Cards win despite Wellemeyer

We didn't learn anything new last night. Wellemeyer v.2008 is merely a passing memory, replaced by Wellemeyer v. 2009, who sucks. I didn't think it would be possible to see Todd's ERA go up last night, but he exceeded expectations and did just that.

In fairness, he hasn't pitched at all really since 30 July, so I was expecting a lack of command and early fatigue, figuring he'd be out of the game after 5 at the most. But Wellemeyer didn't really walk anyone (1 in his 4 innings), and his first pitch command better than expected (21 batters faced, 5 1-0 counts, 13 0-1 counts (10 of those were strike one looking), 3 hitters put the first pitch in play). He also only had four 3-ball counts last night, and all four were within the first 6 hitters he faced.

Not pitching from behind early in the count, not a lot of deep counts - what happened? Sounds like he was wild in the strike zone, or in other words, left a lot of pitches up and out over the plate. Wellemeyer had 4 swinging strikes all night - by the same two hitters (1 in each of Uggla's at bats, 2 in the same Cameron Maybin at bat). Other pitches Marlins swung at were either fouled off or put in play. That's wild in the strike zone.

LaRussa refused to speculate as to when Wellemeyer's next appearance would be, which based on his performance is a valid position.

The problem is, now the Cardinals are showing some cracks at the back end of the rotation. Wellemeyer hasn't been right all year, Lohse hasn't been right since getting hit by a pitch, Smoltz has shoulder tendinitis. So where does the team go from here? Hawksworth has nailed down a slot in the bullpen as the 6th/7th inning guy, so he's not an option. Boggs? Possible as the #4 guy, but that still leaves a hole at #5.

Do we dare give a start to Thompson?

I will say this, having a 9.5 game lead is a huge luxury right now. I'd not want to face these kinds of decisions only leading by 2 or 3 games.

And a quick word about Lohse. The PD is reporting today he had discomfort during and after his Saturday start, although an MRI he had Sunday was 'unexceptional'. Lohse still has 3 years remaining on a $41 million contract. Here's a radical thought: shut down Lohse for the season. He's ineffective and hasn't been able to heal - why risk more damage?

The Cardinals face a rookie left-hander today. Let's hope the offensive explosion from yesterday keeps going.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 10 (Cubs beat Milwaukee 2-0)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 4 (lost to Cincinnati 3-1)
- Milwaukee: 4 (lost to Cubs)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Carp to throw today; Cardinals torn between Waffle House and IHOP

Citing it as the 'bullpen session upon which the rest of the season rests', Chris Carpenter will throw today to test his sore tricep. For the first time, at least to my eyes, Carp admitted there was more than just muscle discomfort that drove him from his 11 August start against Chicago; there's discomfort when 'he raises his arm to a specific position'.

Ugh.

So Carp may be on the shelf for the rest of the year. OK, no problem; we've got Wainwright waiting in the wings. the Post-Dispatch story is accurate about when the Cardinals need a fifth starter next (2 Sept at Arizona). Assuming LaRussa/Duncan leave the rotation as is (which they may not, given the 6 off-days the teams has from now until the end of the year), here's how it stacks up. August opponents are here, September ones here.

19 Aug - Looper
20 Aug -Wellemeyer
21 Aug - OFF
22 Aug - Piniero
23 Aug - Lohse
24 Aug - Looper
25 Aug - OFF
26 Aug - Wellemeyer (Brewers)
27 Aug - Piniero (Brewers)
28 Aug - OFF
29 Aug - Lohse
30 Aug - Looper
31 Aug - Wellemeyer
1 Sept - Piniero
2 Sept - TBD
3 Sept - Lohse
4 Sept - OFF
5 Sept - Looper
6 Sept - Wellemeyer
7 Sept - Piniero
8 Sept - OFF
9 Sept - Lohse (Cubs)
10 Sep - Looper (Cubs)
11 Sep - Wellemeyer (Cubs)
12 Sep - Piniero
13 Sep - TBD
14 Sep - Lohse
15 Sep - OFF
16 Sep - Looper
17 Sep - Wellemeyer
18 Sep - Piniero
19 Sep - Lohse (at Wrigley)
20 Sep - TBD (at Wrigley)
21 Sep - Looper (at Wrigley)
22 Sep - Wellemeyer
23 Sep - Piniero
24 Sep - Lohse
25 Sep - TBD
26 Sep - Looper
27 Sep - Wellemeyer
28 Sep - Piniero

Later on in the Post-Dispatch story, this gem of a quote appears, attributed to John Mozeliak:

General manager John Mozeliak doesn't want to feed speculation. Yet
Mozeliak admits Carpenter's status directly affects how and when starter
Adam Wainwright returns from a 2½-month absence.

"I don't see it as that big a deal," Mozeliak said Monday about Carpenter's
toss. "I think it's important to get both guys back. (Today) might define how
Wainwright could be used. But in terms of how the next two weeks shake out,
I don't think it makes that much difference."

You're kidding, right? Not that big a deal? Having Wellemeyer (ok) and Piniero (crapshoot) start the two most important games remaining on the schedule (against the Brewers, based on current standings) is OK, vice having Wainwright or Carp potentially start one of them (and Carpenter is eligible to come off the DL 26 August)? WOW. Agreed, to throw Wainwright against Milwaukee in a high leverage, high intensity game right off the bat isn't ideal; nor is throwing Carp in the same situation his first start back off the DL, but I think even Mozeliak would agree both are better pitchers than Piniero.

The other thing I can't believe from that article is the idea that Wainwright, if not shifted to the back end of the bullpen (and Perez/McClellan have so far proven up to the task of closing out games), would be used in long relief:

"Different" doesn't necessarily mean Wainwright would return immediately as the Cardinals' closer. Rookie Chris Perez's positive showing since inheriting the closer's role from Jason Isringhausen means Wainwright could be activated to work in long relief.

I almost spit coffee on the screen after reading that sentence. We're fighting for a playoff spot, Wainwright has been the team's best starter since the all-star break last year, and the best thing for this team is to relegate him to long relief?

DOUBLE WOW.

What in the name of Ken Reitz is going on here?