More Posturing

Well according to several sources, talks between the Cardinals and Matt Scott Holliday Boras are heating up. John Mozeliak confirmed tendering an offer for Holliday to Boras before departing Indianapolis last week, but terms weren't disclosed and nothing was heard from the Boras, er, Holliday camp.

Since historically Boras seemed to like conducting his negotiations in public, this lack of news was somewhat disconcerting. The lone leak reported Mo's contract offer didn't approach the $18 million per year the Rockies offered Holliday (which he subsequently rejected).

Late last night more news broke. Seemed the Cardinals and Boras have talked since the winter meetings broke up, and the Cardinals sweetened the pot a little. Holliday's contract offer is now reported to average about $16 million per. That doesn't approach the Teixiera-level money Boras set as a benchmark for this negotiations. Perhaps there are other considerations being made. The Post-Dispatch story talked about guaranteed money, an opt-out clause, and full no-trade protection as possible contract language to make the 'lower' figure more amenable to Holliday.*

*As an aside, is there really that big a difference between $16 million and $18 million a year? Would one's quality of life suffer terribly if compensated 11% less per year than one wanted?

Complicating matters is Jason Bay. Reports on ESPN indicate Mike Cameron has signed a 2-year deal to play for Boston. Which OF spot Cameron will mann remains to be seen; he is a gold-glove center fielder, but I hardly think Boston will shift Ellsbury to left and install Cameron in center. So pencil Cameron into the LF slot. That means Bay won't be returning to Boston. As the popular choice for second-best bat on the 2009 free agent market, where he goes will limit Holliday's options if he doesn't accept St Louis' offer.

All of this is cause for one to shake his head. Matt: you could do a lot worse than play baseball for $16 million a year. If you want to play in St Louis, take the deal. Work out the specific contract language you want, but take the money. If you don't want to spend a hot summer on the shores of Big Muddy, that's fine - just say so.

All this posturing is quite silly.

A quick final word on Ben Jukich. He was taken in the 13th round by Oakland in 2006. He hasn't pitched in the major leagues yet. He's spent the better part of 3 seasons at AAA.

Now on to the Off-Season

Now that the World Series is over, and the Yankees have won (bought?) the title, we can start the off-season personnel shuffles in earnest. For the Cardinal fan, this will be a VERY interesting period to say the least. Already there's been movement in baseball:

- Bobby Abreu signed a 2 year, $19M deal to stay in Southern California;
- the Red Sox traded for OF Jeremy Hermida;
- and the Royals may have shipped Mark Teahen to Chicago's south side for Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

There's also been movement on the Cardinal front:

- Jarrett Hoffpauir was claimed by the Blue Jays. Hoffpauir had made his ML debut in 2009, and projected as a 2B. Looks like the organization is sticking with Schumaker long-term, which meant Hoffpauir was blocked at his natural position.

- Brad Thompson released. The baby-faced kid is a Cardinal no more. Thompson, a soft-tossing righty, was thought to have a future in the rotation when he first came up in 2005, but it didn't pan out. His FIP was always over 4 at the ML level (best year - 2008, 4.17), and he allowed a ton of baserunners. The team had done well in his starts (19-9) before this season, but he got beat up quite a bit in 2009. When your roster spot is 'long mop-up guy', you're expendable - as evidenced by his frequent-flier status between St Louis and Memphis last season. But hey, he's got a World Series ring. Best of luck, Brad.

- Six file for free agency. This list includes the expected suspects - Holliday, Ankiel, DeRosa, K. Greene, LaRue, Smoltz, and Glaus. Most expect Wellemeyer and Pineiro to file as well. Of the seven already declared, Holliday, LaRue, and possibly DeRosa/Smoltz have a chance to return in 2010. DeRosa, Glaus, and Pineiro will be Type B free agents, meaning the Cardinals would get a supplemental first-round draft pick should they sign with another team. Holliday most likely will be a Type A free agent, bringing a first round AND a supplemental first-round pick should he go elsewhere.

Derrick Goold poses the question: Which guys will be offered arbitration? My thoughts:

Holliday: Definitely.
DeRosa: Will Freese be ready to start at 3B on Opening Day? Will Holliday return to play LF? Those are the positions DeRosa would man if he returns. Given the amount of money Holliday will command if he stays, and what it will likely take to resign Pujols, I say no.
Glaus: No. He's coming off injury, and the Cardinals can't afford him should he accept.
Pineiro: Yes, but only if Smoltz doesn't re-sign. Why not? Pineiro returning wouldn't be bad thing at all. He thrived under Duncan in 2009, and he would be a functional piece to the 2010 rotation. It would leave only 1 rotation spot for a rookie, scratching LaRussa's 'preference for veterans' itch and lowering the team's risk with said rookie.

With that, we can take a look at the current 40-man roster:

1. Boggs
2. Carpenter
3. Franklin
4. Garcia
5. Hawksworth
6. Kinney
7. Lohse
8. McClellan
9. T. Miller
10. Motte
11. Reyes
12. Wainwright
13. Walters
14. Wellemeyer (?)
15. Molina
16. Pagnozzi
17. Freese
18. Pineiro (?)
19. T. Greene
20. Lugo
21. Pujols
22. Ryan
23. Schumaker
24. Ludwick
25. Mather
26. Rasmus
27. Robinson
28. Stavinhoa

Wow, twelve and probably thirteen slots open on the roster. How should Mozeliak manage this?

Off the cuff, I would leave two slots open. That gives the team flexibility to re-sign some of their free-agents before the Rule V draft on 10 December. I've assumed they'll sign a back up catcher (LaRue or someone else), and one of their free agents (I'm guessing Smoltz) before the Winter Meetings start 7 Dec.

That means moving 10 players onto the 40-man roster. Well, Derrick Goold is currently polling Cardinal Nation to create a top 21 prospect list headed into 2010. Seems like a good place to start.

That vote has ranked 12 prospects (add John Jay and Adam Ottavino to the list at the above link). Some of them are already on the 40-man. Let's just add the remaining names that aren't. That makes the 40-man roster look like this:

29. Shelby Miller
30. Allen Craig
31. Daryl Jones
32. Eduardo Sanchez
33. Lance Lynn
34. Daniel Descalso
35. John Jay
36. Adam Ottavino

Just for fun, let's add a couple of prospects to fill out #37 and #38:

37. Tyler Henley
38. Pete Kozma

Thoughts? I'd be interested in hearing them in the comments.

Well... So Much For That

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.