Lincecum wins Cy Young; Some Appalled

In case you hadn't heard, and I hadn't due to being at an off-site today, Tim Lincecum repeated as NL Cy Young winner, in one of the closer votes ever. It was so close that Adam Wainwright had more first place votes, but finished third overall. Chris Carpenter finished second. 10 points separated the three hurlers.

As can be expected, some Cardinal writers are incensed by this result, and that's fine. And as is typical in these types of contests, some voter ranking choices are being called into question. Interestingly, my rankings closely matched Keith Law's ballot, except I had Carpenter third instead of Wainwright. I never thought I'd agree with Keith Law on anything.

I am on record as saying Lincecum, Wainwright, and Carpenter were all worthy candidates, and whoever won amongst the three of them would be deserving. But based on the results, and some of what's been written by other writers, there are a couple of things I wanted to at least throw out there.

- Innings pitched should not enter into the Cy Young argument. What, no reliever can ever win a Cy Young again? Besides, to say one pitcher is less qualified than another because he threw 40 fewer innings, in this day and age, is ridiculous. Most pitchers don't go more than seven innings a start anymore as a general rule. Assuming a starter gets 32 starts in a season, and goes 7 innings in all of them, he'll rack up 224 innings. Lincecum averaged 7.04 innings/start (225 1/3 innings, 32 starts). Wainwright - 6.85 (233 innings, 2 more starts). Carpenter 6.88 (192 2/3, 4 fewer starts). So on the average, each guy lasted almost as long per game as the other two. It's a wash. Total IP shouldn't be the deciding factor.

Advanced statistical metrics exist to take some of these things off the table; to allow the serious observer of the game to strip things the pitcher can't control away (like how long the manager will leave him in the game) and evaluate him based on his talent alone. If anything Carpenter is MORE deserving of the award based on total innings pitched. He missed 6 weeks with a strained muscle in his midsection, and upon his return he was as dominating as he was before he got hurt. Compare that to Lohse, who was never the same after getting hit by a pitch, or Lincecum, who tired down the stretch.

- That said, some statistical metrics may be overrated. There was a comment at the bottom of Jeff Gordon's post regarding FIP, that it's too heavily weighted by strikeouts. FIP, as the name implies, takes the contribution of the defense out, evaluating the pitcher on the things he alone can control. (HR*13+(BB+HBP+IBB)*3-K*2)/innings pitched is the equation. You can see that strikeouts will raise the numerator's total value, bringing it closer to innings pitched and lowering the quotient. So it is a short walk to obvious-ville to say guys with high strikeout totals and high innings pitched will have a lower FIP than others. Lincecum led the NL in FIP at 2.34. and K with 261.

But pitching isn't all about strikeouts, nor just preventing HR, and the like. Pitching is about getting guys out and not allowing the other team to score. I did my ranking largely based on the FIP and WAR of the major candidates, but using FIP (and to a lesser extent, WAR) does a disservice to guys who successfully pitch to contact. Keith Law's ballot also appears to be largely influenced by FIP and WAR (in fact, his top 3 exactly match the WAR rankings for starting pitching). There's got to be a better way than ERA to evaluate pitching that doesn't rely heavily on strikeouts.

In the end, it is what it is. Carpenter and Wainwright had outstanding seasons. For Cardinal fans, the hope is 2009 wasn't a career year. Perhaps the Cy Young results will help motivate these guys for 2010.

Well... So Much For That

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.

Comeback Player of the Year and Roster moves

Chris Carpenter's outstanding season has been recognized by Major League Baseball with his selection as NL Comeback Player of the Year. Carp put aside all the questions about his health this season and won 17 games, led the majors in winning percentage (.810), and led the NL in ERA (2.24) and ERA+ (185).

Carp also had a 3.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio (144 K vs 38 BB), and allowed 7 home runs this season. Seven. The same number he allowed as a 22 year old rookie in half a season with Toronto. Braden Looper allowed five times that many.

Congratulations, Chris. I hope that's not the end of the post season awards for him.


The Cardinals are finalizing their post-season roster, and although some slots remain to be decided upon, the Post-Dispatch is reporting Khalil Greene has been left off the roster. Khalil did not have a good season by any measure, and would not have contributed much in the playoffs. It's curious he was replaced on the roster by Troy Glaus, who hasn't exactly lit it up either (.250 OBP? Two XBH in 32 PA?). A bench of Jason LaRue, Julio Lugo, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, and Troy Glaus won't strike fear in the hearts of Joe Torre, Charlie Manuel, and Jim Tracy. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have many other attractive options for the bench.

Thirteen position players leaves 12 pitchers. Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Smoltz, Franklin, Miller, Motte, McClellan, and Reyes are most likely locks to make the squad. That leaves Hawksworth, Boggs, Wellemeyer, and Thompson for the last two slots.

There's no good reason to include Wellemeyer on the roster. He has been awful this season both as a starter and a reliever. Hawksworth's been great, but he's also walked 15 hitters in 40 innings, which is not a good ratio for a reliever in the post-season. Boggs is a spot starter and long man, as is Thompson. So the question becomes Boggs or Thompson? Boggs' fastball topps out at about 93 MPH, and he has a 7.14 K/9 ratio. Thompson topps out at 88 MPH, and he has a 3.83 K/9 ratio.

If missing bats is important in the post-season, and current conventional wisdom says yes, Boggs will make the club. However LaRussa is loyal to his veterans, so I could see Thompson making the club too. I'll go with Boggs.

There'll be a series preview up tomorrow.

Masterful

I remember, not so long ago, ESPN broadcast baseball games all day on Labor Day. In fact, I remember watching the Cardinals/Astros game on Labor Day 1996, which was (a) a great game, (b) a game the Cardinals won, and (c) when I knew the Cardinals would win the NL Central that year.

Thanks to the first weekend of CollegeFootball now extending from Friday to Monday, as sponsors continue to grovel at the altar of Ba'al - WHOOPS, I mean The Almighty Dollar - there was no baseball on TV today locally. Except Padres/Giants. Whoopee.

So I'm limited to seeing the score crawl across the screen. 3-0 Cardinals doesn't tell one much, other than the Cards won. Then the line comes up - 'Carpenter - CG, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K' - and I think, wow. That's fantastic, and will certainly help my UCB Fantasy League team in the playoffs (sorry Dan, it's not your year).

In an unrelated story, Carlos Pena breaking two fingers today pretty much ends my chances of winning my work rotisserie league. I was in second, and closing, going into today. CC Sabathia pitches for the team I'm chasing. Coincidence? I think not!

I read the game summary, and was floored. 99 pitches? Two balls hit OUT OF THE INFIELD the entire game against him? My gosh, that's incredible. Carpenter has thrown only one other 1-hitter, a memorable game against his original team, the Blue Jays. He had a certain motivation in that game - he was healthy, Toronto kinda gave up on him - and he dominated them. This game? Carpenter proved, again, how good he is this season.

I just wish I could have seen it.

And again, people who think Lincecum is a slam-dunk to win the Cy Young in 2009 aren't really paying attention. That's no disrespect to Tim Lincecum, but an acknowledgement of how good Chris Carpenter has been this year.

So, the Cards inch closer to their first playoff appearance since winning the whole thing 3 years ago. Let's go to the tote board:

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 14 (Cubs beat Pittsburgh 4-2)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 10
- Houston: 10 (Beat Philadelphia 4-3)
- Cincinnati: 7 (Lost to Colorado 4-3)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

I've adjusted my numbers from the last post due to a math error on my part. Based on these new numbers, the Cubs victory over Pittsburgh eliminates the Pirates from the divisional race. But, we have a nice parting gift: they're still alive for the Wild Card.

Smoltz vs Manny Parra tomorrow. Parra's pitched better against St Louis then he has vs the rest of the league, and the Brewers beat Smoltz in his last start.

What About a Four Man Rotation?

Brad Thompson getting suspended, while Guillermo Mota walks free, is an absolute farce. Hitting a guy up by 13 to protect your hitter is OK, but buzzing a guy up by 7 to protect your hitter isn't? Mota threw with intent, Thompson didn't.

Anyway, on one of the recent United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour shows, Pip from Fungoes raised the question of LaRussa going with a 4-man rotation. After all, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Mitchell Boggs haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. Well they have lit it up, just the wrong way - 10-15, 5+ ERA. Why not just skip that spot in the rotation?

This idea intrigued me.

Starting tomorrow, the Cardinals have 59 games left. With a 5-man rotation, that's 12 starts each for the first 4, and 11 for the #5 slot. With a 4-man rotation, that's 15 starts each for Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero, and 14 for Lohse.

There are a number of off-days between now and the end of the season - 6 to be exact. If they line up right, then the Cardinals could skip 6 starts by the #5 guy. This is good, right?

Well, it's not that good. The off days don't line up exactly like one would want:

6 Aug - Off day
6 games
13 Aug - Off day
10 games
24 Aug - Off day
6 games
31 Aug - Off day
9 games
10 Sept - Off day
6 games
17 Sept - Off day
6 games
24 Sept - Off day
10 games
End regular season.

CC Sabathia threw his last 4 games in 2008 on 3-days rest. Not everyone is CC Sabathia. I definitely don't think the Cardinals will try and pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest, given his medical history. I doubt they'll take that chance/accept that risk with Wainwright or Piniero.

So, if they try to keep them all on 4 days rest, the off-days don't help, and they'll have to use a #5 starter 9 times.

So LaRussa would save himself two starts from Wellemeyer's replacement.

Doesn't sound like its worth it. I like the idea of going with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, and Lohse, but it won't work in practice. Sorry, Pip.

The Chris Duncan Experience

That'd be a good name for a blog, no?

When I was in college, the Villanova basketball had a 5th year senior guard named Pat Enright on the team. Enright was one of those scrappy guys, lots of heart, not really good, who could spell our point guard for a couple of minutes without hurting the team (a helpful talent, as our point guard wasn't really a point guard and we had no true point on the roster). Anyway, my freshman year Villanova made the NCAA tournament, managed to beat Arkansas in the first round, and faced Illinois in the second. Illinois was better, and led by 12 with about 3:30 to play. Villanova began to make a run. As they were picking up steam, and had cut the lead to 9 I believe, Enright got free in the corner.

Pat Enright was not a guy you wanted taking big shots late in the game.

The ball swung around to him, and he launched a three pointer. As it became clear to the 4 of us watching the game in my dorm room that he was going to shoot, we all yelled "NOOOOOOO!" simultaneously at the TV.

Swish.

"GREAT SHOT PAT!!!"

Watching Duncan play yesterday reminded me of that moment. He can be awful in the field - the drop in the sixth inning was just plain ugly - but he can also be very, very clutch. It's just that you never know what you'll see from him until the play is over, so you spend the moments when he is front and center grumbling about what could happen, then, when he comes through, the immediate moments after the play happy about what did happen. HR and 3 RBI will make most forget the defensive adventures he had throughout the game. Hey, it usually works for Alfonso Soriano.

Round 1 to the Cardinals. Wainwright was efficient, and good enough. You're still walking too many guys, Adam. Please work on that. I'd like to welcome Khalil Greene to the Cardinals all-time HR list. It's going to be a fun year needling the locals about Greene if he returns to his 2007 form.

Today, well, most are expecting the Cubs to roll through Walters. With Dave Duncan and Yadier in his corner, he'll have the advantage the first time through the order if he hits his spots. After the third inning, all bets are off. Here's hoping Big Z spent too much time on Facebook last night and doesn't have it today.

Other news: Chris Carpenter has an oblique muscle tear. Just a little more serious than a muscle strain. That explains the 4-8 week timetable for his return. I for one am glad it's not an arm problem. I don't think Walters is with the big club for more than 1 start, although I've been wrong before. Albert Pujols announced he'll be in the HR Derby this year. I would think that just made the HR derby one of the hottest tickets in STL for the All-Star Game week.

That's it from here. Enjoy your weekend. Rotation Round #2 analysis will be up this weekend, as will Bullpen week #2.

Cardinals Roll into Chicago

One interesting thing that's surfaced so far this season is the Cardinals' tendency to 'get even' following a tough loss. After losing 6-4 on Opening Day, they punished the Pirates 9-3. After losing a tough game on Tuesday, they punished the Diamondbacks 12-7. It may just be coincidence, and it is only a 2-game sample, but there you go.

I've posted a preview of the Cubs/Cardinals series over at Cardinals Clubhouse. Here's the link. It says posted by Cardinal70, but that's because I encountered a problem getting the article to post and he was able to correct it. Constructive comments are always welcome; funny comments are appreciated; sarcastic comments will be ignored, and "I'll put your name down in me book".

Carpenter is on the 15 day DL. Early comments say he'll be out 4-8 weeks. Four to Eight Weeks?! Boy that screws up my head-to-head UCB league roster. Actually that's a joke; I have no power, 4 second baseman, and Manny Parra on that team. Last week I was 1-9. I should have named my team the 2008 San Diego Padre Reprise.

I've pulled a few muscles in my lifetime, but never one that required 2 months to heal. I guess this is a function of the violence imparted on the body by the act of throwing a baseball, but wow. Seems a bit long on the recovery progonstication. Makes me wonder if there's not something else going on there.

One mea culpa from yesterday. I asked the question why LaRue didn't hit for Brendan Ryan in yesterday's article. I missed the fact that Ryan Ludwick was also available to pinch hit in the ninth. There a couple of reasons for this; one, I thought I saw Ludwick's name in the box score, and two, somehow I was convinced the Cardinals were carrying 13 pitchers instead of 12, so when 11 players appeared in the box score the only guy left was the back-up catcher. If I had realized Ludwick was available, the question would have echoed what Derrick Goold wrote about yesterday.

I think LaRussa out-thought himself on this one. Ludwick is tearing the cover off the ball right now.

A Bad Day At Bank One

Some of our worst fears are realized - Chris Carpenter tantalizes us with a 7 inning masterpiece, and leaves his next start with an injury. Oh, boy.


Reports this morning indicate it's a left oblique strain and he will likely be headed to the disabled list. Not an arm injury. I'm not optimistic, or even cautiously optimistic, that's true, however; I seem to remember last September, when he left his last game against the Cubs, initial reports were a strained muscle in his back, which turned into another arm problem. All we can do at this point is wait.


Last night's game can be analyzed like a Clint Eastwood film of some note:


- The Good: Cardinals came back from two down in the ninth to tie the game at 6. Rasums, AP, and Thurston all had two hits and RBI in this game.


- The Bad: Carpenter's injury. Blew leads of 3-0 and 4-2. Got the go-ahead run to third with one out in the ninth and left him there (Ryan, Ankiel struck out). Thompson gave up the winning run in the 10th on only 8 pitches.


- The Ugly: Josh Kinney self-destructed in the 8th. Bullpen completely depleted after throwing 6 2/3 innings last night, with a 4-game series in Chicago looming.


I wonder - would Jason LaRue have been a better choice to hit against Qualls? He is 0-2 in 3 plate appearances (the other he was hit by pitch), whereas Ryan had struck out in his only other plate appearance against Qualls (and he struck out last night). I know, LaRue is the backup catcher, and we would have been in a bad way had Molina gotten hurt, but I think the experienced bat would have been a better choice in that situation. Totally Tuesday AM Quarterbacking, by the way. I'd be interested in other opinions on the subject.


Some interesting decisions loom for the Cardinals. Which pitcher comes up to replace Carpenter (early money is on Chris Perez and/or Mitchell Boggs)? Who starts the Sunday night game against Chicago - McClellan? Thompson? Someone else?


Not a good day.


Noon start today in the desert, before flying to the Windy City.

Carpenter Triumphant

Well I think I speak for everyone when I say that couldn't have gone any better.

I've been looking forward to Chris Carpenter's first start ever since it became clear his arm troubles were behind him this spring. Gone was the hesitation and the guarded, almost wistful, optimism the team (and he) put out during press conferences. Carp was throwing well during the spring, and although a concerted and correct effort was made to keep expectations realistic, it seemed he was back to his old self.

Carp's start was a topic of discussion during Wednesday's UCB radio show, and the consensus was 5-6 good innings would be great for his first one; anything beyond that was gravy.

Well, we're swimming in gravy today. Six and 2/3 no-hit ball? Are you kidding me?

In retrospect, I'm relieved he gave up that hit in the seventh. Think about it. This is Carpenter's first start since Sept of last year, and he's spent the better part of 2 years recovering from a variety of arm ailments. You know the Cardinals had him on a strict pitch count. However, LaRussa employs the warrior mentality; let his pitchers go out there and compete. I think it would have been very tough for him to pull Carp after seven, with his pitch count under 90 and a no-hitter going. Giving up the hit, and removing that drama from the game, made the decision to lift Carp much much easier. And it was the correct decision. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

That said, I was really glad the boys managed to push 2 runs across in the home half of the seventh, and set up Carp for the win. He certainly deserved the W based on the effort he gave. It also got AP off the hook for a rare throwing error that led to the Pirates' only run of the game.

An interesting sub-plot in this game is Reyes pitching the ninth. He retired the side in order. Since Motte had such difficulty in his first game, it begs the question if LaRussa will go with a closer by committee approach for a while. Franklin had only worked 2/3 of an inning going into yesterday, and 'protect the lead in the eighth' is his role, so that made sense. Reyes pitched on Tuesday in the blowout, so it may be a case of getting him some high leverage work. Or it could be as simple as McLouth and Hinske hit left handed, and LaRussa wanted to have Doumit hit from the right side (although career-wise all Doumit's power is from the right side, so to turn him around in a one-run game is an interesting decision). Doumit had never faced Reyes before yesterday.

So although I'd rather be 3-1, I'd certainly rather be 2-2 than 1-3.

Today the Houston Astros come to town for a 3-game set. Piniero vs Hampton today, then Wainwright vs Oswalt, and Lohse vs Wandy Rodriguez on Easter Sunday.

As we start the most important 3 days in the Christian calendar, a Happy Easter to you and yours. And remember, in less than 48 hours you can start doing all those things you've given up for the last 40 days. Just don't eat all 3 pounds of chocolate on Easter morning, ok? Let the kids have some of that dark chocolate bunny too...

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday

Here in status-symbol land....

If there has ever been a more apt description of Southern California, I've yet to hear it.

Despite my misgivings, and an attempt to turn American U into the first real Cinderella of the tournament (a role currently filled by Cleveland State), Villanova has advanced into the Sweet 16. Boy they looked good against UCLA yesterday. That's the best I've seen them play all year.

The possibility of a Xavier/Villanova regional final is still very much alive (let's go X today vs Wisconsin), which will initiate a 'border war' of sorts in my family. Here's hoping...


I've neglected the Cardinals for, oh, about two weeks. There is a good reason for this. On Friday 20 March I defended my Masters Thesis as the last hurdle before getting the degree conferred on me. Despite the fact that my Professor blew a sizable hole in our presentation - we did, in retrospect, a poor job explaining the data manipulation we performed to arrive at the conclusion we did - I think it will be good enough. So as you might imagine, prepping for that event, as well as a final presentation and exam in my other class (both of which went much better - aced the presentation, 98 out of 101 on the final), has been all-consuming lately.

But that's all out of the way now. Back to what's REALLY important.

There've been some interesting developments in camp this week.

Ludwick appears to have re-found his confidence, and his approach at the plate. The Grand Slam he hit yesterday is the latest good sign from him. With Ludwick's big bat back, AP has protection, and this club becomes much more dangerous.

Mather's 0-19 slump has not gone unnoticed, which is why David Freese started yesterday at third. A recent UCB topic asked us to predict the 25 man roster on Opening Day. All of us respondents had Mather penciled in at third. That looks to be in jeopardy. If Freese can hit, and Mather continues to struggle, don't be surprised to see Freese starting at third on 6 April. This makes Mozeliak look really intelligent for dumping Edmonds on the lowly Padres for Freese; we turn an aging, physically breaking down CF into a young 3B prospect who steps in for an injured Glaus the very next year. High marks for Mo on that one.

McClellan is getting lit up. This isn't good. He's one of the relative assurances in the bullpen when the Cardinals break camp. Based on his breakout season last year, most of us had him slotted for the high leverage stuff, and possibly the eighth inning as the set-up guy. But he's struggling. Current camp chatter has Motte as the closer and Franklin returning to his eighth inning set up role. McClellan should still make the team - there aren't a lot of good options to replace him from the right side (Boggs? I think not) - but his struggles are cause for a lot of concern. I wonder if his 'be ready to start in case Carpenter breaks down' spring hasn't adversely affected his preparation to pitch in relief.

Speaking of Carpenter, there's a great article about him in today's Post Dispatch. It's got to be tough to have to keep fighting back from injury, and to deal with the fact that your body is a fragile thing now and may betray you at any moment, on any pitch. But Carpenter's spring continues to exceed all expectations, and I for one remain hopeful he will return to his 2005 form this season. OK, not necessarily win the Cy Young, but win 15 games or more. Jason LaRue's comments in the above linked article only serve to solidify my impression that Carp's back, and is going to have a good year.

The article also clears up, at least for me, why Carp is in the #4 starter spot to begin the year - it gets him two starts against the Cubs early in the season. I am statistically challenged this early in the morning, but I believe Carp has had lots of success against the Cubs in his career - which would explain the matchup for such a critical series early in the year.

Enough for now. Enjoy your sunday. If you decide to play any Monkees today, think of me, who will be chasing a pair of 'monkeys' around the house all day.

Odds and Ends

Lots of different topics in here...

The morning show I sometimes listen to on the way to work (XX 1090 AM in San Diego) had a handicapper on this morning discussing the NCAA tournament. The dude (I think his name was Brandon Lang) picked Louisville to win it all (duh) but had them beating...

wait for it....

Yep. VILLANOVA in the final. Personally I think the dude's smoking crack. Although I would probably be unsufferably obnoxious if they did make it that far. For what it's worth, I picked Xavier to win that regional, beating Duke (who knocks out my Wildcats in the regional semifinal).

Lots of interesting stuff being discussed in the UCB topics. Today it was offseason moves by management. Yesterday was the 25 man roster. Monday we considered what number would be retired next by the Cardinals (I voted for 51). I plan to elaborate on some of these topics later on, but if you're not following the blogs as discussions are posted you're missing out. See Cardinal 70 for the complete schedule of blogs posting the discussions.

Chris Carpenter pitched today and went 6 scoreless. I am a crusty old Navy man, but I am giddy - yes, giddy - about how Carp has pitched so far this spring. Fourteen scoreless innings is nothing to sneeze at. As we get closer to Opening Day, and the lineups start to feature more Major League hitters (also the WBC fniishes), we'll know better if this is for real or just a mirage; but the early returns are VERY favorable. I have put my money where my mouth is and drafted Carp for my only 'All MLB' fantasy team. Believe it or not, he's the only Cardinal on my roster. So don't let me down, Carp.

Called into the UCB radio hour last night. Good discussion. If I ever figure out how to post files here, I'll post the audio file. You should call in or at least log on to the chat room - every Wednesday night at 8pm Pacific. There is some discussion about moving the time to allow more participation, so stay tuned for an update.

Finally, there's the World Baseball Classic. As I type this (and although it won't appear until tomorrow morning on the site) the Japanese lead Cuba 3-0 after 5. In foggy Petco Park. Most of the baseball has been pretty good, with some great games. Both Netherlands/Dominican Republic contests were classics. The US' comeback last night against Puerto Rico. It's unfortunate that all of those games were on the MLB network, which virtually no one gets.

The players, most notably Chipper Jones, have raised some issues with the format. I couldn't agree more. Even this is packaged by MLB to make the most money. Let's take a look at some of the areas that cause head-scratching.

- Round Robin play. Only MLB could devise a system where there are 4 teams in a pool, and you may not play the other 3. Why don't they do Pool Play like other major international tournaments do it, like soccer's World Cup for instance? That way, instead of playing beating the Dominican, then losing to Puerto Rico, and having to play the Dominican again, you would play Panama in that third game (this would be what happened to the Netherlands).

You ask how the winner and runner-up of the pool would be determined? Try this. Winners get two points. Games that go to extra innings are a point for each team, with an additional point awarded to the winner. If you beat a team badly enough to activate the mercy rule, you get a bonus point. The two teams with the most points advance. In event of a tie, head to head result is the tie breaker.

This would also eliminate the useless 'seeding' game. It was ridiculous that Japan went 2-0 in pool play in the first round and end up the #2 seed, all because they lost the 'seeding' game to Korea 1-0. Same for the US and Venezuela.

- Rosters. The roster rules need to be more clearly defined. The Dutch manager had a legitimate point when he complained about Brian Roberts being added to the US roster 30 min before game time. MLB is meticulous about roster configuration during the playoffs, and they should show the same kind of rigor for this event.

- Venues. With all the pretty ballparks in this country, Miami's Joe-Robbie-Pro-Player-I-Don't-Know-What's-The-Name-Today-Park-Stadium was the best choice for the second round? Really? What, the Tropicana Dome busy with a Monster Truck Rally? I would have thought Atlanta, or Houston, or Phoenix would be a much better choice - and all 3 cities have a sizeable Hispanic population.

Love the choice of Dodger Stadium for the final, however. Can we park a Camaro at home plate and do a pull-away shot as part of the opening ceremonies?

- Coverage. I was in the car tonight picking up a box at FedEx, and thought I would listen to the game on ESPN Radio. So I turned it on. Turns out, the game was simulcast (which means, for those of you under 30, the same broadcast is being heard on radio and TV). Which means the guy calling the game on TV has to talk to the action so those of us listening on the radio can keep up with what's going on. The guys doing the game have no idea how to cover a game on the radio. These two bozos are chatting away on some ancedote about one of the players, and in the background you hear the crowd start to cheer. This is because Curtis Granderson just singled to right. Only after the cheering gets loud do your trusty play-by-play guys casually mention, Granderson singles to right, before continuing with their conversation.

No number of outs, no score, no count, no 'fastball for a strike', nothing. It's as if they think the audience tunes in to hear them talk about the bunions on their feet and not the game. This is why I used to mute Padres games on local TV (that and I can't stand Matt Vasgerian. Now that he's gone I might turn the volume up again).

I would have thought MLB was flush enough to spring for a second announcing team on the radio. Three years from now, call me and I'll do it for free; so long as MLB pays for my travel, accomodations, and meals.

Consider these helpful suggestions from a concerned citizen.

Arm and Hammer

We got some good news and some ho-hum news yesterday.

First the good news: Carp threw off the mound for about 10 minutes and reported no discomfort. That's the best news this week for Cardinals fans. Of course, with the adrenalin pumping and the excitement of being able to throw from the mound, everything feels great; how he feels physically this morning will be the real test. Duncan correctly pointed that out in the article.

The Cardinals aren't taking any chances with Carp. Kyle McClellan is prepping as if he'll be a starter this spring, and his workouts are the same day as Carp's. Nice planning. If Carp suffers a setback that prevents him from starting the 28 Feb game, McClellan will be ready to step in.

Next step, according to Carp, is to mix in some off-speed stuff and see how the arm responds.

If (and although yesterday's news was encouraging, it's still a big IF) Carp is ready to start the season with the big club, the rotation may shake out to be

Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel 'punching bag' Piniero

One thru four were pretty good last season. Not to drink the Kool-Aid, but all indications are Piniero worked his butt off getting ready for this season (oh yes, it is the final year of his contract), so he could be much improved over last season, which would make this a very good rotation.

The ho-hum news is all the banter about Rick Ankiel's arbitration hearing, scheduled for today. Seems the Cardinals offered him $2.35M and he wants $3.3M. I'll tell ya, in this economic environment I'll take the $950K difference and be quite happy thank you very much, but that's not how this cookie crumbles.

So it's Scott Boras and his stat-heads against the Cardinals. The Cardinal front office apparently has a couple of guys who worked arbitration issues for MLB in the past (John Abbamondi specifically, and he specialized in this stuff for 4 years). Boras is 3-5 in his past 8 arbitration hearings, and is widely considered to be an ass, so I'm sure that won't help Ankiel.

Rick is in Phoenix today for the hearing.

Yes, Phoenix. Apparently the hearing's in a hotel.

I find this incredibly funny. MLB is a multi-billion dollar operation, but they don't have an arbitration room/wing/floor in their coroprate offices to hold these kinds of hearings? Does the MLB players association not have an office building where they could do this kind of hearing? They have to do it in a hotel room?

I wonder if this is the notification Ankiel got: "Hey, your hearing is 12 Feb 09 at the Days Inn. Take 10 West out of the airport past Avondale. It's the first Days Inn you see off the highway. We're in the room with the Mystery Machine parked in out front."

8 guys crammed into a room with 2 queen-size beds deciding how much Ankiel gets paid next season. That would be hilarious.

Carp to throw today; Cardinals torn between Waffle House and IHOP

Citing it as the 'bullpen session upon which the rest of the season rests', Chris Carpenter will throw today to test his sore tricep. For the first time, at least to my eyes, Carp admitted there was more than just muscle discomfort that drove him from his 11 August start against Chicago; there's discomfort when 'he raises his arm to a specific position'.

Ugh.

So Carp may be on the shelf for the rest of the year. OK, no problem; we've got Wainwright waiting in the wings. the Post-Dispatch story is accurate about when the Cardinals need a fifth starter next (2 Sept at Arizona). Assuming LaRussa/Duncan leave the rotation as is (which they may not, given the 6 off-days the teams has from now until the end of the year), here's how it stacks up. August opponents are here, September ones here.

19 Aug - Looper
20 Aug -Wellemeyer
21 Aug - OFF
22 Aug - Piniero
23 Aug - Lohse
24 Aug - Looper
25 Aug - OFF
26 Aug - Wellemeyer (Brewers)
27 Aug - Piniero (Brewers)
28 Aug - OFF
29 Aug - Lohse
30 Aug - Looper
31 Aug - Wellemeyer
1 Sept - Piniero
2 Sept - TBD
3 Sept - Lohse
4 Sept - OFF
5 Sept - Looper
6 Sept - Wellemeyer
7 Sept - Piniero
8 Sept - OFF
9 Sept - Lohse (Cubs)
10 Sep - Looper (Cubs)
11 Sep - Wellemeyer (Cubs)
12 Sep - Piniero
13 Sep - TBD
14 Sep - Lohse
15 Sep - OFF
16 Sep - Looper
17 Sep - Wellemeyer
18 Sep - Piniero
19 Sep - Lohse (at Wrigley)
20 Sep - TBD (at Wrigley)
21 Sep - Looper (at Wrigley)
22 Sep - Wellemeyer
23 Sep - Piniero
24 Sep - Lohse
25 Sep - TBD
26 Sep - Looper
27 Sep - Wellemeyer
28 Sep - Piniero

Later on in the Post-Dispatch story, this gem of a quote appears, attributed to John Mozeliak:

General manager John Mozeliak doesn't want to feed speculation. Yet
Mozeliak admits Carpenter's status directly affects how and when starter
Adam Wainwright returns from a 2½-month absence.

"I don't see it as that big a deal," Mozeliak said Monday about Carpenter's
toss. "I think it's important to get both guys back. (Today) might define how
Wainwright could be used. But in terms of how the next two weeks shake out,
I don't think it makes that much difference."

You're kidding, right? Not that big a deal? Having Wellemeyer (ok) and Piniero (crapshoot) start the two most important games remaining on the schedule (against the Brewers, based on current standings) is OK, vice having Wainwright or Carp potentially start one of them (and Carpenter is eligible to come off the DL 26 August)? WOW. Agreed, to throw Wainwright against Milwaukee in a high leverage, high intensity game right off the bat isn't ideal; nor is throwing Carp in the same situation his first start back off the DL, but I think even Mozeliak would agree both are better pitchers than Piniero.

The other thing I can't believe from that article is the idea that Wainwright, if not shifted to the back end of the bullpen (and Perez/McClellan have so far proven up to the task of closing out games), would be used in long relief:

"Different" doesn't necessarily mean Wainwright would return immediately as the Cardinals' closer. Rookie Chris Perez's positive showing since inheriting the closer's role from Jason Isringhausen means Wainwright could be activated to work in long relief.

I almost spit coffee on the screen after reading that sentence. We're fighting for a playoff spot, Wainwright has been the team's best starter since the all-star break last year, and the best thing for this team is to relegate him to long relief?

DOUBLE WOW.

What in the name of Ken Reitz is going on here?

If Saturday was better, Sunday could be far, far worse

My father-in-law's birthday was Saturday, so we had a small family party for him last night. While barbequing a few steaks (provided by my mom-in-law, and you should have seen the size of these pieces of meat - Brontosaurus burgers, indeed) I managed to monitor the Cardinals/Cubs game until the bottom of the fourth. Although I didn't see the Cubs score their unearned run in the second.

By the time the TV came on again, it was the sixth, and Villone was on the mound. I assumed Carpenter had hit his pitch limit of 80 pitches, as reported by ESPN during the bottom of the first. As you know, that inning rapidly fell apart thanks to a key error (Kennedy), a couple of balls just out of reach, and a booming double by Cedeno.

Imagine my dismay to open stltoday.com and see this.

My opinion: After taking essentially a year off, this game was the first real high-adrenalin game Carpenter's pitched since opening day 2007 - arch rival, hostile crowd, meaningful game. I think he tweaked his triceps muscle with the effort. Smart decision by Chris not to power through it and pull it vice strain it. Obviously we'll know more today based on his level of soreness. The report that he experienced no discomfort in his shoulder is great news. The report that the pain didn't radiate down his arm is also good.

With him we have a puncher's chance to get back into the race. Without him, well, being 7 out of the divisional lead and 3 back in the Wild Card already makes that a very tough task.

On to Florida. Some other random thoughts:

In their most recent 7 games against their two main rivals, the Cardinals have lost 6 of 7. Their only win was Saturday. More painfully, they were in at least 3 other games, leading all those in the seventh (and on 2 occasions, leading in the ninth).

The club outscored Chicago 16-12 in the series. Unfortunately 12 of those runs came in one game.

My obvious team loyalty has allowed me to believe the Cardinals could still catch Chicago this season. Being 7 back (8 on the lost side) with 42 to go makes that somewhat unlikely. Assume the Cubs go 22-22 over their next 44 games. St Louis would need to go 28-14 just to catch them. More damning is this. This weekend, whenever the Cubs needed to make a play they did, starting with Lilly's pitch to Looper on the suicide squeeze Friday and ending with Fukudome's catch in the ninth last night. Whenever the Cardinals needed to make a play, starting with Looper's bunt attempt and ending with Ludwick's strikeout against Samardzija in the seventh last night, they didn't always make it. That difference separates the good teams from the contending teams. That difference will keep the Cubs in front in this division, and (gulp) the favorite to represent the NL come October.

I'm not giving up; I'll never give up. But that's a good team playing confidently and playing well. They're not going to trip. It's getting late in the day to make a run.