the government's case look far, far stronger than it did. All if it makes the argument Bonds is being persecuted because he's black much weaker. It makes me wonder what, if anything, MLB will do if the courts find Bonds guilty of perjury - will they place an asterisk next to his records? Will they expunge them entirely from the record books? And will this influence voters when he is eligible for the Hall in 2012?

The title of this post refers to a pretty good short story by Edgar Allen Poe. I wonder if Barry hears it beating whenever he walks into a room with baseball 'stuff' in it.