UCB Topic - Top 5 Stories of 2009

We bring 2009 to a close with one man's opinion on the Top 5 Cardinal related stories of the year.

I know/assume several posts tomorrow will cover the playoff run, Wainwright/Carpenter and the Cy Young Award, the All-Star Game, the DeRosa trade, the Holliday trade, the Lugo trade, Dave Duncan's hissy fit with the media regarding their treatment of his son, NLDS Game 2, David Freese imbibing enough alcohol to kill a small horse yet still stay semi-coherent (but he doesn't have a drinking problem, nooooo), the Scott Boras/John Mozeliak Mexican Standoff, and so on. Let's take a different tack. Let's look at five interesting events regarding the Cardinal Blogger Community.

(drum roll, please)

IN order, I present the Top 5 Cardinal Blogger Events of 2009.

5. Erik Manning joins Fangraphs
If you're smart, you surround yourself with smart people willing to tell you when you're wrong. If you're dumb, you surround yourself with smart people to keep youself out of trouble. I'll reserve for others to determine where I fall on this scale, but Erik Manning is undoubtedly smart.

The brains behind Future Redbirds for years, Erik joined the Fangraphs team this past June (it's the bottom post on the link; sorry I couldn't get the story to come up solo). I surf over there a lot. I started reading Fangraphs because I liked what Dave Cameron had to say about baseball at U.S.S. Mariner, and he contributes at Fangraphs often. It was a nice mid-season surprise to see Erik's name on the ledger. "HEY! I know that guy!"

Well OK, I 'know' him through the UCB and Facebook, and the occasional interview at the UCB Radio Hour, but still - it's a brush with greatness for all of us. We all knew he was knowledgable; now a whole new audience knows it too. Congrats to Erik (again).

4. Fox Sports Midwest Live Game Blogs with a UCB flavor
This season saw FSMW start doing a live game blog for the Thursday day games. This was a cool idea, and it worked well, at least from my perspective. There was some delay between typing a comment and seeing it in the chat room, and some drop-out issues, but overall it was a positive development for Cardinal broadcasts.

For me personally, it offered the opportunity to interact with other Cardinal fans while watching/tracking the game on my computer. And, the middle innings coincided with my lunch break at work, so I could happily munch on a sandwich while following the game, with a few snide comments and/or insight thrown in.

For the UCB, it offered another forum to promote the group. UCB members were conspicuous during the broadcasts, and on at least one occasion the FSMW moderator mentioned the UCB Radio Hours during the broadcast. I don't think it ever made the actual telecast, but the publicity from the live chat was huge. More exposure, more fans listening, more discussion on the Cardinals. That's why it checks in at #4.

3. Cardinal 70 founds the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, immediately crosses swords with the BBWAA.
The UCB is full of movers and shakers, isn't it? How did I hoodwink them into extending me membership? Let's not ask that question. The UCB has been a big success in it's 2 years, so Dan decided to expand his reach and form a loose coalition of baseball bloggers.

Great idea. Get writers from all the major league teams, as well as some general blogs, together to talk baseball. The BBA has it's own website and everything.

Because we're intelligent people who like intelligent discussion, we decided to offer our own thoughts on who should win the Cy Young, MVP, ROY, and Manger of the Year awards for 2009. Dan then published those results to the media contacts he had in his Rolodex, er, his email address book. Innocent fun, right?

Sure. Until the BBWAA took exception to the BBA 'awarding' the awards, and so stated their angst via email. Clearly Dan's intention was not to try and usurp the BBWAA (right, Dan?), but they didn't see it that way. From my perspective, this event was proof of two things:

A. Media types actually read Dan's email (positive)
B. It was publicity, and any publicity is good publicity (also positive).

2. Interviews, Muffed Interviews, and More Interviews
The All Star Game in St Louis provided a lot of story ideas for both the media and us humble bloggers. Bank of America marketing hit upon the bright idea to use Cardinal HOF and Legends as spokesmen for their MLB Checking, and had these men make appearances throughout the St Louis area.

They also offered them up for interviews, which presented the UCB with the unique opportunity to talk to a Hall of Famer. Members of the guild spoke with Ozzie Smith, Bruce Sutter, and Lou Brock.

Additionally, we attempted to interview Al Hrabowsky, but due to technical difficulties that never happened.

Finally, our success with the HOF men opened a door to interview Bill DeWitt III, which we did as a group in October.

That's a big story, and probably would be the biggest blogger story of 2009 if not for the next one.

1. Fungoes selected for ESPN's SweetSpot Network
Rob Neyer is a good writer at ESPN, taking a bit more saber-metric centered approach to his baseball analysis. Sometime during 2009, he decided to create a Network made up of 30 blog authors, one for each ML team.

His SweetSpot Network debuted just before the playoffs started. The first 8 blogs announced were for the 8 playoff teams. Representing the Cardinals was Pip from Fungoes. Pip, like Erik, is undoubtedly smart. And again, his selection reflects well on the UCB.

The fact that ESPN decided to create a Network comprised of fan blogs is testament to the impact bloggers have had on how sports news is disseminated and consumed. One might argue other Cardinal blogs deserved to be selected, but no one will argue Fungoes' selection was a poor or misguided one. Recognition by a mainstream media organization like ESPN is a major step forward for blogging as a whole, and big news in the UCB. Congratulations, Pip (again) - this event is the top Cardinal blogger story of 2009.

UCB Topic: 2009 Cardinal Blogger Awards

This is the third consecutive year for the Blogger awards. and I'm back in the saddle after not submitting a ballot in 2008. It's a fun look back at the past year. The final results of the voting will be put up at Dan's site at some point; I wouldn't expect it to happen tomorrow, but most likely by Thanksgiving.

So, on to the voting:

1. Cardinal Player of the Year - Albert Pujols. Could there be any other? The NL MVP favorite. He's won the Fielding Bible award for his defense at first, and the Silver Slugger for NL first basemen as well. His 188 OPS+ led the league for the second year in a row and third time in 4 years. Easy.

2. Cardinal Pitcher of the Year - Chris Carpenter. This might take some of the sting out of finishing second in the Cy Young voting. Honorable Mention - Joel Pineiro.

3. Game of the Year - 29 July 09 (Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2 (15)). Widely considered to be the best game of the season at the time. This game saw a classic pitchers duel between Pineiro and Clayton Kershaw; a clutch single from Colby Rasmus to tie it up in the bottom of the ninth; a rare (at that time) bad Franklin outing; Ludwick tying the game at 2-2 in the eleventh, then throwing out Ramirez trying to score in the twelfth; and finally AP knocking in the winner with a booming shot to CF in the fifteenth. Honorable Mention: August 23 09 at San Diego - Smoltz's debut, AP's 40th HR, Franklin's meltdowns start in earnest. I was there, too.

4. Surprise Player of the Year - Brendan Ryan. He gets the nod here because most observers did not expect him to evolve into the everyday shortstop, which on May 19 is exactly what he was. Honorable Mention: Blake Hawksworth, Joel Pineiro.

5. Disappointing Player of the Year - Kyle Lohse. Khalil Greene is too easy a choice, and let's face it: based on his 2009 numbers are pretty similar to his 2008 ones. No, it's gotta be Lohse, who followed his 15-win campaign in 2008 with a 6 win effort in 2009. To be fair, the hit by pitch really screwed up his year, as opposed to Lohse just sucking out loud; but no matter what the reason or why, he didn't perform as we had hoped. Which makes him the disappointing player for 2009. Honorable Mention: K. Greene, Rick Ankiel.

6. Cardinal Rookie of the Year - Colby Rasmus. Led all NL CF in UZR/150 (13.4), and was having a ROY-caliber season when he got hurt in July. Honorable Mention: Blake Hawksworth.

7. Off-season Acquisition of the Year - Trever Miller. Signed for $500k on 12/3/08, he ended up being the better of the two left-handed specialists, and one of the most reliable guys period out of the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.

8. Mid-season Acquisition of the Year - Matt Holliday. Let's see... DeRosa was hurt, Julio Lugo can't play defense, Smoltz - well, Smoltz was pretty good. But Holliday's arrival helped spur the Cardinals to their best month of the season (August), and vaulted them into the playoffs. Honorable Mention - John Smoltz.

9. Most Anticipated Cardinal - David Freese. If he can hit and play defense at the major league level like he did last season in the high minors, the Cardinals will have an ecomonical bat under their control and a big contributor in the middle of the order.

10. Best Individual Blog - Stan Musial's Stance. If I don't vote for myself, who will? OK, OK, OK. Let's invoke the 'can't vote for yourself' rule. In that case, Fungoes gets the nod. Not only do I learn something every time I stop by, Pip was selected to represent the Cardinal Bloggers in Rob Neyer's SweetSpot Network. Can't do much better than that.

11. Best Team Blog - Pitchers Hit Eighth. Viva El Birdos is still very good, but I prefer the insight I get from Nick and Josh.

12. Best Media Blog - Derrick Goold's Bird Land.

13. Best UCB Project - UCB Debate Day. I thought it was an intriguing idea - ask a question with two possibilities, then have each possibility covered by a different blogger. It made for some interesting reading, especially when the writer was arguing for a position he might not actually believe in. I also thought my 'Cubs aren't the Cardinals biggest rival' was one of my five best, so far, in 2009.

14. Most Optimistic Cardinal Blog - Pass. I can't differentiate between the blogs. Everyone in the UCB is optimistic and pessimistic, as appropriate given the situation.

15. Funniest Cardinal Blog - None. We're all pretty good writers, but high comedy isn't our strongest suit. Perhapst Fredbird Follys will fill the void here in 2010.

16. Rookie Blog of the Year - Pass. I can't keep track of all the blogs out there. I've no idea which blogs have been around 'forever' and which just started up last week.

UCB topic - Blogger Round Table

The United Cardinal Bloggers are in the midst of their semi-annual roundtable discussions. Our focus at this time of the year is on roster construction for next year. Or, at least, that's the gist the questions have taken.

Links to the transcripts for the first 4 questions can be found here.

Friday I posed the following topic for discussion:

Let's look at the starting rotation. Currently the Cardinals have 3 names penciled in for 2010: Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse. For the last two slots:

Do the Cardinals promote from within? Given LaRussa/Duncan's seeming preference for veteran arms in the rotation, is this a workable plan should they come back for 2010? Who has the best shot of winning a starting slot (and if you could estimate the odds or percent chance of someone making it, like Jamie Garcia - 80%, that'd be cool)?

Or, do the Cardinals sign a veteran arm on the cheap? How much would constitute cheap (years/dollars)? Who should they target?

It didn't generate as much discussion as I had thought/hoped, but anyway, here are some Cardinal Blogger opinions:

Dan (C70 at the Bat):I think, due to the two slots, the Cards do both.

I really think that John Smoltz is going to return to the Redbirds. If he wants to play, it'll be in St. Louis, probably on a one year deal. That takes care of your #4, at least initially. The odds of him making it through the whole season without some down time are pretty slim, but that's where he'll be Opening Day.

The fifth slot will be someone from within the organization. I think you are about right on with your example. I'd say there's at least an 80% chance that name is Jaime Garcia. He's the obvious frontrunner. It'll be interesting to see if bullpen stalwarts Kyle McClellan and Blake Hawksworth get a shot. I'd guess the odds of either one of them getting the job, though, are around 10%. There could be someone that impresses in the spring and wins the fifth starter slot, like a Lance Lynn, but I wouldn't count on it.

Nick (Pitchers Hit Eighth): In my mind, there are four names to fill the two slots. Jaime Garcia. Mitchell Boggs. PJ Walters. John Smoltz.

Garcia’s performance in his rehab from Tommy John surgery was very impressive, and another off-season of conditioning and preparation should put him in a fantastic position to win a rotation spot come spring. How nice will it be to have a lefty back in the rotation in St. Louis? I hesitate to be too bold, but I’d put Garcia’s chances of being in the 2010 rotation at about 95%.

Boggs and Walters are both in the same boat, in my opinion. Either one could put together a really strong spring and make a case for the rotation, or at least a Brad Thompson-ish role with long relief and spot starts out of the bullpen. Neither has created any distance from the other, nor really embarrassed. Chances of either one breaking camp in the rotation? 25%.

If Smoltz wants to pitch in 2010 (and it seems he does) and the Cards want him back as a starter, I envision it being an easy deal to get done. Probably a one year, $5mm contract or something similar. Smoltz could be a serviceable 4 or 5 while bridging the gap to some of the youngsters still developing (as well as providing some sage advice).

I hesitate to speculate on any other free agents that may be signed, because I feel like they have enough options internally or re-signing Smoltz that may preclude them from entering that market. As we are all aware, they are clearly focusing their payroll money elsewhere for the time being.

One wild card I want to throw out there… Mike Parisi. Parisi is also coming off of a Tommy John procedure, and is pitching out in Arizona. For some reason even unbeknownst to me, I’ve rooted for the guy since his first call-up with the big club. He apparently had the stuff at one time to warrant a promotion, and if his elbow is right, he just may surprise some folks. At the very least, expect his name to be discussed at spring training.

Following Nick's response, I followed up to the group with a specific question about going after Ben Sheets:

Just for the sake of argument, and realizing their money priorities are elsewhere, would Ben Sheets be someone they could consider? After a full year off, he might sign for $5M per year.

Unfortunately, no one had a chance to respond to that thought before we went to post.

Update: Josh from Pitchers Hit Eighth weighs in with:

For me the rotation is already set so I guess you can put my % at 99.9 just so I can be viciously laughed at in March.

I want Smoltz back in the 4th spot, just because he was one of the very few bright spots to the end the season. He is also a perfect player coach to keep Wainer grounded, Lohse thinking positive, and mentor for my fifth starter.

Garcia adds not only a lefty to the rotation but a shot of youth into a fairly vet-laden staff. Even Hawk has seemingly been around the Cards forever, so call it a competition with every and all Memphis starter for the remaining spot.

St. Louis a real chance to have all five starters in double digits with Garcia and a little luck on the health side. With that and LaDunc back in the fold, I smell a much longer run than just the NLDS.

Update #2 Matt from Fungoes adds:

While Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse are generally healthy, Chris Carpenter still represents a lot of risk in the injury department. As such, the Cardinals would be wise to hedge their bets with the rest of the rotation and aim for players without a lot of injury baggage (read: younger pitchers).

Furthermore, it seems doubtful that the team would be able to sign someone with as much upside as any of the pitchers currently in their system. Blake Hawksworth started a majority of his minor-league games, and though his BB and SO rates have declined in his last two minor-league seasons, he showed a Pineiro-like propensity for ground balls in his rookie campaign (53.8%). He'll need to improve on his BB rate and K/BB (1.33) rate, though, and his low HR rate was perhaps misleading due to a below-normal HR/FB rate (5.3%). Ditto Mitchell Boggs, who is in a similar position as Hawksworth and had a similarly unimpressive K/BB rate (1.39)

Jaime Garcia is probably the most talented of the in-system options, but may need some AAA time to sharpen his arsenal before returning to the bigs. If he doesn't come north out of camp, he'd be an excellent midseason addition and/or Carpenter fill-in. Another option would be for him to make the team as a midrange reliever.

Assuming Smoltz a) wants to pitch again, b) wants to do so for the Cardinals and c) wants less than his 2009 salary, he -- on an incentive-laden deal -- would be a fine choice for one of the open slots.

My personal thoughts on this are mixed. If John Smoltz really enjoyed his time as a Cardinal, and there's been nothing (to my knowledge) indicating he didn't, then bringing him back on the cheap is a distinct possibility. He signed a 1-year, $5.5M contract to play with Boston in 2009. I would think something in that ball park, with the $5.5M figure being as high as the Cardinals would go, would get him in the rotation for 2010.

However, as Nick accurately points out, the Cardinals intend to spend their money elsewhere this off-season, so there might not be enough cash available to sign Smoltz. In that case they build from within. Jamie Garcia is the popular name to throw out as an early front-runner for a slot, but it will come down to who performs in Spring Training. I would expect Kyle McClellan, Blake Hawksworth, Brad Thompson, PJ Walters, Garcia, and probably someone we don't know yet to compete for the two open slots.

Regarding my follow-up question: I think Sheets would need to be approached much like Smoltz might be - with a max salary ceiling of about $5M for a 1-year deal. I would think, after a year off, Sheets would want a short-term deal just to re-establish his bona fides as a legitimate Staff Ace, then seek fame and fortune elsewhere. Why not sign with a playoff contender?

As always, your comments are welcome.

The Post Where I Agree With Everybody

Much like Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs, I'm glad the Angels won last night. This means there'll be baseball on Saturday night. In my Plato-ideal world, the California Angels will win tomorrow night too, forcing baseball on Sunday.

At some level, the AL teams should be happy their ALCS is extended another game, shortening the time off they will have between the conclusion of this series and the start of the World Series. Remember the 2006 Tigers? They had a week off, and it showed during their WS loss to St Louis - they were rusty. Hard to believe after a 6-month season a team could get that far out of whack with 7 days off, but remember: the only break of comparable length is the 4 days off around the All-Star Break. These guys are used to playing every day.

Which is another reason why the long breaks between series, and the indefensible off-day between Games 4 and 5 of the LCS, is so exasperating. I believe MLB is actually hurting the competitive nature of the playoffs by artifically extending the schedule. No I don't have any hard statistical evidence to back that up; I hope to develop this thesis during the off-season. But philosophically, here's the jist of my argument. If MLB teams craft their rosters to compete over a 162-game season, negate that team aspect of the game during the post-season? Specifically with starting pitching. I don't know if this will just be me proposing another unpopular opinion that has no basis in fact. But I hope to soon.

Phillies the best team in the NL. Obviously we say that now since they've won the League title. But based on how the playoffs played out, Philadelphia has the best team. Best lineup, best pitching staff, deepest bench, solidifying bullpen. If the NL is to win the World Series for the third time in 4 years, this Philadelphia team gives the league its best shot. And for those who think the Yankees will win the LCS and roll over the NL in the Series: I believe this will be a better Series than you do. I believe it will go at least 6. And I believe the Phillies has a good shot at repeating.

Oh, the wonders of pitch selection. In two key situations during the ALCS, the pitch thrown has made me question what the pitcher/catcher were thinking. The first was the 0-2 fastball Fuentes left up in the zone to A-Rod in Game 2. I still can't get over this. Behind A-Rod was Guzman and Gardner. A-Rod was the only bat in that inning that had even a remote chance of hurting the Angels (of the three scheduled hitters). YOU'RE AHEAD 0-2. Why throw him anything in the strike zone, especially after throwing 2 fastballs for strikes. Now, A-Rod might have gotten a pitch later in the at-bat to hit; we don't know. But that pitch was ridiculous.

The other was Hughes' 1-2 fastball to Vladimir Guerrero last night. Tim McCarver went on and on about how lousy this pitch choice was, especially after Guerrero looked really bad on the 1-1 curveball the pitch before. As near as I can tell, of the 18 pitches Hughes threw in the seventh 3 were curveballs, and on all three he got a swinging strike (I can't seem to get GameDay on MLB.com to come up from work. Crap.). Seeing as Guerrero is a dead fastball hitter, WHY throw a fastball in that count? And as it turned out, why throw a straight 4-seam fastball in that count?

Intentional Walks. Joe Posnanski is on record for hating the intentional walk on principle, in almost any instance. I've never thought much about the intentional walk per se; I believe there are times when it is called for, if used properly. However, I don't believe Fuentes' intentional walk of A-Rod was one of those times. Why? Because:

- There were two outs in the ninth and no one on.
- Scioscia basically admitted, 'I don't trust my highly-paid closer to get A-Rod out with the game on the line.' What happens when, tomorrow or Sunday night, Fuentes has to get A-Rod out with no where to put him? Is Scioscia going to take Fuentes out in that situation?
- It seemed to get into Fuentes' head. He couldn't find the plate to the next two hitters, walking Matsui and hitting Cano. He jumped ahead 0-2 to Swisher because Swisher went to the plate with his head up his ass. I mean, seriously: Fuentes suddenly has command issues, so why are you hacking at the first two things he throws up there?

The Angels were lucky to survive and win last night's game.

At any rate, the UCB is conducting a round-robin this week. I'll have a question and responses up on Monday here and at the UCB Home Page. Also, the BBA is voting on MVPs, so I'll have that story up over there Monday as well (there'll be a link to the BBA site here Monday afternoon).

That Was Less Fun Than Expected

Going into the Atlanta series, I thought their pitching could cause the Cardinals some trouble. I even went pessimistic with my predictions, saying Atlanta could win 2 of 3. But I didn't expect to get swept.

Not much to say about Friday's game. Pineiro was good, but Jurrjens was better. I remember thinking when Detroit decided to traid Jurrjens away for Renteria that the Braves had done quite well; Jurrjens looked good as a rookie in 2007, and was going to improve. He hasn't become the #2 starter I expected, yet, but he's only 23 years old, so it's not like he's over the hill or anything.

Saturday? Just frustrating. I've become so inured to the Cardinals not being on the Fox game of the week that I don't even look at the listings anymore, I just assume we'll get to watch the Mets or Yankees or Red Sox or some lousy game pitting two west coast teams. So I was somewhat surprised to turn the game on in the bottom of the fourth and see the Cardinals on. They were down 4-2 at that point.

Not seeing that it was a lazy Saturday afternoon, and that the kids had decided to take a nap (or at least remain in their respective rooms being quiet), I dozed for most of the next hour. Somehow I managed to wake up for the bottom half of each inning and watch the Cardinals strand 10000 runners on base through 8 innings.

And what a bizarre bottom of the eighth. Notwithstanding Franklin's blown save in the ninth, the Cardinals should have blown the game open in the eighth - Atlanta tried to hand them that game. First, though, proper kudos need to be given to Mark DeRosa. He caught a break on the passed ball, because McCann had a play on him at second if he doesn't double clutch the throw. The steal of third was genius. It also led the the rest of the inning; because of the steal, Bobby Cox brought the infield in, which meant that Molina's line drive was too hot for Escobar instead of an out and DeRosa was able to score the tying run.

Then the ridiculous started. Jones let's a ball get through the 5-hole. A blown flip on a double play grounder from Schumaker. A flat out miss of a tag on Schumaker going down the line, followed by LaRoche not throwing back down to second to try and get the out, giving the Cardinals the lead. AP walked intentionally. Too bad Holliday couldn't drive the final nail home, especially in light of how the ninth inning went.

I think we should be concerned about Franklin. I know he said all the right things about the extended layoff and he wasn't sharp, and he did buckle down after McCann's double gave Atlanta the lead again. Franklin not being right reshuffles the entire bullpen, and makes our shaky right-handed set-up problem that much worse. Let's hope his renewed concentration after the double is a sign of how he will pitch the rest of the season.

I have no idea what happened to Carpenter yesterday, but oof - that hurt. And Vasquez was as tough as expected on the Cardinals. Let's just move on.

I'll have a preview up later today on the Florida series (although it's already posted over at CardsClubhouse). Their pitching isn't quite the caliber of Atlanta's over the weekend, but they are starting Nolasco, a lefty rookie (first-time lefties typically make life difficult for St Louis), and Josh Johnson, so it won't get that much easier.

On to other news:

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 11 (Cubs won 2 of 3 from Cincinnati)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 6 (took 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh)
- Milwaukee: 6 (swept Arizona)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED (lost 2 of 3 to Chicago)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

UCB Fantasy Baseball Playoffs:

You may remember me, a long time ago, mentioning that several Cardinal bloggers had bandied together to form a Head-to-head fantasy baseball league. I haven't talked much about it, because my draft was soo bad I ended up with no power at all to speak of from the 5 outfielders I was playing, and I spent most of the first half of the year fighting to get out of 1oth place in a 12-team league. But, since week 9, something changed with the team; I don't know if it was Derrek Lee remembering he doesn't suck, or the acquisitions of Michael Cuddyer and the Melky Cabrera, or the fact that my pitching staff (Oswalt, Carpenter, Lackey, Greinke, Blanton) have pitched their butts off. But I haven't lost a week since Week 8 (with 2 ties). It doesn't hurt having 2 Cy Young candidates in the rotation.

Also, I got smoked by the two best teams in the league the first time through, and returned the favor the second time; I was the first team in the league to hang a loss on the best team in the division (capably managed by Pip over at Fungoes), which led to a flurry of activity by him on the waiver wire (at least, that's the story I'm sticking with).

Anyway, I didn't want to jinx it. But I managed to climb out of the second division and finish third overall in the league, behind the aforementioned Fungoes and Matt Leach, who blogs for mlb.com. Not too shabby.

I faced off against Dan over at C70 at the bat, and despite a horrendous week from my pitching, I managed to survive, winning 5-3-2. Next up? Leach's team. I got him the last time when my team was hot, so we'll see how things go this time around. No matter what, however, I won't finish worse than 4th in the playoffs, and that's cool. We came a long way, baby.

Live Blog and Double Header Wrap Up

As predicted, I didn't make it into the Live Blog for the early game yesterday. Although I did watch part of it,just not a very good part of it.

First inning - Cardinals retired in order, Hoffpauir hits 3-R HR. Turned TV off.
Fourth inning - Cardinals have tied it; watched Zambrano hit HR. Turned TV off.

Managed to log in for the second game, at least for a while. Broke away to have dinner with the family, and never got back on line. Kids can be so demanding sometimes. I ended up watching the game in fast forward at about 10:30pm, but by that time the chat was long over.

Some thoughts:

- Figures Ludwick is heating up just in time for a 3-day break. But at least he's heating up. The return of his bat couldn't come at a better time, what with DeRosa on the DL and Ankiel admitting his shoulder is still bothering him.

- Ankiel should sit until he's completely healthy. If there's one thing this team/organization has an overabundance of, its outfielders.

- The play in the top of the fifth with Wainwright was interesting. The rule governing that play is Rule 7.09(f), which reads:

If, in the judgment of the umpire, a base runner willfully and deliberately interferes with a batted ball or a fielder in the act of fielding a batted ball with the obvious intent to break up a double play, the ball is dead. The umpire shall call the runner out for interference and also call out the batter-runner because of the action of his teammate. In no event may bases be run or runs scored because of such action by a runner.

On the replay it looked like Adam stuck his hand in the way of the throw. The fact he slid towards Theriot, and not towards the bag, seemed to bolster this. However, (a) Wainwright is 6'7", and Theriot 5'10", so even as he gets down he's still in the way, (b) Wainwright missed his calling as a volleyball middle-blocker if he's able to predict with that much accuracy where the ball will be before it leaves someone's hand, so it was probably a fluke, and (c) why on earth would a pitcher attempt to block a thrown ball (probably moving at what, 70+ MPH?) with his PITCHING HAND.

The umpire called it incidential contact and that (to my mind) was correct. Of course, if Zambrano had been hit on the pitching hand instead of Wainwright, it clearly would have been interference.

- Piniella's pitching/outfielder adventure was amusing, but didn't change the outcome. It would have much more fun if our Hoffpauir had lifted a fly ball to left. Although the result would have sucked, wouldn't it have been cool to see a pitcher catch a fly ball then throw out a runner at home plate? How many times has that ever happened?

At any rate, a split of the series will work. The Cardinals didn't bury the Cubs, like they could have with a 4-game sweep; we all knew that was a long shot, however, given how Thompson had struggled in his previous 3 starts (and validated by his effort on Saturday). And Lohse was not sharp in his first start off the DL, which I probably should have expected; drawing Zambrano didn't help either.

We'll look at it this way - a 10 game road trip, through (a) a pre-season favorite to win the Division, (b) a team that thinks it has a shot to contend, and (c) last year's defending Division champ, which ends 6-4, is a success. They left tied for first; they come to the break witha 2.5 game lead in the division, and having picked up ground on every team in the division except Houston (who were 3.5 back on 2 July and still are).

They play .540 ball the rest of the way they win 88 games. And that might just be enough this year in the Central.

HR Derby tonight, ASG tomorrow, off-day Wednesday.

Post plans for this week include first-half grades for the team, a Musial v Pujols article, and the next Series Preview. So stay tuned for that.

UCB topic - Live Blog

Can't say yesterday's result was a surprise, because it wasn't. Althought hitting Bradley with an 0-2 pitch was a 'road less traveled' way to get into a big inning (as 3 runs ultimately scored in the home first).

Cardinals can still come out of here with a split, or even better if they sweep the double-dip today.

Slight pitching match-up change from the preview. Carlos Zambrano will throw the first game against Lohse, vice the night game. A curious decision, as Zambrano is a better pitcher at night over his career by any metric. Whatever. Wells has pitched slightly better at night, although with only 15 ML games under his belt it's hard to draw any conclusions from the data.

Today is the United Cardinal Blogger live blog. As promised, you can get there from here:



Enjoy the game! I hope to check in from time to time, although realistically I may only be available for the night game).

Four Cardinal Events That Made A Difference

This post is brought to you by the United Cardinal Bloggers, as part of the June Project.

I had intended to make this a top 10 list, but instead, I'll make it a little more personal and much shorter. Here are four Cardinal games (or series of games) that made a difference for me.

Dodgers 11, Cardinals 0, August 28, 1977. I've mentioned this one before. My Dad took me to this game, my first. We had tickets in the left field bleachers at Dodger Stadium, and got there early enough to watch batting practice; I brought my glove, as all 7 year olds must, to their first game. I thought the Cardinals looked funny in those blue road uniforms. During BP one of the Cardinals hit a ball into the bleachers, very close to where I was sitting; a guy with no shirt, who was listening to a transistor radio and appeared to be asleep, stuck his hand out and caught it after it bounced in the stairwell. After he caught it, I thought I should have made some effort to get there and catch it, but whatever, more opportunities would come to catch a ball (I eventually did get some BP baseballs, but it would be 18 years later).

I remember very little of the game. I remember being surprised when it was over and Dad told me the Cardinals hadn't scored. As time passed, I remembered being at the game, but forgot the actual date (other than it being in 1977). One day, while my parents were packing to move back to St Louis, Dad handed me a packet - and in it was my ticket stub, his ticket stub, and the parking pass from that game. He had kept it in his desk at the house all these years.

I don't have any pictures of the game, but I have my memories and those ticket stubs. And that's enough.

Padres 1, Cardinals 0, May 16, 1995. MLB players went on strike on 12 August 94; I deployed to WESTPAC on 15 August. So for most of the baseball strike I was so otherwise occupied I didn't pay attention to it (this lack of memory also, for me, applies to the Branch Dividian siege and the Bush/Gore recount). When we got back, the players were still on strike, and replacement players were reporting to spring training. I thought both the union, and the owners, were a bunch of greedy, selfish people and was no longer interested in following baseball at all.

I was talked into going to this game, and somewhat reluctantly went. But what a game. Three cool things happened. One, there were only 6,743 people at Jack Murphy Stadium that night, so you could yell (something random or due to a bonehead play) and they would clearly hear you. Two, it turned into a hell of a game and a hell of a pitchers duel, with the Padres winning in the bottom of the ninth. Three, Ozzie Smith autographed a baseball for me. It was the first time any player had signed anything for me as a keepsake. Later that year I got Red Schoendienst to sign the same ball, and gave it to my Dad for his birthday - a Cardinal Hall of Fame double play combination.

I got my love of baseball back that night.

May 7-13, and September 3-5, 2001. 2001 sucked. And that was before Islamic Fundamentalist Radicals flew two planes into the World Trade Center. Reeling from several personal body blows we won't go into here, my sister talked me into flying to St Louis for a visit, which happened to coincide with a Cardinal homestand, and for which she and her then-boyfriend (now husband) had bought tickets.

To virtually the entire homestand. I think we missed the day game on 10 May, but we went to the rest of them.

I needed a distraction, and what better way to distract than by burying oneself in sports?

Anywho, the Cardinals one the first game. And the second. And the third. And kept winning. They won every game on that homestand. They entered the Cubs series two and a half back of the first place Cubs, and left it with a 1/2 game lead. I remember the fans cheering as a Cardinal employee changed the standings, on the large hand-operated scoreboard at old Busch, after the Sunday game ended. That was cool - took the Cubs down and put the Cardinals up.

So what could get better than a 6-0 homestand? How about a series sweep in San Diego? Went to all three of those games as well. Remember Bud Smith? Threw a no-hitter? Saw it. Saw a no-hitter live.

Six days after that series ended, we were making preps to load weapons and head out to war.

I remember 2001 just like everyone else does, but it's also the year I never saw the Cardinals lose in person. Oh, I wore the same hat to every game. I didn't wear it again until Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS, and I haven't worn it since. You don't use a talisman lightly.

Boston 3, Cardinals 0, October 27, 2004. A bad day for Cardinals fans everywhere. A sudden, abrupt end to a magical season. Swept out of their first World Series appearance in 17 years, and the first time they had been swept in the Fall Classic since 1928. So why in the world is it on the list?

I told my Mom, if the Cardinals made the World Series I was going to a game. I bought tickets to St Louis and made arrangements to take time off from work when they made the playoffs. When they won the NL, I flew home, bought some wildly overpriced tickets to sit in the top deck, waaaay out in left field of Busch, and was raring to go.

I also had a surprise. I invited my Dad to go with me.

The Cards fell behind in the first, as they seemingly had the entire series, and fought gamely throughout, but the Sox had all the momentum. When Izzy worked out of a bases loaded, no out jam in the top of the eighth, the stadium loudly came to life; but it was the last hurrah.

Red Sox fans in our section (a) couldn't believe we were tearing the building down, and (b) stood silently when the game ended. I asked one guy why he wasn't celebrating, and he just shook his head. He had tears in his eyes.

We didn't know it at the time, but it was the last game my Dad and I ever went to together. Which is, despite the outcome, why it is special.

I don't have any pictures of the game, but I have my memories and my ticket stub. And that's enough.

Quick Programming Note Regarding Inteviews

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been offered a unique opportunity, and that is to interview a couple of Cardinal Hall of Famers. These opportunities have been made possible by Bank of America, who is promoting their MLB Checking program.

I had not heard of this program before getting the emails on the subject. So BofA's 'get the word out' campaign is already successful.

Anywho, Dan from Cardinal70 will be interviewing Ozzie Smith tomorrow at 1130 PDT. He'll be using the blogtalkradio (hereafter abbreviated as BTR) vehicle for the interview, which means if you can't listen live, you can download it and listen at your leisure.

Some pertinent links:

Dan's understandably giddy post announcing the interview
Bank of America explains the MLB banking program
BTR link for the interview and downloading instructions (files are typically available for download about an hour after the show concludes).

(I thought this was more exciting than discussing getting no-hit for 7 innings by Cliff Lee)

So...who is the Cardinals biggest rival?

Welcome to United Cardinal Blogger Debate Day!

Today our various member blogs take an issue of interest to the average Cardinal fan and provide a definitive answer. The roll call of issues and debaters can be found here.

For your reading enjoyment, the opposing viewpoint to this argument can be found at Redbirds Fun. Before digesting it, please ponder the position of Jim Trotter III, esq. Mr. District Attorney:

"Cubs are our rival. It's a concept that comes from Old England, and all our little ol' ancestors."

Thanks Doc.

Feel free to peruse Dan's position, and then hurry back.

(waiting...)

(waiting.....)

(waiting.......)

(Ok, they're back now)

I'm sure he had a cogent argument as to why the Chicago Cubs are the Cardinals biggest rival. However, it's completely wrong.

"You want answers?" "I WANT THE TRUTH!"

In order to be a rival, the following things need be true:

1. You must play often enough to sow the seeds of dislike.
2. There must be on field events that resonate with the fans.
3. You must play with something on the line besides bragging rights.

The Houston Astros have played the foil in these three areas far, far more often than the Cubs have. It may have been, deep in the forest primeval, that the Cubs were our on-field rival, but no more.

On, Contraire, you say? Consider the following:

1. You must play often enough to sow the seeds of dislike. Houston joined the NL in 1962, and played the Cardinals often enough until 1969, when expansion forced the splitting of the leagues into divisions. Houston (who had been the site of a Cardinal AA farm team, by the way) went to the NL West, the Cardinals to the NL East. As a result, the teams played 12 times a year, often enough to breed some dislike, but not often enough to forge a rivalry. And, because they played for/in separate divisions, there was never really anything on the line.

That changed in 1994 with the 3 division concept and unbalanced scheduling. Now, like the Cubs, they play the Cardinals anywhere from 16-18 times a year. That's plenty of times to sow some seeds of dislike.

2. There must be on field events that resonate with fans. This moves past the 'Rich Harden threw at Pujols on Sunday', 'Dusty Baker is an ass for arguing with LaRussa during a game', 'Wandy Rodriguez shot off his mouth at Pujols during BP'. No. There has to be something that happened that left a deep impression on both fan bases.

What do you come up with for the Cubs? The Cardinals comeback on 20 July 2004? Three Nights in August? You're grasping at straws.

Try these four events on for the establishment of a rivalry:
September 2, 1996: Houston is in first place, starting a critical series against the second place Cardinals. Houston jumps out to 3-0 and 7-3 leads in this one, on a day when Donovan Osborne doesn't have it. The Cardinal bullpen throws 6 2/3 scoreless, while the offense ties the game at 7 in the bottom of the eighth and wins 8-7 in the tenth when Willie McGee singles in Ozzie Smith with the winning run. Houston gets swept and never recovers as the Cardinals win the NL Central.

October 5, 2001: Cardinals lead the NL Central by 1 with 3 to play, starting a series, at home, against Houston. Cardinals lead 1-0 after 7 behind Woody Williams. Houston scratches out a run in the eighth (remember Jeff Tabaka?) and in the ninth, and win 2-1. Each team wins one of the remaining two games, so they end the season tied; but Houston is awarded the division based on head-to-head record.

If that weren't bad enough, the following year the Houston Press Guide is titled, "2001 NL Central Champions". The Cardinals title theirs, "2001 NL Central Co-Champions", fanning the ill-will between the clubs.

Game 7, 2004 NLCS: Do I need describe Jim Edmonds' catch?

Game 5, 2005 NLCS: Pujols vs Lidge. Enough Said.

Game 6, 2005 NLCS: Roy Oswalt would have blown away the 27 Yankees that night to win the National League.

So you see, we have a lot more recent history with the Astros than with the Cubs, especially of the 'I'll never forget that game' variety.

3. You must play with something on the line besides bragging rights. Here's where it gets ridiculous.

I took a look at the entire history of the Cub/Cardinal, and Astro/Cardinal, rivalries based on records and when they played in the same league or division. Basically I was looking for how many times one team finished ahead of the other, and how many times the teams were involved in a pennant race. For Cubs/Cardinals, developing the data set was easy. They've played in the same league, and same division, since 1892. For Astros/Cardinals, it was a little bit more difficult. They played in the same league since 1962, but only from 1962 to 1968 was it one league. They played in separate divisions from 1969-1993, before they were both assigned to the NL Central starting in 1994.

Here's a breakdown, by decade, of how many times the Cardinals finished ahead of the Cubs (read: Cards finished higher - Cubs finished higher - ties. Yes, they did sometimes finish with the same record).

1892-1900: 2-7-0
1901-1910: 1-9-0
1911-1920: 2-7-1
1921-1930: 7-3-0
1931-1940: 4-5-1
1941-1950: 9-1-0
1951-1960: 7-2-1
1961-1970: 8-2-0
1971-1980: 7-3-0
1981-1990: 6-4-0
1991-2000: 8-2-0
2001-2008: 4-3-0

Here it is for the Astros.

1962-1968: 7-0-0
1994-2000: 2-5-0
2001-2008: 5-2-1

For Cubs/Cardinals, since 1940, it's LOPSIDED in favor of the Cardinals. For Astros/Cardinals, it's even since 1994.

Drilling down even further, I did a look at pennant races over the lifetime of the rivalry. A pennant race was defined as (a) one team must have finished either first or second in their division or league, and (b) they must have finished within 5 games of each other.

Based on these definitions, in the HISTORY of their rivalry the Cubs and Cardinals have been in a pennant race together a total of 6 times. Four of those events occurred between 1928 and 1945. In fact, the Cubs and Cardinals have only finished one-two three times; in 1930, 1935, and 1945. It's safe to say the glory days of this rivalry on the field are well in the rear view mirror.

The Cardinals and Astros have been in a pennant race three times since 2000, most recently 2006.

Yep; Cubs/Cardinals are such huge rivals they've fought each other for a pennant 6 times in 116 years; the Astros/Cardinals have done it three times in 15.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum.

It's time we all admitted the only reason Cubs/Cardinals can even be considered a rivalry is because one can drive to Chicago in 5 hours, and for historical reasons St Louis always compares itself, favorably or unfavorably, to Chicago.

The actual rivalry, based on on-the-field play, is Cardinals/Astros.

Fearless Predictions - Playoffs

The final step for the UCB week is to predict the playoffs in 2009. In order to complete that, I need to offer up my predictions on the remaining 4 divisions I missed. In order to keep this short, and because I'll be up at 0300 tomorrow morning to drive to the airport, here's the synopsis:

AL East
1. Yankees. Bought the best staff in the majors. When A-Roid returns, they'll be scary good.
2. Tampa Bay. Last year wasn't a fluke.
3. Boston. Not enough pitching.
4. Toronto. Not enough pitching, Vernon Wells needs protection.
5. Baltimore. It's tough playing in the most competitive division in baseball.

AL Central
1. Cleveland. Welcome back from the dead, Anthony Reyes and Travis Hafner.
2. Chicago. Bad choice in CF fellas.
3. Minnesota. Liriano's return a lift; Mauer's injury a stomach punch.
4. Detroit. Verlander's a mess. They'll rake, but like Milwaukee, can't get anyone out.
5. Kansas City. Three #5 starters in the rotation does not a contender make.

AL West
1. Anaheim. Because everyone else is a lot worse.
2. Seattle. I reserve the right to change this if Griffey plays more than 100 innings in LF.
3. Texas. Building on last year, need pitching.
4. Oakland. Need pitching. Holliday will not hit like he did in Colorado.


NL East
1. Phillies. Because I hate the Mets.
2. Mets. Because they're good.
3. Florida. Pitching and Hanley Ramirez.
4. Atlanta. Derek Lowe had a great spring, but not much else.
5. Washington. Because they suck.

Playoffs:

NL: Philadelphia, Cubs, Arizona, St Louis
AL: Yankees, Cleveland, Anaheim, Tampa Bay.

Divisional Round:
NL - Phillies over St Louis, Arizona over Cubs.
AL - Tampa Bay over Cleveland, Yankees over Anaheim

LCS:
NL - Phillies over Arizona
AL - Yankees over Tampa

World Series - Yankees over Phillies

Fearless Predictions - NL West

I love the NL West. It's like playing craps in Vegas. You know what a good roll is, you know what a bad roll is, but you never know what you're going to get.

And, since my domicile is in lovely San Diego, I get to watch an inordinate amount of NL West baseball. Which, these days, is an inordinate amount of bad baseball. Does this make me an expert on the division? In amongst the UCB world, well, yeah probably. In the entire world? Not even close.

So, with that in mind, here's how I think the division will shake out.

1. Arizona. Better overall pitching staff and better overall lineup. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, etc etc etc. Remember their 20-5 start last year, following by spending the rest of the season in the toilet? They've learned from that. Even with that craptacular non-April record, they were good enough to win last year until Manny went off in Aug/Sept. Manny won't hit like that for an entire season, which will give the D'Backs enough margin to eke out a division win.

And enjoy a first round exit at the hands of the Cubs.

2. Los Angeles. Let's face it, Manny's in the middle of the lineup. The most feared right handed hitter in baseball not named Albert. First ballot HOF. One of the top 10 sluggers of all time. Lost Derek Lowe, missed out on the Sabathia sweepstakes, but may get Jason Schmidt back, and again, have Manny. In this division, that should be enough.

3-4. Whatever. Seriously, there isn't much difference at this point between Colorado and San Francisco. San Fran should finish third if for no other reason than they have Tim Lineceum in their rotation, who is better than every pitcher in this division not named Peavy or Young. No one on Colorado can match that guy. Lineups are a wash. I'm not excited about either of these teams.

5. Ted Leitner's Padres. Because they certainly aren't 'My Padres' (one of his catch phrases). Big off-season free agent acquisition? David Eckstein. Wow. Adrian Gonzalez is really, REALLY good, and no one knows this. Peavy and Young are also really good. But overall this team can't hit, and can't hit in Petco. Brian Giles is the next best hitter on the team; he had 12 HR last season. Heath Bell is overrated at closer. They lost 99 games last season, I don't see them losing that many, but it will be high 80s.

Fearless Predictions - NL Central

With apologies to Gene Hackman...

I'm sure Villanova winning the National Championship is beyond [our] wildest dreams, so let's just keep it right there, OK?

The United Cardinal Bloggers are predicting the standings throughout MLB this week. The family spent last week in Monterey, CA, where I expected my hotel to have internet access. It did - if your computer was wireless capable. Alas, this one isn't (don't ask why - let's just say the government won't spring for it and leave it at that). It's awfully hard to blog on an iTouch, so I didn't.

It also meant I couldn't keep up with work email. When I downloaded my email Monday, I had over 1000 messages vying for my attention. So much for predicting the AL and NL East. However, today, all that is in the past, so I will attempt to beat the odds and predict the order of finish in the NL Central.

1. Chicago Cubs. As much as it pains me to say, this team is still the class of the division. Zambrano (even with arm questions), Harden, Lilly, Dempster, make up a solid rotation. Sean Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis. Even with Wood gone, the bullpen is still formidable - Gregg closing, Marmol still setting up, Heilman, Samardzija, et al. Questions do abound in the lineup. Why did they trade DeRosa away? Can Bradley stay healthy for a whole season (I say no)? Can Fukudome hit at all (again, not at the ML level IMHO)? However, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto are legit, Theriot will set the table, and that should be enough.

2. St Louis. Carpenter is back, and that bodes well for the team. Rotation looks solid, assuming Wainwright can regain his pre-finger injury form, Lohse didn't have a "once in 5 year" season in 2008, Wellemeyer continues to progress, and Piniero pitches like a man in a contract year (in other words, for food beyond 2009). Loss of Glaus, with no timetable for return (as reported today in the Post-Dispatch), hurts a lot. Hope Freese is as good as we think he is. Hope Rasmus starts the season in LF. Hope Ludwick can protect Pujols. Hope Khalil isn't just a March Mirage.

The bullpen should be adequate to great (depending on how Motte develops as a closer with Perez in AAA). This team should be good enough to win the Wild Card. I've predicted 90 wins, and will stand by that. A few lucky breaks, and we win the division, but that's a long shot.

Now it gets interesting. I don't see much difference between them, so just for fun:

3. Pittsburgh. They're due. Maholm, Duke, Snell, make a good young nucleus of a rotation. Lineup is anchored by Doumit and McLouth. The LaRoche boys and Freddie Sanchez will it out nicely. Bullpen will blow its share of saves, but this team will be competitive. And it's about time for one of the anchor franchises of the league to return to some semblance of competency.

4. Milwaukee. Let's see....Sabathia's a Yankee, Sheets is hurt again, Cardinal cast-offs Suppan and Looper make up 2/5 of the rotation, Hoffman's on the DL. This team can hit a ton, but if you can't get anyone out, who cares? .500 at best. Not a factor in the race. They will still torture the Cardinals, though.

5. Cincinnati. Another train wreck. Griffey's back having lattes (good for the Reds), Dunn is in DC (defensively good, but that's a huge hole in the middle of the order), Phillips is good, Votto and Bruce are legit, but the rest of the lineup won't make you recall the '27 Yankees. Pitching? Well, let's just say when you play in a broom closet, even having 5 Walter Johnson's isn't a guarantee of success. Their starting 5 (Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Owings) ain't exactly Walter Johnson incarnate. Until they modify that ballpark to give their pitching staff a fighting chance, or go exclusively with sinkerball pitchers who will cause opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground, this franchise won't smell the playoffs again.

6. Houston. This pains me since Roy Oswalt is on my UCB fantasy league team. But disarray in spring training doesn't bode well for array in the regular season. You can't change a leopard's spots.

United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour

Each week the UCB runs an hour of Cardinal Talk. This has been going since, oh, about November I guess, but I've not been able to dial in and participate in any of the shows due to (a) Master's Degree homework workload, and (b) uncooperative children who don't want to go to bed. In fact, the little one has become quite good at climbing out of his crib. I swear he's going to be a BASE jumper when he grows up - the kid is fearless.

Our weekly time block is Wednesday's at 8pm Pacific. The link to the site is here.

Anywho, the stars aligned last night and I was free to dial in. Unfortunately I caught the host, Chet from 4 the birdz, slightly off-guard; I had RSVP'd as a maybe, but since I was the only 'maybe' to dial in, he can be forgiven for not expecting it. However I thought he handled it well. Josh from the blog Redbirds Row also dialed in; Redbirds Row is a new Cardinal Blog I haven't had a chance to visit yet.

Last night's keynote speaker was Cardinal farmhand Jonny Bravo. Jonny recently graduated from Azusa Pacific University and is a left-handed starting prospect, currently slated to start in Johnson City. Before he dialed in, we discussed how the spring training is going for the Cardinals, who we thought were the most surprising pitchers, Chris Duncan, left-handed relief, and so on.

Once Jonny Bravo dialed in the conversation really bounced around, and he was a champ for putting up with our meandering questions for over 30 minutes.

The Talk Radio site records all the sessions and allows downloading the files. Rather than have me try and transcribe the whole conversation, I had intended to post the audio file here, but here we run into conflict with their business model - using the site to host shows is free, but if you want the audio it will cost you a couple of bucks. So, I haven't downloaded it yet (I'll probably do that via iTunes Friday night, just for posterity; I like listening to the melodious sound of my voice - call me narcissistic, I don't care).

However, if you're interested in listening to last night's conversation (it's an hour long), follow the link above, look for the 3/4/09 edition - you'll have to click on the description button below each file to find it, but I believe it's the second one in the middle column - and you can listen to it through your computer by hitting 'Download'.

Considering I wasn't prepared, and didn't know what to expect, I thought I did pretty well; however feel free to ridicule me in the comments. I thank the participants and dial out at about the 40 minute point.

I said it on the air last night, and will repeat it here: Many thanks to Jonny Bravo for calling and putting up with our questions. Best of luck to him in his professional career.

United Cardinal Blogger Roundtable

Since 20 Feb, the illustrious bloggers known as the United Cardinal Bloggers have been posing questions, and soliciting answers, from each other. Yesterday it was my turn to pose the question.

There has been an undercurrent of acrimony laced throughout this recent off-season from some corners of the Cardinal fan base. Buster Olney alluded to it in an article on ESPN.com some time ago; Cardinals GM Mozeliak experienced it to a degree in his last chat with fans. The pet theory is this: the Cardinals are cheap, ownership won't cut loose with the moolah to sign players capable of filling holes in the lineup/roster, this team is doomed to not contend for the near term.

So I asked the following question to the UCB group:

"There's been a lot of talk this off-season about the Cardinals' payroll. On the one hand, we have the non-arbitration offer for Looper, the failed Fuentes signing, the lack of interest in pursuing Sheets (this is before his medical issues came to light), the non-signing of an impact bat to protect Pujols, the insistence in keeping payroll around $100M. On the other, we have Lohse's contract, Pujols' deal, Carpenter's heavily back-loaded contract, Piniero's (ugh) $7.5M for this season.

The ownership group has been accused of not spending the money necessary to field a competitive team. Do you agree or disagree, and why?"

Various folks weighed in with their opinion.

Dan (C70 at the bat):

"I've been on ownership's side most of the offseason and I don't see any reason to switch sides now.

The only thing I held against them was not pursuing Sheets, and it's very possible they had more medical info than the general public. Other than that, what would we have them do? They made a run on Fuentes that most of us were not excited about. Edgar Renteria might have been nice, but the Giants way overpaid for him. There just wasn't a whole lot out there this offseason, especially at the times when they were doing their shopping.

I look at what payroll is compared to this market size. I look at the fact that they locked up Carpenter before they had to (which may not have been the best idea, but no one could say it was the move of a cheapskate). I look at the Lohse contract.

I think that management is walking a fine line between fiscal responsibility and competitiveness and doing a pretty good job of it on the whole."

Chet (fourthebirdz):

"Because of a winter of low-budget "moves," a fan would've gotten just as much excitement out of watching a winter of low-budget "movies."

If the Cards are playing up their farm system, it's probably because they have no choice but to actually use it for its intended purpose, because the FA market was volatile.

All bets were hedged this past cold-stove season, and by more organizations than the Cards, save this one New York group of which you may have heard.

But prospects? Good ones? Yeah. Lots of players that actually fit the "prospect" description, rather than the word "prospect" used as a synonym for "minor leaguer." Due to the tentative attitude toward player acquisition, we're seeing more "prospects" will a real chance of making the parent club. I predict the media outside St. Louis will be doing a lot of talking about three or four Cards' "freshmen" before May."

Sarah (La Beisbolista):

"Admittedly, I have been a little wishy-washy on the subject. Sometimes it's hard to take a step back when you see other teams (like the Cubs, 'cause remember their huge spending spree after 2007?) buying up FAs and doing what could be construed as "improving the team" (whether or not that's actually the case) and your team seems to be content doing nothing.

Once it's all said and done though, I really think the smart thing for a team to do is move slowly. Throwing money around doesn't necessarily bring home the hardware, and I think it would alientate a lot of fans if the team operated with a revolving door of free agents instead of nurturing young talent and relying on the farm system.

Comeptetive is a relative term, as well, and it's hard to say that just because a player makes $100 million he's automatically the best option. Even the guys with the huge paychecks were making the league minimum at one point. They have to start somewhere. When I'm thinking rationally, I truly believe that it's possible to have a competetive team without breaking the bank. All things equal, you can't be a Cardinals fan and have any doubt that a young, unassuming group of players can win it all."

Matt (Whiteyball):

"You can’t say the ownership group is cheap when they’ve consistently been in the top third to top half of major league clubs in payroll over the past decade. That doesn’t mean that they are not progressively sliding down from the top third towards the middle of the pack.

They lock up key players such as Pujols, Carp, Molina, and Wainwright currently and Edmonds, Rolen and Izzy in the past. This doesn’t necessarily stand out like a big free agent signing, but it does mean the club will take care of business. I think the Cardinals are a little gun-shy when it comes to free agent signings. For every big dollar free agent who earns their money, there is a Zito, Schmidt, or even Carpenter who have made a lot of money that past few seasons, with their teams getting nothing in return.

All I ask is the ownership group be up front with the fans. How many years in a row has it been said that not spending in the off-season will translate into flexibility to bring in someone big at the trade deadline. When there is no big trade deadline acquisition, the club says it gives them the ability to be aggressive in the free agent market. The cycle continues year after year and is getting old. Why can’t they just say that they are happy with the young kids they are bringing up and want to give them a shot over going out and paying much more for a veteran, who might not be better. All I think any knowledgeable Cards fan asks for is a little honesty.

There is a key concern in camp right now that will really show the ownerships hand. The left handed side of the bullpen has looked pretty bad and Ohman and Beimel are free agents still waiting for a team. If these 2 sign elsewhere for under the $2-3 million price tag and the Cardinals bullpen still looks as shaky from the left side as it does today, then I think the ownership group is heading more and more towards the cheap end of the spectrum."

The consensus seemed to be ownership is willing to spend the money to field a competitive team. There was some negativity aired, namely on the ownership's continual spin to how their dollars are spent and why, but overall the folks who responded were satisfied in the DeWitt group's analysis of the market and restraint where called for.

As for me, I believe ownership is doing what it can to field a competitive team. If they weren't, we'd see payroll contract much like it did for the 1998/2004 Marlins, or this year's Padres, and guys like Pujols, Wainwright, Molina, Carpenter, Piniero would be traded away for prospects. Although we can still hope they move Piniero.

I think this undercurrent of dissatisfaction is the work of a very few vocal fans who probably wouldn't be happy with anything this ownership group does. That they have been successful in venting their frustration is apparent as some National Media have picked up on their outrage and given it some veneer of credibility. Cardinals fans I talk to, be it on line or face to face (and yes, there are other Cardinals fans in SoCal besides me - you just need to know where to look), aren't in that vocal minority.

You want to hear someone vent some frustration? Talk to a Cubs fan re: DeRosa leaving and Bradley coming in. Cry me a river, fellas.

To sum up: Ownership is doing a competent job in fielding a competitive team, a team with a chance to contend.

My thanks to those who contributed to the discussion.

Top Five Cardinals Stories of 2008

And so we come to the final page of the Year 2008, which, by the Gregorian Calendar, marked the 2008th year since the birth of Jesus of Nazareth. And you thought this was just a baseball blog.

As we prepare to ring in the New Year, let us look back at the year that was from a Cardinal perspective.

Well, that's a lot of ground to cover. How about we limit ourselves to the Top 5 Cardinal stories? Yes, I think that would be better. Less writing for me. Less reading for you. And, the United Cardinal Bloggers recommended capping the list at 5 as well.

So, here are my most important stories from the past year, ranked from 5 to 1:

#5 - Mark Mulder's arm falls off, released by Cardinals.
This is a big story in my mind, although a tragic one (mildly funny byline notwithstanding). Obviously Mark's arm didn't actually fall off. However, after fighting for 3 years to restore the strength in his pitching shoulder so he could return to the throwing arm position that marked his successful years in Oakland, his return to the Majors was a 16 pitch effort against Philadelphia where he didn't get out of the first inning. Mark's tenacity was commendable and is admirable, however, the Cardinals got nothing for the 2 year deal they signed him to following the 2006 season.

We thought he would again become a mainstay of the rotation for 2007-2009. He didn't. Recognizing the mistake, and moving on, was a big story. Cutting him loose for $1.5 million allowed them to use the option year money on his contract more wisely, in this case, to fund Kyle Lohse's $41M contract.

Which, in light of the ridiculous money the Yankees threw at Sabathia and Burnett, now looks like a bargain signing. I'm not above saying I may have been wrong in my panning that signing earlier this off-season.

#4 - Khalil Greene traded to the Cardinals, to play short stop for 2/3 of the year.
Cardinals have had a dearth of power hitting from the middle infield positions since Renteria left the club after 2004. Although they will continue to employ a banjo hitter at second base, whoever that turns out to be, Greene represents a significant upgrade at the plate from Izturis, Miles, and the band of merry men used in 2008.

Now if he can only figure out how to not break a finger during the season....

#3 - George Kissell Dies.
This Baseball Reference article is succinct and says it all. Employed by one Major League Baseball club longer than anyone in recorded history. Widely credited with protecting, and passing on, the 'Cardinal Way' of playing baseball.

When someone who teaches the young players how to play the game right passes away, that's big news to me. He will be missed by the organization.

#2 - Albert Pujols wins Second NL MVP award.
BBWAA members belied their not paying attention, 'what have you done for me lately' reputation, looked past their infatuation with Ryan Howard's lone good offensive month and voted the award to the best player in the NL. I was fully prepared for Albert to not win the award, and was pleasantly surprised when he did.

#1 - Cardinals finish 86-76, stay in playoff hunt until last 2 weeks of the season.
Let's face it, we all predicted this would be a sub-500 season. In fact, I'm pretty sure I prognosticated the team winning only 74 games this season. But look at all the positive story lines from this year:

- Ryan Ludwick's career year
- Isringhausen stepping aside for Perez at the back of games
- Ankiel's great first half (including two of the most ridiculous outfield throws to cut down runners you'll ever see)
- Kyle Lohse pitching like an All-Star
- McClellan a right handed anchor in the seventh/eighth innings (until he was exhausted)
- Molina's bat
- VASTLY improved team defense
- Troy Glaus being better than expected all around (robbed of a Gold Glove, by the way)

This team fought, scratched, had one of the best offensives in the NL, and far, FAR exceeded expectations. That's the biggest story of 2008 - a spring of resignation turned into a summer of hope, and a fall of satisfaction, that the team played competitive baseball all season.

United Cardinal Blogger Project - Roundtable Questions

Greetings to the UCB and those following the discussions on member blogs!

I had the opportunity to pose a question to our august panel on Friday, and below is the transcript of the discussion that followed.

Question: Player agents negotiate terms for their clients and are largely responsible for setting the free agent market price for players. There has been some murmuring on the internet about these men wielding too much power (see ESPN's Bill Simmons' recent article on Manny Ramirez). Do you think agents have too much sway over where players play year to year? If yes, what course of action would you suggest for MLB to rein these men in?

Trey (Cardinal Virtue): I think this is a really thought provoking question. My feeling is that yes, the agents in MLB do have too much power. One example of this is "agent nepotism" were less prominent players that are with an agent follow a big-name signing to the same team. One high profile example of this is how Pettite always followed Clemens to the same team (though they are also good friends besides being with the same agent). I'm not sure MLB can do much about this situation unfortunately, because the players union holds so much sway when it comes to free agency. Certainly, the agent system has been very good for most of the union's players, so they likely want to see it stay in it's current form. The best way for agent's to hold less sway is for induvidual teams to be more responsilbe with their investments. I believe we are starting to see some signs of this with more and more teams investing in young talent and staying away from spending big bucks on free agency or players like Manny who try and throw their weight around. Of course, we might quickly see a reversal of this trend with the best free agent crop in several years coming up this offseason.

Deaner (Cardinal Nation Globe): Yes. I definitely think these agents (a.k.a. Scott Boras) have way too much sway. It's seems like when their players come up for free agency only a select group of larger market clubs even have a chance at aquiring them. The most unforunate thing, however, is how these agents affect the draft. Many small-market teams will often step away from a Boras client, even if he is the best available player, out of fear that they won't be able to sign him. Pittsburgh did pick a Boras guy, Pedro Alvarez, with their number one pick in this past draft and they had a TON of problems with the signing.

Don (The Redbird Blog): Do agents have influence? Sure. Too much influence? Maybe in the case of younger, unsophisticated players who aren't comfortable with contracts and finances. Ultimately, however, it's the player who makes all the choices. If he doesn't like the direction his
agent is suggesting, he can simply say no. Or change agents. Happens all of the time.

Ryan (Cardinal Diaspora): There's plenty of culpability to go around, but in the end, it's the owners who have to sign the checks. Maybe something should be done to protect owners from themselves, like a hat, er, maybe a cap...a cap on...salaries.

Me: I agree that owners are to blame for the contract silliness. Lohse couldn't get $41M for four years following the best season of his career if (a) an owner wasn't willing to pay that, and (b) an owner wasn't afraid some other knucklehead would offer him more cash, and his services would be lost.

And even though some of the economic disparity has gone away in MLB (witness Meche's $40M plus from the KC Royals two years ago), the fact is exorbitant contract demands for Class "A" free agents limit their availability to only the teams with the most cash. Since agents control how much cash these players will ask for (again, mostly because some bozo's gonna pay it, but also because they get a cut of the revenue), they tacitly decide who goes where and plays for whom. How is it good for the overall health of the game to have the same teams in the playoffs year after year after year, and the rest of the league goes into the season with no realistic chance of advancing past Fan Appreciation Weekend?

Dan (Redbirds Fun): Another thing not helping the situation is an agent like Scott Boras who wants the highest possible contract for his clients.

Me: THAT GUY's (ed note: clearly I hadn't seen Deaner's email at this point) business practices are the primary driver for my question. Scott Boras had a direct influence on how this year's playoffs has gone, if you buy into the argument he was the driving force behind Manny Ramirez's petulance in Boston the first half of this season (and I think the argument there has some merit).

Owners get hammered for perceptions of collusion against players, fair market value, etc. Why not extend that line of thinking to agents?

Ryan: Except that if you're a player, you want an agent to serve you 100% and getting maximum value is typically right at the top of the list. That's why players choose Boras for their representation...and Boras chooses who he represents.

As yucky as they can be, I just can't blame the agents. They merely filling a need created by the process itself.

What about owners who opt for profit taking over competition? The National League has been notorious for that in recent years. (The only reason that's really changing is the paradigm shift of more and more owners seeing the value (economic and on the field) of player development/advanced evaluation). In part, teams willing to settle for 81 wins and in-the-black consistency have driven higher priced players to teams that shell out the dough. Teams competing with the Yankees and Red Sox have found longer-term value by making expensive moves and taking a temporary hit on their profit margins with the payoff being more competitive teams that build a fan base and longer term profit margins.

Don: I agree with Ryan. Ultimately the owners and the Players Association have created the system in which the agents work. At any time they can collectively bargain to restrict agent authority. The players are unlikely to agree to such restrictions unless the owners will make it worth their while (e.g., sweeter pension guarantees, reduced vesting periods, etc.)

Dan (C70 at the bat): I do think that the owners and GMs wind up giving the agents more power than they should have. In most years, I've blamed management for not standing up to Boras and his ilk and saying, "No, we're going elsewhere." The problem is, it takes all the owners doing that to make a difference and, eliminating collusion, that's just not going to happen because there's always an owner who thinks Player X is just that last piece they need.....

However, if the whole Boras/Manny situation is true, there really should be some limits or restrictions placed on the agents. I don't have as much trouble with them getting all they can get for their client, but when you pull a move like that just to fatten your commission, you've gone over the line.

Tom (CardinalsGM): I think it is TOO easy to say they have too much power. Let's not forget this is a business and this is a job for these guys They are doing what is right for their clients. Just because an owner has more money than another is not the fault of the agent. To get as much money as one can for working their job is the American Way. Therefore, no they are not too powerful. Just doing a job.

[UPDATE 10/27 0945: Do to a unintentional error, Nick wasn't included on the original email string. Here are his comments.]

Nick (Pitchers Hit Eighth): I think MLB has to do two things to try and curb increasing agent power in the game.

The players union needs to be brought down a notch or two, constantly filing grievances, claiming collusion, etc. This will help to even the playing field again between owners and players.

Second, the league needs to make thorough investigations into some practices by agents. Rather than it just being rumored and discussed as a *nudge, nudge, wink wink* thing - MLB needs to take an active interest in things like allegations of impropriety in the Manny Ramirez situation. If it's believed that Boras orchestrated Manny's moping and general bad attitude in Boston as a way to get Manny on the open market this off-season, something needs to be done. Suspension, revoke his free agency, ban Boras from MLB...something.

When the players and agents have all the control and can force the hand of a Boston team where they seemingly very literally have no choice but to trade one of the best hitters in the game, something is broken.

So what can we pull from the discussion? It seems most of the participants agree the process of signing free agents is broken. Most UCB-ers place the blame on the owners for being willing to pay exorbitant prices for a player's services. In their mind, the agent is simply being a good advocate for his client, driving the bidding up for their client's services to realize the maximum return for his talents.

In that vein, I agree with the majority - owners have created this situation. As was said above, there is very little chance the owners will be able to rein in agents (and by extension, the players) to bring the salary discussions down to a more manageable level without substantive and significant concessions to the players association. MLB players at the elite end of the spectrum have gotten rich under the current arrangement; why would they voluntarily restrict their access to untold fortune? A salary cap would restrict the number of big contracts a team could handle, but since that would restrict access to the pie, it's unlikely the players association would go for it.

One of the more interesting items that came up in the discussion was that regarding draftees. The Pittsburgh/Alvarez experience is not unique when it comes to agents driving a hard bargain for a first or second round draft pick. If memory serves, J.D. Drew held out for a full year because the Phillies wouldn't pay the $10 Million he and Scott Boras asked for, re-entering the draft and being taken by the Cardinals. Some teams may very well be scared off drafting a particular player based on who his agent is. There is also the problem of where the player falls in the draft order, and whether the team will only offer as a signing bonus what MLB recommends, or go beyond that if needed, but that's a topic for a later discussion.

I recommend reading the Bill Simmons article on Manny Ramirez, if you can stomach the Red Sox lament that's imbedded in his writing. The issue I have with what he described, and what led me to ask this question, is Manny's alleged tanking of the season while playing for the Red Sox. Ramirez tore the cover off the ball in the NL, but really didn't do that in Boston in 2008. Why the stark discrepancy? The cast of characters hadn't really changed that much in Boston, so I doubt it was locker room issues; besides, by all accounts, Manny's unconscious when it comes to locker room intrigue. There had to be some external driver. Perhaps Scott Boras is too convenient a target - he's universally reviled (unless, of course, he's working for you), so it's easy to turn venom against him.

My issue here is the integrity of the game. If Manny turned the hit machine off on the advice of his agent, in order to opt out of his contract in favor of a big free agent payday this off season, his actions directly affected the intregity of the game. You're supposed to play hard all the time. Not only would his 'tanking' have affected his statistics, but it directly affected the seasons of two teams - Boston (how much more dangerous is that team with Manny in the lineup, especially with Ortiz struggling as bad as he did and Lowell hurt in the ALCS), and the Dodgers (no way they make the playoffs without Manny). It also indirectly affected the seasons of at least 3 other teams - Tampa (do they win the East, much less the ALCS, if Manny's in Boston playing like he's capable?), the Chicago Cubs (they face Arizona in the playoffs instead of the Dodgers, the whole NL playoff result is different), and Philadelphia (who knows how well they do if they have to open the NLCS in Chicago vice having home field against LA).

If nothing else, MLB should look into the allegations. What should they do if they find proof? Manny should be fined, and Boras should be censured (unable to represent clients for a year? A fine of some amount? Something). But if this goes uninvestigated, more players will see this as a model for getting out of a contract in search of a more lucrative payday - and they won't all be Scott Boras clients.

United Cardinal Blogger Project - Cubs vs Cardinals

Our pregame prep for this game can be found over at C70 at the Bat.

Thanks Dan, Hi everybody, and a veeeery pleasant good afternoon wherever you may be; welcome to today's game between the 17-12 Cubs, and the 19-11 Cardinals. St. Louis enters today's game in first place in the National League Central, leading Chicago by 1.5 games. The Cardinals fast start over the first 30 games of the season is surprising, given the uncertain nature of their pitching rotation coming out of spring training and the significant changes to their everyday lineup from last year. What's more surprising, however, is that as of today, the Cardinals are the best team in the National League in defense, and have the league's #1 rated pitching staff.

The old mantra is you win with pitching and defense, which they are certainly doing so far.

Your line-ups for today:

CHICAGO CUBS
Soriano LF
Theriot SS
Lee 1B
Fukudome RF
DeRosa 3B
Soto C
Fontenot 2B
R. Johnson CF
Lilly P

ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Schumaker LF
Ryan 2B
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Ankiel CF
Molina C
Lohse P
Izturis SS

The most glaring omission is Aramis Ramirez, who is not in the lineup. He took an Adam Wainwright fastball off the wrist in the sixth inning of last night's game. Ramirez is 5-5 with a HR lifetime against Lohse, so I'm sure Kyle doesn't miss him in the lineup.

Game time temp is a cool 57 degrees, and we're ready to begin!

(Note: I'm listening to the game on XM radio, because, even though the #2 and 3 teams in the NL (by won/loss record) are playing in this game, FOX has decided we'd rather watch Arizona play the Mets. I miss the old NBC Game of the Week, which was actually the Game of the Week, not the regional game of the week.)

Lohse, who's 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA lifetime against the Cubs, starts Soriano with a strike, ball outside, another ball outside. On the 2-1 pitch Soriano hits a shallow pop to right. Ludwick does a nice job fighting the sun and makes the catch.

We're joined today by my youngest son, although he's more interested in chewing on the stuffed dog he brought with him and examining every power cord in the room than the excitement on the radio. I am chasing him around as I try to keep some notes on the inning.

Theriot is next: Strike, off-speed away for a ball, then he hits the 1-1 pitch to Izturis, who retires him 6-3. Two out.

The missus has returned with lunch, and we will all be eating while listening to the game.

Derrek Lee with two away. Cutter away, foul ball to right, ball inside, fastball outside and low, called strike, foul to RF, and on the 3-2 pitch he pops out to first.

1-2-3 go the Cubs, after a half inning, Cubs 0, Cardinals coming up.

In the meantime, my sons are chasing burritos, soda cans, shoes, and whatever is not bolted down to the rug. So far, there's a lot more action at my house than at Busch. Maybe I should do a running play-by-play of the events here?

Nah.

Bottom of the first. Lilly is 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals.

Schumaker gets a nice hand as he steps in. Lilly starts him with a strike; Schumaker hits a chopper to Lee and is retired 3-1.

There is a significant amount of burrito stuffing spread all across the room. It's being used as a diversion by my oldest; we go to clean it up, he takes off for another item (like the soda cans). High comedy.

Brendan Ryan digs in; he's 3 for 11 lifetime against Lilly. Ball high, strike, breaking ball high, swinging strike, and he strikes out swinging on a 2-2 fastball. Two out.

I've hidden my soda under the bed. My youngest, undeterred, has crawled to the bed, and is reaching under it for the can. He now has managed to get his head wedged under the bed. A brief time out as I pull him free.

AP is 5-16 against Ted Lilly. Curve ball for a strike, fastball high, another fastball high, another fastball high. AP tries to hit the 3-1 pitch to East St Louis and swings through it, losing his balance (his loss of balance is not something you see everyday). He fouls the next offering back to the screen, fouls the next pitch out of play off to the right, and then hits a weak grounder back to Lilly. Albert is retired 1-3.

1-2-3 go the Cardinals; after 1, no score.

Lunch is proceeding here at the homestead; the youngest is done, and still annoyed he didn't get the soda can. I need to assist the Missus with the oldest, so thanks for stopping by, and over to John at The Cardinal Virture for the second inning. John?

Until next time...