Lincecum wins Cy Young; Some Appalled

In case you hadn't heard, and I hadn't due to being at an off-site today, Tim Lincecum repeated as NL Cy Young winner, in one of the closer votes ever. It was so close that Adam Wainwright had more first place votes, but finished third overall. Chris Carpenter finished second. 10 points separated the three hurlers.

As can be expected, some Cardinal writers are incensed by this result, and that's fine. And as is typical in these types of contests, some voter ranking choices are being called into question. Interestingly, my rankings closely matched Keith Law's ballot, except I had Carpenter third instead of Wainwright. I never thought I'd agree with Keith Law on anything.

I am on record as saying Lincecum, Wainwright, and Carpenter were all worthy candidates, and whoever won amongst the three of them would be deserving. But based on the results, and some of what's been written by other writers, there are a couple of things I wanted to at least throw out there.

- Innings pitched should not enter into the Cy Young argument. What, no reliever can ever win a Cy Young again? Besides, to say one pitcher is less qualified than another because he threw 40 fewer innings, in this day and age, is ridiculous. Most pitchers don't go more than seven innings a start anymore as a general rule. Assuming a starter gets 32 starts in a season, and goes 7 innings in all of them, he'll rack up 224 innings. Lincecum averaged 7.04 innings/start (225 1/3 innings, 32 starts). Wainwright - 6.85 (233 innings, 2 more starts). Carpenter 6.88 (192 2/3, 4 fewer starts). So on the average, each guy lasted almost as long per game as the other two. It's a wash. Total IP shouldn't be the deciding factor.

Advanced statistical metrics exist to take some of these things off the table; to allow the serious observer of the game to strip things the pitcher can't control away (like how long the manager will leave him in the game) and evaluate him based on his talent alone. If anything Carpenter is MORE deserving of the award based on total innings pitched. He missed 6 weeks with a strained muscle in his midsection, and upon his return he was as dominating as he was before he got hurt. Compare that to Lohse, who was never the same after getting hit by a pitch, or Lincecum, who tired down the stretch.

- That said, some statistical metrics may be overrated. There was a comment at the bottom of Jeff Gordon's post regarding FIP, that it's too heavily weighted by strikeouts. FIP, as the name implies, takes the contribution of the defense out, evaluating the pitcher on the things he alone can control. (HR*13+(BB+HBP+IBB)*3-K*2)/innings pitched is the equation. You can see that strikeouts will raise the numerator's total value, bringing it closer to innings pitched and lowering the quotient. So it is a short walk to obvious-ville to say guys with high strikeout totals and high innings pitched will have a lower FIP than others. Lincecum led the NL in FIP at 2.34. and K with 261.

But pitching isn't all about strikeouts, nor just preventing HR, and the like. Pitching is about getting guys out and not allowing the other team to score. I did my ranking largely based on the FIP and WAR of the major candidates, but using FIP (and to a lesser extent, WAR) does a disservice to guys who successfully pitch to contact. Keith Law's ballot also appears to be largely influenced by FIP and WAR (in fact, his top 3 exactly match the WAR rankings for starting pitching). There's got to be a better way than ERA to evaluate pitching that doesn't rely heavily on strikeouts.

In the end, it is what it is. Carpenter and Wainwright had outstanding seasons. For Cardinal fans, the hope is 2009 wasn't a career year. Perhaps the Cy Young results will help motivate these guys for 2010.

2009 NL Gold Glove Awardees - based solely on ???

Straight from MLB, here are the players acknowledged as the best defenders in the NL in 2009:

1B - Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
2B - Orlando Hudson (LA)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (WASH)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
C - Yadier Molina (STL)
OF - Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF - Michael Bourn (HOU)
OF - Matt Kemp (LA)
P - Adam Wainwright (STL)

Congratulations to Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright for winning this season.

For those new to the program, I highlighted the players I projected as winners in yesterday's column. Let's compare the projected folks with the winners. Fangraphs.com provides a repository of UZR data. I had hoped to include Dewan's Plus/Minus data as well (which Joe Posnanski likes to quote), but I can't find the database on line. If anyone knows where I can access that data, I'd be grateful if you include the link in the comments.

First Base - Adrian Gonzalez winning the award isn't that egregious an error. His raw UZR (3.8) was higher than Lee's (3.7). Also, Gonzalez had one more charged error in 120 more innings. Whatever your feelings are on errors, that's pretty good.

Second Base - Chase Utley had the third highest UZR in the NL this season. Orlando Hudson's was -3.7. Negative three point seven! Hudson cost the Dodgers 14 more runs than Utley did. Freddie Sanchez, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Phillips, Clint Barmes, hell even Kaz Matsui would have been better choices than Hudson. Talk about someone winning the award on reputation alone.

Third Base - No argument. The right guy won.

Shortstop - Jimmy Rollins started 152 games; JJ Hardy - 110. That must have been the deciding factor. Hardy had a better raw UZR, RngR, RF/G, and RF/9 than Rollins. In fact, the only statistics Rollins had an advantage was ErrR and Errors (Rollins - 6, Hardy - 8). If Hardy's 110 starts were a deal breaker, Ryan Theriot and Rafael Furcal both started 140+ games and saved their teams 6 more runs than Rollins did.

Outfield - The outfield voting always pisses me off, because the award usually goes to 3 center fielders. OH LOOK - that's what happened this year. Except this year's voting was worse than most.

Bourn's UZR was 8.7, Kemp's 3.2, and Victorino's -4.2. Not only were there better options in LF and RF than the winners (Ibanez's 10.7 in LF and Randy Wynn's 20.1 playing 104 games in RF), but there were 3 better CF than the winners - Nyjer Morgan (35.8), Colby Rasmus (13.7), and Mike Cameron (10.4).

The voting would be laughable except for the impact it will have on salaries for these guys and possible HOF credentials. Nothing happens in a vacuum, so to see worthy defenders ignored because of what appears to be a lack of criteria for evaluating defense is criminal. Back before 2002, using fielding percentage and errors was the best way to differentiate the good defenders from the bad. That's no longer true, with the advent of advanced statistical metrics like plus/minus and UZR.

MLB should do two things to make these awards meaningful: Mandate that voters look at advanced defensive metrics when making decisions, and take the vote away from managers/coaches - give it to an impartial body of evaluators. My guess is you could find a sabermetric organization (hey - how about SABR?) willing to sponsor the numbers part of it and distribute that data to the voters.

Otherwise, Dave Cameron is right - the award has no meaning and we should not care about the results.

Well... So Much For That

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.

What About a Four Man Rotation?

Brad Thompson getting suspended, while Guillermo Mota walks free, is an absolute farce. Hitting a guy up by 13 to protect your hitter is OK, but buzzing a guy up by 7 to protect your hitter isn't? Mota threw with intent, Thompson didn't.

Anyway, on one of the recent United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour shows, Pip from Fungoes raised the question of LaRussa going with a 4-man rotation. After all, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Mitchell Boggs haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. Well they have lit it up, just the wrong way - 10-15, 5+ ERA. Why not just skip that spot in the rotation?

This idea intrigued me.

Starting tomorrow, the Cardinals have 59 games left. With a 5-man rotation, that's 12 starts each for the first 4, and 11 for the #5 slot. With a 4-man rotation, that's 15 starts each for Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero, and 14 for Lohse.

There are a number of off-days between now and the end of the season - 6 to be exact. If they line up right, then the Cardinals could skip 6 starts by the #5 guy. This is good, right?

Well, it's not that good. The off days don't line up exactly like one would want:

6 Aug - Off day
6 games
13 Aug - Off day
10 games
24 Aug - Off day
6 games
31 Aug - Off day
9 games
10 Sept - Off day
6 games
17 Sept - Off day
6 games
24 Sept - Off day
10 games
End regular season.

CC Sabathia threw his last 4 games in 2008 on 3-days rest. Not everyone is CC Sabathia. I definitely don't think the Cardinals will try and pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest, given his medical history. I doubt they'll take that chance/accept that risk with Wainwright or Piniero.

So, if they try to keep them all on 4 days rest, the off-days don't help, and they'll have to use a #5 starter 9 times.

So LaRussa would save himself two starts from Wellemeyer's replacement.

Doesn't sound like its worth it. I like the idea of going with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, and Lohse, but it won't work in practice. Sorry, Pip.

Live Blog and Double Header Wrap Up

As predicted, I didn't make it into the Live Blog for the early game yesterday. Although I did watch part of it,just not a very good part of it.

First inning - Cardinals retired in order, Hoffpauir hits 3-R HR. Turned TV off.
Fourth inning - Cardinals have tied it; watched Zambrano hit HR. Turned TV off.

Managed to log in for the second game, at least for a while. Broke away to have dinner with the family, and never got back on line. Kids can be so demanding sometimes. I ended up watching the game in fast forward at about 10:30pm, but by that time the chat was long over.

Some thoughts:

- Figures Ludwick is heating up just in time for a 3-day break. But at least he's heating up. The return of his bat couldn't come at a better time, what with DeRosa on the DL and Ankiel admitting his shoulder is still bothering him.

- Ankiel should sit until he's completely healthy. If there's one thing this team/organization has an overabundance of, its outfielders.

- The play in the top of the fifth with Wainwright was interesting. The rule governing that play is Rule 7.09(f), which reads:

If, in the judgment of the umpire, a base runner willfully and deliberately interferes with a batted ball or a fielder in the act of fielding a batted ball with the obvious intent to break up a double play, the ball is dead. The umpire shall call the runner out for interference and also call out the batter-runner because of the action of his teammate. In no event may bases be run or runs scored because of such action by a runner.

On the replay it looked like Adam stuck his hand in the way of the throw. The fact he slid towards Theriot, and not towards the bag, seemed to bolster this. However, (a) Wainwright is 6'7", and Theriot 5'10", so even as he gets down he's still in the way, (b) Wainwright missed his calling as a volleyball middle-blocker if he's able to predict with that much accuracy where the ball will be before it leaves someone's hand, so it was probably a fluke, and (c) why on earth would a pitcher attempt to block a thrown ball (probably moving at what, 70+ MPH?) with his PITCHING HAND.

The umpire called it incidential contact and that (to my mind) was correct. Of course, if Zambrano had been hit on the pitching hand instead of Wainwright, it clearly would have been interference.

- Piniella's pitching/outfielder adventure was amusing, but didn't change the outcome. It would have much more fun if our Hoffpauir had lifted a fly ball to left. Although the result would have sucked, wouldn't it have been cool to see a pitcher catch a fly ball then throw out a runner at home plate? How many times has that ever happened?

At any rate, a split of the series will work. The Cardinals didn't bury the Cubs, like they could have with a 4-game sweep; we all knew that was a long shot, however, given how Thompson had struggled in his previous 3 starts (and validated by his effort on Saturday). And Lohse was not sharp in his first start off the DL, which I probably should have expected; drawing Zambrano didn't help either.

We'll look at it this way - a 10 game road trip, through (a) a pre-season favorite to win the Division, (b) a team that thinks it has a shot to contend, and (c) last year's defending Division champ, which ends 6-4, is a success. They left tied for first; they come to the break witha 2.5 game lead in the division, and having picked up ground on every team in the division except Houston (who were 3.5 back on 2 July and still are).

They play .540 ball the rest of the way they win 88 games. And that might just be enough this year in the Central.

HR Derby tonight, ASG tomorrow, off-day Wednesday.

Post plans for this week include first-half grades for the team, a Musial v Pujols article, and the next Series Preview. So stay tuned for that.

"He's not the best hitter in the game for nothing, folks!"

Every time I watch Albert hit, I appreciate just a little bit more what I'm seeing. I understand, just a little, what it must have been like to watch Musial hit. Or Williams. Or Dimaggio in his prime.

My God he's good.

Facing a guy who's tortured the Cardinals throughout his career, most notably during the 2005 NLCS, and who had never lost at neo-Busch, the Cardinals roughed him up for 6 runs in 5 innings enroute to a 11-2 rout.

If you watched the first two innings, there were no indications the game would turn out like this. Oswalt faced the minimum, while Wainwright was performing a high wire act, stranding 4 runners in scoring position. After the Cardinals pushed across a run in the third, Adam stranded two more runners, then settled down, retiring the last 7 hitters he faced. Oswalt navigated the fourth without incident, but the wheels came off in the fifth.

Bringing us back to AP. Six pitch at bat in the first, leading to a line out to third (Rasmus was doubled off first on the play). Five pitch at bat in the fourth; popped to third. LaRussa, in the book 'Three Days in August', preached an aggressive approach at the plate in an RBI situation. AP clearly took that to heart. He hit the first pitch into Big Mac Land. It probably helped having seen the other 11 pitches his first two trips.

The game safely in hand, based on the Astros lack of run production so far this season (they're hitting .276 as a team, but only the KC Royals have driven in fewer runs then their 16), LaRussa called Jason Motte from the bullpen. One scoreless inning, two strikeouts. I thought this a good move to give the kid a low leverage inning of work, build some confidence, work in an off-speed pitch, you know the drill.

AP returned to the plate in the seventh to face the Houston reliever W Wright. On the fifth pitch of that at bat, he hammered another ball to left for a 3-R HR. Ballgame. AP got to watch the rest of the game from the comfort of the bench.

Dennys Reyes threw a scoreless inning, and Thompson closed out the game, albeit surrendering 2 meaningless runs in the ninth.

Pujols' heroics overshadow Wainwright struggling for the second start in a row. Adam has struck out 11 so far this season, but he's walked 8. For his career, he's struck out almost 2.5 more guys than he's walked (2.32 to be exact); this year it's 1.37. Proving the vagracies associated with the awarding of wins and losses in baseball, he's one blown save away from being 2-0 in that span; and if the bullpen hadn't botched the sixth inning on Opening Day, he wouldn't have given up a run yet. We need to monitor this as closely as I'm sure LaRussa and Duncan are.

Of course, if AP continues to swing the hot bat, and the rest of the lineup continues to give him opportunities to drive in runs, a lot of flaws in the pitching staff can be forgiven.

Be grateful Pujols plays for us. We won't see his like again for a long time.

Not the Droids We Were Looking For

The major problem we had last year - closing out games with the lead - reared its ugly head in a big way on Opening Day. Staked to a 4-2 lead, and with 2 out in the ninth, Jason Motte surrendered 4 runs, and the Cardinals lost 6-4.

It's early. It's very early. But the one day returns are not encouraging.

I 'watched' the game from work, courtesy of ESPN.com. Interesting side note: ESPN has updated it's Gamecast to include probability of winning at the top of the page, stealing a slice of life from fangraphs. Before the Pirates got 2 in the sixth, Cardinals win prob was about 82%. Even after that, St Louis had a 56% shot at winning. I can only imagine how high it was with two out, a guy on third, and a 1-2 count on the hitter.

Wainwright seemed shaky, although he danced out of trouble for 5 innings. That sixth was painful to watch - 3 walks, then the tying double off Kinney. I assume Ludwick made a great throw to nail Maholm at the plate, ending the inning. How about Maholm? Single and 2 walks in 3 trips to the plate. Someday I'm going to invent a NL fantasy league where pitcher hitting statistics count in the team totals.

Via SportsCenter highlights, I saw a little of Motte's outing in the ninth. There are folks out there with a lot more time watching him, so my single sample size experience is definitely skewed. He didn't seem to have a secondary pitch besides his fastball. Again, selective highlight editing skews that perception.

Assuming he has a breaking ball of some sort, his fastball is what disturbed me. It doesn't move at all. He throws hard - high 90s - but it's straight. I've seen this before in a Cardinal closer. Todd Worrell. Todd threw gas, but it was straight gas. And good fastball hitters, of which MLB is loaded with, will eventually time it and turn it around. Especially if they get to watch hitter after hitter get fed the same pitch (as Jack Wilson did). Again, one-sample size set, no other data to go off, but if Jason Motte is a 'here it is, hit it if you can' kind of guy, NL hitters will feast on him. And it will be a long year.

Carp to throw today; Cardinals torn between Waffle House and IHOP

Citing it as the 'bullpen session upon which the rest of the season rests', Chris Carpenter will throw today to test his sore tricep. For the first time, at least to my eyes, Carp admitted there was more than just muscle discomfort that drove him from his 11 August start against Chicago; there's discomfort when 'he raises his arm to a specific position'.

Ugh.

So Carp may be on the shelf for the rest of the year. OK, no problem; we've got Wainwright waiting in the wings. the Post-Dispatch story is accurate about when the Cardinals need a fifth starter next (2 Sept at Arizona). Assuming LaRussa/Duncan leave the rotation as is (which they may not, given the 6 off-days the teams has from now until the end of the year), here's how it stacks up. August opponents are here, September ones here.

19 Aug - Looper
20 Aug -Wellemeyer
21 Aug - OFF
22 Aug - Piniero
23 Aug - Lohse
24 Aug - Looper
25 Aug - OFF
26 Aug - Wellemeyer (Brewers)
27 Aug - Piniero (Brewers)
28 Aug - OFF
29 Aug - Lohse
30 Aug - Looper
31 Aug - Wellemeyer
1 Sept - Piniero
2 Sept - TBD
3 Sept - Lohse
4 Sept - OFF
5 Sept - Looper
6 Sept - Wellemeyer
7 Sept - Piniero
8 Sept - OFF
9 Sept - Lohse (Cubs)
10 Sep - Looper (Cubs)
11 Sep - Wellemeyer (Cubs)
12 Sep - Piniero
13 Sep - TBD
14 Sep - Lohse
15 Sep - OFF
16 Sep - Looper
17 Sep - Wellemeyer
18 Sep - Piniero
19 Sep - Lohse (at Wrigley)
20 Sep - TBD (at Wrigley)
21 Sep - Looper (at Wrigley)
22 Sep - Wellemeyer
23 Sep - Piniero
24 Sep - Lohse
25 Sep - TBD
26 Sep - Looper
27 Sep - Wellemeyer
28 Sep - Piniero

Later on in the Post-Dispatch story, this gem of a quote appears, attributed to John Mozeliak:

General manager John Mozeliak doesn't want to feed speculation. Yet
Mozeliak admits Carpenter's status directly affects how and when starter
Adam Wainwright returns from a 2½-month absence.

"I don't see it as that big a deal," Mozeliak said Monday about Carpenter's
toss. "I think it's important to get both guys back. (Today) might define how
Wainwright could be used. But in terms of how the next two weeks shake out,
I don't think it makes that much difference."

You're kidding, right? Not that big a deal? Having Wellemeyer (ok) and Piniero (crapshoot) start the two most important games remaining on the schedule (against the Brewers, based on current standings) is OK, vice having Wainwright or Carp potentially start one of them (and Carpenter is eligible to come off the DL 26 August)? WOW. Agreed, to throw Wainwright against Milwaukee in a high leverage, high intensity game right off the bat isn't ideal; nor is throwing Carp in the same situation his first start back off the DL, but I think even Mozeliak would agree both are better pitchers than Piniero.

The other thing I can't believe from that article is the idea that Wainwright, if not shifted to the back end of the bullpen (and Perez/McClellan have so far proven up to the task of closing out games), would be used in long relief:

"Different" doesn't necessarily mean Wainwright would return immediately as the Cardinals' closer. Rookie Chris Perez's positive showing since inheriting the closer's role from Jason Isringhausen means Wainwright could be activated to work in long relief.

I almost spit coffee on the screen after reading that sentence. We're fighting for a playoff spot, Wainwright has been the team's best starter since the all-star break last year, and the best thing for this team is to relegate him to long relief?

DOUBLE WOW.

What in the name of Ken Reitz is going on here?

Hail Yadier! (hail yadier)

Sounds like Molina had a game for the ages last night, at least, according to the description in the online Post-Dispatch this morning.

Very short post today - I have the duty, and off to relieve the watch - so some random thoughts for your to chew on:

Dan over at C70 at the bat made a point yesterday that I wanted to discuss briefly. He commented on Pujols' propensity to pop up, especially with guys on base. His frustration is understandable; AP is the best hitter on the team, and we expect him to succeed all the time driving in guys in scoring position. If memory serves he hit over .400 last season with runners in scoring position (or was that 2006? It's getting fuzzy), so there's some reason for our expectations.

Pop ups, in my opinion, mean one of two things - either your swing has a huge uppercut, or you're just missing the ball. AP does not have a huge uppercut to his swing. In fact, he repeats the same swing at bat after at bat. It's quite remarkable, actually. Which means he's just missing. When a guy fouls a ball straight back, it means he was right on the pitch but the plane of his bat was about a baseball's width below the pitched baseball's trajectory; hence he gets the bottom of the ball and sends it into the backstop. On a pop-up, the plane of his bat is about a 1/2 baseball width below the pitched ball's trajectory. That means, on a baseball that's less than 3 inches in diameter, his swing is an inch too low.

This is very simplistic, for it doesn't take into account the spin on the ball and the effect that has on its flight after its struck by the bat.

Albert centers the ball on the bat as well as anyone that has played the game. When he pops up, I shake my head and shrug, because he just missed it. You can damn well bet the pitcher is breathing a huge sigh of relief. Not only did he get AP out, but he knows AP just missed sending that pitch into the deepest reaches of the stadium.

The other item is Wainwright going to the bullpen when he comes back off the DL. This is dumb, we need him in the rotation, but it also says to me his tendon injury is worse than reported, and the club doesn't want to risk further injury with the stress of starting.

Cardinals Win; Pujols Sidelined

I'm minding the store for my boss this week, as he is on travel, so this will have to be brief. Cardinals won last night in Cincinnati 7-2. The big news should have been Mitchell Boggs' first ML win, but instead it's AP's strained calf.

I saw the replay of him running out of the box on ESPN.com this morning; I wouldn't characterize it as 'pretty bad,' as Mozeliak said, but it certainly won't be something that he bounces back from before this weekend.

If he does have to go on the DL, what a crappy way to start the week - first Wainwright with his finger, now AP and his calf. I can't help but wonder, based on AP sitting most of the Washington series out last week with the calf, if he didn't rush himself back into the lineup too soon and do more damage.

And Rolen's calf injury in Sept 2004 immediately leapt to mind as I watched that replay. Rolen sat most of that month with the injury and (other than a superlative effort in the LCS against Houston, which was mostly driven by anger against LaRussa) wasn't himself the rest of that season.

Yikes. Keep a good thought.

Larry over at Vivaelbirdos has a great article on Wainwright's finger prognosis, which I won't try and top here; it's worth the read if you haven't seen it yet.

One final thought - the Cardinals announced Piniero will start tomorrow against Cincinnati, as he comes off the DL after a groin injury. I can't help but think this is a case of LaRussa hard-headedness and Piniero is going out there too soon after the injury. Here's why. As you know, I play a little softball in my spare time. About 5 years ago I strained my groin going after a fly ball in RC (which approximates how Piniero strained his). I sat out the rest of that game because I couldn't push off with my left leg; it took me a month to feel like I could run again comfortably, and another two weeks before I was willing to test it running full speed.

Clearly, although I'm in reasonable shape, I'm not a professional athlete in prime physical condition with access to virtually unlimited resources for medical care and rehabilitation. However, I play the outfield, where the action is somewhat sparse. I was playing 2-3 times a week at that point, and ended up not playing for almost a month. Piniero is a pitcher, at the center of each and every play in the game, and he's only been sidelined 3 weeks. He's going to put a lot more stress on that muscle immediately, and if it's a little bit tender he's going to damage it again.

Wouldn't Reyes be a better option in the short-term to protect Piniero long-term? Is LaRussa's anti-Anthony stance blinded him to his options here? If Reyes is considered that low of a prospect at this point, maybe the Cardinals would be better off DFA-ing him and moving on.

(When Piniero throws a 2-hit shutout today forget we had this conversation)