Bloody Brilliant

If Tim McClelland's blown double play call during ALCS Game 4 was the worst call in the history of umpiring, Jimmy Rollins' deke around second base in the bottom of the fifth ining, World Series Game 1, is the greatest piece of baseball deception in the history of the universe.

It was so good Robinson Cano ran hard to first even though he was already out.

It was soo good Hideki Matsui made no attempt to get back to first to avoid being doubled off.

It was sooo good the umpires had to confer for 5 minutes to make sure they understood what they saw.

It was soooo good 55K+ Yankee fans were completely fooled.

It was sooooo good Fox had to run through the replay 3x before they accurately reported what happened.


Yeah, that was awesome.

The Post Where I Agree With Everybody

Much like Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs, I'm glad the Angels won last night. This means there'll be baseball on Saturday night. In my Plato-ideal world, the California Angels will win tomorrow night too, forcing baseball on Sunday.

At some level, the AL teams should be happy their ALCS is extended another game, shortening the time off they will have between the conclusion of this series and the start of the World Series. Remember the 2006 Tigers? They had a week off, and it showed during their WS loss to St Louis - they were rusty. Hard to believe after a 6-month season a team could get that far out of whack with 7 days off, but remember: the only break of comparable length is the 4 days off around the All-Star Break. These guys are used to playing every day.

Which is another reason why the long breaks between series, and the indefensible off-day between Games 4 and 5 of the LCS, is so exasperating. I believe MLB is actually hurting the competitive nature of the playoffs by artifically extending the schedule. No I don't have any hard statistical evidence to back that up; I hope to develop this thesis during the off-season. But philosophically, here's the jist of my argument. If MLB teams craft their rosters to compete over a 162-game season, negate that team aspect of the game during the post-season? Specifically with starting pitching. I don't know if this will just be me proposing another unpopular opinion that has no basis in fact. But I hope to soon.

Phillies the best team in the NL. Obviously we say that now since they've won the League title. But based on how the playoffs played out, Philadelphia has the best team. Best lineup, best pitching staff, deepest bench, solidifying bullpen. If the NL is to win the World Series for the third time in 4 years, this Philadelphia team gives the league its best shot. And for those who think the Yankees will win the LCS and roll over the NL in the Series: I believe this will be a better Series than you do. I believe it will go at least 6. And I believe the Phillies has a good shot at repeating.

Oh, the wonders of pitch selection. In two key situations during the ALCS, the pitch thrown has made me question what the pitcher/catcher were thinking. The first was the 0-2 fastball Fuentes left up in the zone to A-Rod in Game 2. I still can't get over this. Behind A-Rod was Guzman and Gardner. A-Rod was the only bat in that inning that had even a remote chance of hurting the Angels (of the three scheduled hitters). YOU'RE AHEAD 0-2. Why throw him anything in the strike zone, especially after throwing 2 fastballs for strikes. Now, A-Rod might have gotten a pitch later in the at-bat to hit; we don't know. But that pitch was ridiculous.

The other was Hughes' 1-2 fastball to Vladimir Guerrero last night. Tim McCarver went on and on about how lousy this pitch choice was, especially after Guerrero looked really bad on the 1-1 curveball the pitch before. As near as I can tell, of the 18 pitches Hughes threw in the seventh 3 were curveballs, and on all three he got a swinging strike (I can't seem to get GameDay on MLB.com to come up from work. Crap.). Seeing as Guerrero is a dead fastball hitter, WHY throw a fastball in that count? And as it turned out, why throw a straight 4-seam fastball in that count?

Intentional Walks. Joe Posnanski is on record for hating the intentional walk on principle, in almost any instance. I've never thought much about the intentional walk per se; I believe there are times when it is called for, if used properly. However, I don't believe Fuentes' intentional walk of A-Rod was one of those times. Why? Because:

- There were two outs in the ninth and no one on.
- Scioscia basically admitted, 'I don't trust my highly-paid closer to get A-Rod out with the game on the line.' What happens when, tomorrow or Sunday night, Fuentes has to get A-Rod out with no where to put him? Is Scioscia going to take Fuentes out in that situation?
- It seemed to get into Fuentes' head. He couldn't find the plate to the next two hitters, walking Matsui and hitting Cano. He jumped ahead 0-2 to Swisher because Swisher went to the plate with his head up his ass. I mean, seriously: Fuentes suddenly has command issues, so why are you hacking at the first two things he throws up there?

The Angels were lucky to survive and win last night's game.

At any rate, the UCB is conducting a round-robin this week. I'll have a question and responses up on Monday here and at the UCB Home Page. Also, the BBA is voting on MVPs, so I'll have that story up over there Monday as well (there'll be a link to the BBA site here Monday afternoon).

Well... So Much For That

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.

NLDS Game 2 Recap - Dodgers Get Early Holliday Present

It's been a number of hours since the ninth inning unfolded, which is enough time to reflect. It looked, on the replay, like Holliday lost the ball as it descended. He said as much after the game. I haven't played a lot of baseball recently, but I still play a LOT of softball, and I can completely understand what Holliday went through. When a ball gets lost in the lights or in the sun, you put your glove up where you think the ball is going to come down and hope it lands in your glove.

Most of the post game reaction around the Cardinal blogs and sites I frequent focused in on Holliday's failure to catch that ball. And make no mistake, it was a big play. But it wasn't the only play that led to the 3-2 loss.

- After Holliday's HR, Ludwick and Molina singled. But DeRosa struck out and Rasmus hit into a double play to end the threat.

- Again numerous runners left on base. St Louis was oh for nine with runners in scoring position.

- Rasmus getting thrown out at third in the seventh. Yes, he was being aggressive, and yes Loney made a great play to cut the throw off and nail Rasmus at third. But there was no one out when Rasmus rapped the double - why try to take the extra base, with Wainwright on deck? One, Adam would probably be asked to sacrifice and get Rasmus to third. Two, even if he can't get Rasmus over, Rasmus is one of the fastest men on the roster; I still feel good about my chances.

Now, it's impossible to predict how the rest of that inning would have played out, but just for argument's sake. Wainwright sacrifices Rasmus to third. Torre, who's watched Wainwright manhandle his lineup, brings the infield in. Lugo's single scores Rasmus to give St Louis a 3-1 lead. Inning develops from there.

- Then we get to the ninth. Even after Holliday muffed the ball, there were still 2 outs, and the Cardinals still had the lead. But the Cardinals self-destructed. Give Blake credit for the nine-pitch at bat that turned into a walk. Franklin lays a pitch in to Belliard who sends it back up the middle. The passed ball. The walk to Martin. The Loretta jam job hit. Ball Game.

St Louis had, arguably, two of the best 3 pitchers in the NL this season. They lost both games with those guys on the mound. It's a huge hill they have to climb now.

Let me leave you with some hope. On October 11, 1985, the Cardinals flew back to St Louis down 0-2 to the Dodgers. They had played poorly in the first two games, and looked dead in the water. They came back to win all their home games and the series. That's what this team needs to do.

Colleen Dominguez reported on SportsCenter (at 2214 Thursday night) that Adam Wainwright said, "If anyone thinks this series is over - think again." Enough said.

NLDS Game 1 Recap - Gridlock

One of the biggest concerns I had going into the playoffs was the Cardinals' offense, in that as a team they had trouble getting guys on base. Well, much like the traffic in Southern California streaming onto the highway, St Louis really had no issues getting guys on last night. Bringing them around became another matter; again just like traffic in So Cal during rush hour, Cardinal baserunners just sat there. Fourteen baserunners left on. Ouch.

On a night when Chris Carpenter clearly did not have his best stuff - I can't remember him recently leaving as many pitches over the middle of the plate as he did in the first inning - a lift from the offense would have really helped. Didn't happen.

Some thoughts from last night:

1. Four. Hours. Post-season baseball, everybody!

2. St Louis had two early chances to hammer Randy Wolf, and let them slip away. The first three Cardinal hitters reached to start the game and only one scored. Molina's DP was a killer, although Holliday striking out looking was the out that turned that inning for the Dodgers. Then the Dodgers assisted by helping St Louis load the bases in the fourth (AP intentional walk, Holliday hit by pitch). But Ludwick let that get away with a weak tap to the pitcher. I know he's down 0-2 and needed to protect, but from my living room Weaver's pitch looked clearly outside; why offer at it?

3. I evaluated the Cardinal bullpen as better than the Dodger pen based on IP and % of inherited runners scoring. Last night:

Dodger bullpen: 5 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 5 K. They would have held the Cardinals scoreless except for a horrendous decision by Matt Kemp on DeRosa's ball in the ninth.

Cardinal bullpen: 3 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 3 K. High wire act. The fact they only gave up 1 run was something of a miracle.

Advantage Dodgers.

4. Why pinch hit Glaus for Rasmus with 2 on and 2 out in the seventh? Consider this:

Rasmus vs Kuo (career): 0-2, 2K
Glaus vs Kuo (career, before last night's AB): 0-3, K, BB.

Rasmus vs LH (career): .160/.219/.255 in 115 PA
Glaus vs LH (2009): 4 PA, 0-3. Career: .277/.399/.578 (1523 PA).

Yes Kuo is a lefty and Glaus a righty. However, IMHO, Glaus hitting there was more of a genuflection at the altar of 'The Book' then a smart baseball move. Why do I think it wasn't a smart substitution? Because Glaus' been hurt all year and has faced virtually no LH pitching in 2009. He couldn't get around on the high gas, and the one pitch he had to hit he fouled straight back. Rust. Oh, well.

5. On that note, how short handed the Cardinals are on the bench was never more evident than watching Glaus hit in the seventh, then waiting for the inevitable Ankiel strikeout to end the game.

6. Did DeRosa air mail that throw to second in the third inning or what? It was so bad a throw it was funny. Too bad, because he made a great play to get to Blake's ball in the first place.

7. You know it's not your night when Pierre screws up the sac bunt, but Molina can't field it cleanly and then can't get Belliard at third. Molina's frustration was clear on the replay.

8. One final reason for renewing your Maalox prescription. This is LaRussa's eighth NLDS as Cardinal manager. How did he fare in the previous 7 Game 1's?

1996 - Beat San Diego (home), won series 3-0
2000 - Beat Atlanta (home), won series 3-0
2001 - Lost to Arizona (road), lost series 2-3
2002 - Beat Arizona (home), won series 3-0
2004 - Beat Los Angeles (home), won series 3-0
2005 - Beat San Diego (home), won series 3-1
2006 - Beat San Diego (road), won series 3-1

Yep - the only NLDS LaRussa's lost as the Cardinals manager started with a loss on the road in Game 1. Granted they lost that NLDS largely because the Cardinal bullpen collapsed in the seventh inning of Game 3, and the Cardinals provided 1 run of support in Matt Morris' two spectacular starts, but still.

Most prognosticators, myself included, looked at last night's starters and penciled Carpenter in for a win. Didn't happen. Now, we have the best pitching matchup of the series - Wainwright vs Kershaw - and need to win. Make no mistake, tonight is a must win for St Louis. Wainwright better bring his A+ game. If he's the best pitcher this season, we need him now.

Otherwise, the Cardinals will turn to Pineiro and Lohse to save their season. I think we're all pretty OK with Pineiro starting Game 3 in St Louis, but given the physical issues Lohse has fought all year, sending this series back to LA would be a tall order indeed.

We need you Adam.

NLDS Preview - Los Angeles

At long last, the second season is upon us. St Louis will play the Dodgers in the NLDS. Winner gets the winner of Philadelphia/Colorado. Loser thinks of ‘what might have been’.

Los Angeles has been the best team in the National League this season. St Louis turned a fantastic run from late July through early September into a National League Central Crown.

End of the Year Snapshot

St Louis: NL Central Champions, but lost 8 of their last 10 games, including getting swept at home by Milwaukee.

Los Angeles: NL West Champions, best record in the league. Lost 6 of their last 10 games, but won on Saturday and Sunday.

Playoff History

The Cardinals and Dodgers have met three times in the playoffs since the advent of the divisional format in 1969. They played a memorable NLCS in 1985, won by St Louis in 6, which included two of the more memorable HRs hit in Cardinal playoff history – the ‘Go Crazy, Folks!’ Ozzie Smith HR to win Game 5, and Tommy Lasorda’s famous last words to Tom Niedenfuer (‘Don’t give him anything good to hit’), which led to a fat fastball deposited high up the LF bleachers by Jack Clark. They’ve met twice in the Divisional round – 2004 (Cardinal sweep), and 2005 (Cardinals in 4).

So to summarize: 3 series, all won by St Louis. St Louis is 3-3 in Chavez Ravine and 7-0 in St Louis against the Dodgers.

Team Metrics

wOBA. Los Angeles finished tied for 4th in the NL in weighted On Base Average. Ronnie Belliard (.446), Manny (.396), Andre Ethier (.370), and Matt Kemp (.367) lead the way for the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see if Joe Torre continues to play Belliard over Orlando Hudson (.342). Guys dragging them down include the formerly formidable Russell Martin (.307), Blake DeWitt (.271), and Mark Loretta (.265).

St Louis finished 8th in the league, paced by Albert Pujols (.449). Of the potential starters Holliday (.423), Molina (.337), and Schumaker (.336) come next. Julio Lugo (.351) has put up good numbers, but as we’ll see, his defense is, shall we say, suspect. Guys not getting on include Rasmus (.311) DeRosa (.304), and Ankiel (.288). LaRussa hasn’t gotten much out of CF with the bat this season.

Just for the heck of it, here’s a comparision of individual hitters (standard AVG / OBP / SLG format) by position.

1B Loney (.281/.357/.399) Pujols (.327/.443/.658)
2B Belliard (.351/.398/.636) Schumaker (.302/.364/.393)
3B Blake (.280/.363/.468) DeRosa (.228/.291/.405)
SS Furcal (.269/.335/.375) Ryan (.292/.340/.400)
C Martin (.250/.352/.329) Molina (.293/.366/.383)
LF Ramirez (.290/.418/.531) Holliday (.353/.419/.604)
CF Kemp (.297/.352/.490) Rasmus (.251/.307/.407)
RF Ethier (.272/.366/.508) Ludwick (.265/.329/.447)
PH Thome (.249/.366/.481) Ankiel (.231/.285/.387)
BN Hudson (.283/.357/.417) Lugo (.281/.357/.399)
BN Pierre (.308/.365/.392)

Comments. Thome’s numbers are for his time with the Chisox and Dodgers, since he only has 32 PA as a Dodger. Lugo’s numbers are with the Cardinals only, he has 170 PA. Belliard is hitting WAY over his head (career line: .275/.339/.418). He is the hot hand at the moment, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue in the playoffs and I would expect Hudson to get playing time. The Cardinals have no real threat off the bench, especially from the right side. Ankiel has not been a good hitter this season and is unreliable at best as a pinch hitter. Your right side options are LaRue, Lugo, Glaus, and Thurston. Wow.

Lineups are a wash. LA has the better bench. Advantage LA.

UZR. LA is 7th in fielding based on UZR, with a 4.4 rating. STL comes in just behind them (8th), but with a -8.0 rating. If we normalize the defensive metric to UZR/150, the Cardinals and Dodgers switch places (-1.2 to -0.2, respectively). In other words, they are average defensively.

Let’s look at individual fielders:

1B Loney (1.5) Pujols (1.8)
2B Belliard (-0.9)/Hudson (-4.1) Schumaker (-4.9)
3B Blake (7.6) DeRosa (-0.2)
SS Furcal (8.1) Ryan (12.4)
C Martin (.994 fielding pct) Molina (.995 fielding pct)
LF Ramirez (-7.8) Holliday (-1.8)
CF Kemp (4.4)/Pierre (6.2) Rasmus (9.2)/Ankiel (6.4)
RF Ethier (-14.1) Ludwick (1.5)

The Dodgers are better at 2B, but frankly that’s not a surprise seeing as Schumaker is playing his first season as a middle infielder. DeRosa has been average at 3B (LF/2B are his natural positions), and Blake is pretty good with the glove. However, St Louis has defensive advantages everywhere else on the diamond. UZR is not calculated for catchers, so I went with the archaic fielding percentage. Two interesting things stand out:

- Loney has been Pujols’ peer with the glove this season
- Ethier is a terrible defensive RF.

Give the edge to St Louis. The Cardinals are a better defensive club.

FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching gives a better measure of pitching prowess than ERA, because it (as the name implies) attempts to take the defense effect out of the equation. The mathematical definition can be found here.

The Dodgers and Cardinals are a virtual dead heat in FIP, 3.80 to 3.82, respectively. How do the starters stack up?

1 Wolf (3.96) Carpenter (2.78)
2 Kershaw (3.08) Wainwright (3.11)
3 Padilla (3.40) Pineiro (3.28)
4? Billingsley (3.82) Lohse (4.55)

Very similar starting staffs. Here’s another argument for using Smoltz in the rotation instead of Lohse: Smoltz’s FIP is 2.73 as a Cardinal.

Bullpens. Looking at the bullpens, I evaluated innings pitched and stranded runner percentage for each. To me, stranded runner percentage is a better metric of how good a bullpen is; if they can prevent inherited runners from scoring, they are pretty effective. Innings pitched gives some indication of how tired the pen is, and perhaps whether or not their effectiveness will be diminished.

LA: 553 IP (2nd most in NL to San Diego), 71% of inherited runners stranded (6th in NL)
STL: 437 IP (lowest in NL), 77% of inherited runners stranded (best in NL).

Managers

Joe Torre. This will be his second foray into the playoffs as the Dodgers’ manager. As you probably recall, he advanced to the NLCS last year, but lost to Philadelphia and was really derailed by Matt Stairs’ mammoth HR in game 5. He’s been to the playoffs 15 times via 13 division titles (1 with ATL, 10 with NYY, 2 with LA), and 2 wild cards (both with the Yankees). He’s also been to the playoffs for 14 consecutive years as a manager, which I believe ties Bobby Cox’s major league record. He hasn’t won a league pennant since 2003, and last year was the first time since 2004 he’d taken his team to the LCS. A savvy, experienced manager, Torre’s won 6 League Championships and 4 World Series, all with the Yankees.

Tony LaRussa. LaRussa returns to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2006. This will be his 13th post-season appearance overall. Tony’s had a lot of success in the Divisional Round, but not so much at the LCS/WS level, however, he does have 5 League Championships and 2 World Series titles to his credit (3 and 1 with Oakland, 2 and 1 with the Cardinals). There’s not much, if anything, Joe Torre can dream up that LaRussa hasn’t either thought of or implemented.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24) vs Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23).
Carpenter: 37-24 career on 5 days rest. He’s never lost to the Dodgers (5-0, 2.24), and won both starts against them in 2009. In Chavez Ravine, he’s 2-0, but with a 4.85 ERA – and that’s including his 8-inning, 1 run masterpiece on August 17. He has handled the current Dodger roster – .216/.282/.344 against in 245 PA. Best hitters against him: Manny (.267/.371/.533, 2 HR) and Thome (.292/.393/.708, also 2 HR).

Wolf: Left-handed pitcher. Pitching on regular rest (58-49 career on 4 days rest). He’s 3-5, 3.64 career vs St Louis, and 4-3, 3.63 in 18 starts at home in 2009. He faced the Cardinals once in 2009, losing in St Louis on July 27. Best Cardinal hitters against him: AP (.313/.368/.375), and Holliday (.313/.389/.688, HR). Cardinals as a team have hit .255/.331/.362 in 162 PA.

Game 2: Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63) vs Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79). Rematch of 19 August game won by St Louis.
Wainwright: 15-9 career on 5 days rest. He faced the Dodgers twice in 2009, winning in St Louis on July 28, getting no decision in LA on August 19. Career he’s 2-2, 3.13 against the Dodgers, but 1-1, 5.60 in the smog. Best Dodgers against him: Furcal (.438/.438/.563), Martin (.500/.563/.643), and Belliard (.400/.400/.700, HR). Dodgers as a team are .257/.297/.414 in 149 PA.

Kershaw: Left-handed pitcher working on regular rest (8-5, 3.13 in 30 starts on 4 days rest). Kershaw’s .3-4, 1.83 ERA at home this season. He’s not lost to the Cardinals (1-0, 1.82 ERA in 4 starts), and faced them twice this season, getting no decision in both starts (July 29 and August 19). Best Cardinal hitters against him are Holliday (.400/.571/.400), and AP (.571/.727/.857 – 4 for 7). Cardinals as a team are .216/.326/.257 in 88 PA.

Game 3: Vincente Padilla (4-0, 3.20 as a Dodger) vs Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.53).
Padilla: The Dodger Padilla more closely resembles the 2002 version as opposed to the Texas Ranger version. He’s 24-22, 4.56 career on 5 days rest. He did not face the Cardinals in 2009, and hasn’t started a game against St Louis since August 15 2003. That’s also the last time he faced them. The Cardinals have only 73 PA against him. AP is 4-9.

Pineiro: 31-25, 4.08 career on 5 days rest. Pineiro is 2-0, 3.38 career (3 starts) against the Dodgers, and 7-6, 2.87 this year at Busch. Joel beat the Dodgers in St Louis on July 27. Manny has owned him (.424/.560/.788, 4 HR), and Blake (.450/.476/.750, HR) likes his pitches too. As a team the Dodgers have hit .305/.340/.463 in 201 PA.

Game 4 (if needed): Chad Billingsley (12-11. 4.03) vs John Smoltz (3-8, 6.35)
Billingsley: Hasn’t pitched since September 29. On 6 or more days of rest, he’s 5-2, 3.76 in 8 starts. He’s 1-2, 4.40 in 6 games (5 starts) against St Louis, and was 1-1, 6.17 this season against the Cardinals. His loss came in St Louis on July 28. He’s never won in St Louis. Only Yadier is hitting over .300 off Billingsley, but Matt Holliday has hit 3 HR off Chad. Cardinals are .212/.330/.376 in 101 PA.

Smoltz: Consider this a strenuous vote for Smoltz to start Game 4 if LaRussa goes with 4 starters. I think the body of his playoff work, as well as his much better FIP this season, make him a better fit at this point. Smoltz did not face the Dodgers in 2009. Career he’s 16-14, 2.89 against LA, and 1-1, 3.12 ERA in 4 starts at Neo-Busch. Current Dodgers are hitting .268/.301/.401 in 169 PA; Thome has 4 HR and Hudson is 4-9 against him.


This should be a great series. I can’t wait – let’s START already!

Comeback Player of the Year and Roster moves

Chris Carpenter's outstanding season has been recognized by Major League Baseball with his selection as NL Comeback Player of the Year. Carp put aside all the questions about his health this season and won 17 games, led the majors in winning percentage (.810), and led the NL in ERA (2.24) and ERA+ (185).

Carp also had a 3.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio (144 K vs 38 BB), and allowed 7 home runs this season. Seven. The same number he allowed as a 22 year old rookie in half a season with Toronto. Braden Looper allowed five times that many.

Congratulations, Chris. I hope that's not the end of the post season awards for him.


The Cardinals are finalizing their post-season roster, and although some slots remain to be decided upon, the Post-Dispatch is reporting Khalil Greene has been left off the roster. Khalil did not have a good season by any measure, and would not have contributed much in the playoffs. It's curious he was replaced on the roster by Troy Glaus, who hasn't exactly lit it up either (.250 OBP? Two XBH in 32 PA?). A bench of Jason LaRue, Julio Lugo, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, and Troy Glaus won't strike fear in the hearts of Joe Torre, Charlie Manuel, and Jim Tracy. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have many other attractive options for the bench.

Thirteen position players leaves 12 pitchers. Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Smoltz, Franklin, Miller, Motte, McClellan, and Reyes are most likely locks to make the squad. That leaves Hawksworth, Boggs, Wellemeyer, and Thompson for the last two slots.

There's no good reason to include Wellemeyer on the roster. He has been awful this season both as a starter and a reliever. Hawksworth's been great, but he's also walked 15 hitters in 40 innings, which is not a good ratio for a reliever in the post-season. Boggs is a spot starter and long man, as is Thompson. So the question becomes Boggs or Thompson? Boggs' fastball topps out at about 93 MPH, and he has a 7.14 K/9 ratio. Thompson topps out at 88 MPH, and he has a 3.83 K/9 ratio.

If missing bats is important in the post-season, and current conventional wisdom says yes, Boggs will make the club. However LaRussa is loyal to his veterans, so I could see Thompson making the club too. I'll go with Boggs.

There'll be a series preview up tomorrow.