What About a Four Man Rotation?

Brad Thompson getting suspended, while Guillermo Mota walks free, is an absolute farce. Hitting a guy up by 13 to protect your hitter is OK, but buzzing a guy up by 7 to protect your hitter isn't? Mota threw with intent, Thompson didn't.

Anyway, on one of the recent United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour shows, Pip from Fungoes raised the question of LaRussa going with a 4-man rotation. After all, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Mitchell Boggs haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. Well they have lit it up, just the wrong way - 10-15, 5+ ERA. Why not just skip that spot in the rotation?

This idea intrigued me.

Starting tomorrow, the Cardinals have 59 games left. With a 5-man rotation, that's 12 starts each for the first 4, and 11 for the #5 slot. With a 4-man rotation, that's 15 starts each for Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero, and 14 for Lohse.

There are a number of off-days between now and the end of the season - 6 to be exact. If they line up right, then the Cardinals could skip 6 starts by the #5 guy. This is good, right?

Well, it's not that good. The off days don't line up exactly like one would want:

6 Aug - Off day
6 games
13 Aug - Off day
10 games
24 Aug - Off day
6 games
31 Aug - Off day
9 games
10 Sept - Off day
6 games
17 Sept - Off day
6 games
24 Sept - Off day
10 games
End regular season.

CC Sabathia threw his last 4 games in 2008 on 3-days rest. Not everyone is CC Sabathia. I definitely don't think the Cardinals will try and pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest, given his medical history. I doubt they'll take that chance/accept that risk with Wainwright or Piniero.

So, if they try to keep them all on 4 days rest, the off-days don't help, and they'll have to use a #5 starter 9 times.

So LaRussa would save himself two starts from Wellemeyer's replacement.

Doesn't sound like its worth it. I like the idea of going with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, and Lohse, but it won't work in practice. Sorry, Pip.

Cardinals Roll into Chicago

One interesting thing that's surfaced so far this season is the Cardinals' tendency to 'get even' following a tough loss. After losing 6-4 on Opening Day, they punished the Pirates 9-3. After losing a tough game on Tuesday, they punished the Diamondbacks 12-7. It may just be coincidence, and it is only a 2-game sample, but there you go.

I've posted a preview of the Cubs/Cardinals series over at Cardinals Clubhouse. Here's the link. It says posted by Cardinal70, but that's because I encountered a problem getting the article to post and he was able to correct it. Constructive comments are always welcome; funny comments are appreciated; sarcastic comments will be ignored, and "I'll put your name down in me book".

Carpenter is on the 15 day DL. Early comments say he'll be out 4-8 weeks. Four to Eight Weeks?! Boy that screws up my head-to-head UCB league roster. Actually that's a joke; I have no power, 4 second baseman, and Manny Parra on that team. Last week I was 1-9. I should have named my team the 2008 San Diego Padre Reprise.

I've pulled a few muscles in my lifetime, but never one that required 2 months to heal. I guess this is a function of the violence imparted on the body by the act of throwing a baseball, but wow. Seems a bit long on the recovery progonstication. Makes me wonder if there's not something else going on there.

One mea culpa from yesterday. I asked the question why LaRue didn't hit for Brendan Ryan in yesterday's article. I missed the fact that Ryan Ludwick was also available to pinch hit in the ninth. There a couple of reasons for this; one, I thought I saw Ludwick's name in the box score, and two, somehow I was convinced the Cardinals were carrying 13 pitchers instead of 12, so when 11 players appeared in the box score the only guy left was the back-up catcher. If I had realized Ludwick was available, the question would have echoed what Derrick Goold wrote about yesterday.

I think LaRussa out-thought himself on this one. Ludwick is tearing the cover off the ball right now.

A Bad Day At Bank One

Some of our worst fears are realized - Chris Carpenter tantalizes us with a 7 inning masterpiece, and leaves his next start with an injury. Oh, boy.


Reports this morning indicate it's a left oblique strain and he will likely be headed to the disabled list. Not an arm injury. I'm not optimistic, or even cautiously optimistic, that's true, however; I seem to remember last September, when he left his last game against the Cubs, initial reports were a strained muscle in his back, which turned into another arm problem. All we can do at this point is wait.


Last night's game can be analyzed like a Clint Eastwood film of some note:


- The Good: Cardinals came back from two down in the ninth to tie the game at 6. Rasums, AP, and Thurston all had two hits and RBI in this game.


- The Bad: Carpenter's injury. Blew leads of 3-0 and 4-2. Got the go-ahead run to third with one out in the ninth and left him there (Ryan, Ankiel struck out). Thompson gave up the winning run in the 10th on only 8 pitches.


- The Ugly: Josh Kinney self-destructed in the 8th. Bullpen completely depleted after throwing 6 2/3 innings last night, with a 4-game series in Chicago looming.


I wonder - would Jason LaRue have been a better choice to hit against Qualls? He is 0-2 in 3 plate appearances (the other he was hit by pitch), whereas Ryan had struck out in his only other plate appearance against Qualls (and he struck out last night). I know, LaRue is the backup catcher, and we would have been in a bad way had Molina gotten hurt, but I think the experienced bat would have been a better choice in that situation. Totally Tuesday AM Quarterbacking, by the way. I'd be interested in other opinions on the subject.


Some interesting decisions loom for the Cardinals. Which pitcher comes up to replace Carpenter (early money is on Chris Perez and/or Mitchell Boggs)? Who starts the Sunday night game against Chicago - McClellan? Thompson? Someone else?


Not a good day.


Noon start today in the desert, before flying to the Windy City.

Carpenter Triumphant

Well I think I speak for everyone when I say that couldn't have gone any better.

I've been looking forward to Chris Carpenter's first start ever since it became clear his arm troubles were behind him this spring. Gone was the hesitation and the guarded, almost wistful, optimism the team (and he) put out during press conferences. Carp was throwing well during the spring, and although a concerted and correct effort was made to keep expectations realistic, it seemed he was back to his old self.

Carp's start was a topic of discussion during Wednesday's UCB radio show, and the consensus was 5-6 good innings would be great for his first one; anything beyond that was gravy.

Well, we're swimming in gravy today. Six and 2/3 no-hit ball? Are you kidding me?

In retrospect, I'm relieved he gave up that hit in the seventh. Think about it. This is Carpenter's first start since Sept of last year, and he's spent the better part of 2 years recovering from a variety of arm ailments. You know the Cardinals had him on a strict pitch count. However, LaRussa employs the warrior mentality; let his pitchers go out there and compete. I think it would have been very tough for him to pull Carp after seven, with his pitch count under 90 and a no-hitter going. Giving up the hit, and removing that drama from the game, made the decision to lift Carp much much easier. And it was the correct decision. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

That said, I was really glad the boys managed to push 2 runs across in the home half of the seventh, and set up Carp for the win. He certainly deserved the W based on the effort he gave. It also got AP off the hook for a rare throwing error that led to the Pirates' only run of the game.

An interesting sub-plot in this game is Reyes pitching the ninth. He retired the side in order. Since Motte had such difficulty in his first game, it begs the question if LaRussa will go with a closer by committee approach for a while. Franklin had only worked 2/3 of an inning going into yesterday, and 'protect the lead in the eighth' is his role, so that made sense. Reyes pitched on Tuesday in the blowout, so it may be a case of getting him some high leverage work. Or it could be as simple as McLouth and Hinske hit left handed, and LaRussa wanted to have Doumit hit from the right side (although career-wise all Doumit's power is from the right side, so to turn him around in a one-run game is an interesting decision). Doumit had never faced Reyes before yesterday.

So although I'd rather be 3-1, I'd certainly rather be 2-2 than 1-3.

Today the Houston Astros come to town for a 3-game set. Piniero vs Hampton today, then Wainwright vs Oswalt, and Lohse vs Wandy Rodriguez on Easter Sunday.

As we start the most important 3 days in the Christian calendar, a Happy Easter to you and yours. And remember, in less than 48 hours you can start doing all those things you've given up for the last 40 days. Just don't eat all 3 pounds of chocolate on Easter morning, ok? Let the kids have some of that dark chocolate bunny too...

More 'Roids, and Kennedy shown the door

Ya know, some days you spend watching the second hand sweep the clockface while wondering, 'MAN will this day ever end?', and some days you're up to your waist in activity.

Today is one of the latter days.

Since my last post:

1. A-Roid admitted to using steroids while with the Texas Rangers from 2001-2003, in an interview with Peter Gammons. This was not during the Canseco years (in fact, Jose was out of baseball by then).

2. The Cardinals told Kennedy, "Thanks, but we're better without you. In fact, we're so sure we're better without you, we'll pay you $4 million to NOT be on our squad."

So there will be an open competition for the second base job.

Most observers were pretty down on Kennedy's time in St Louis - good glove, no bat. He did hit better last season, but not like what some projected. Here's what I find interesting:

- LaRussa is being reported as being the major driver in this personnel decision.
- Apparently things between Kennedy and LaRussa were worse than reported or suspected. This partially explains his lack of playing time last year, and why he allowed some frustration to be reported in the media. Also, for a club complaining about not having the money to sign folks like Sheets, being willing to throw $4M out the window with no return on investment just to get rid of this guy is very telling.
- Three members of the 2002 Angels played for LaRussa - Eckstein, Edmonds, and Kennedy. They've each left the team (via free agency, trade, and designation for assignment, respectively) in successive years. In the name of rampant speculation, I wonder if there's an underlying reason for the pattern.

Things Didn't Work Out Like I Thought

Since I left off with the note about my oldest, here's the update. He had a viral infection all last week, there wasn't any medication he could take to fight it, and it eventually passed to his younger brother. But they are both over it now and recovering nicely.

With all that excitement, blogging became a secondary priority. I did manage to watch most of the Fri/Sat/Sun games against the Padres; the impression I took out of that 4-game sweep was (a) the Padres are a really bad club, (b) our bullpen isn't much better and was significantly overworked during the series, which shouldn't have been the case playing the worst team in the NL (and would bite us in the following series), and (c) those calling for another bat in the lineup don't know what they're talking about.

That brought us to the Milwaukee series, which I enjoyed from the comfort of my hotel room in Newport Rhode Island as I was on a business trip. It also meant I didn't enjoy it, rather, getting my news from ESPN in-game (when possible) and either the web/SportsCenter the following day. Some belated thoughts on that:

Game 1 - loss 6-3 in 10 innings - in fairness, that loss rests on the offense. Yes, Franklin did give up 3 runs in the tenth inning, but the lineup managed only 2 runs through 8 innings. AP did have a chance to win it in the ninth with runners on second and third, and popped to shallow CF. A little more timely hitting there and we win Game 1.

Game 2 - loss 4-3 allowing runs in the seventh, eighth, AND ninth - squarely on La Russa. Lohse should have been pulled in the eighth when he ran into trouble. I don't necessarily disagree with the decision to have Lohse start the eighth, but he shouldn't have finished it. In fairness to Tony, his hands were tied by the sheer amount of work his bullpen shouldered in the preceeding 5 games, but dude. Lohse was gassed. Send someone else out there. Viva El Birdos wrote a post about how La Russa handles his aces, perhaps with a romantic rememberence of the good old days where starters could throw 15 innings if needed, and I wonder if that clouded his judgment here. Should have won this game.

Game 3 - lose 3-0. Sabathia no-hits the lads for 5 and 2/3. Not much else to say.

Game 4 - lose 4-3. Another bullpen hairball, another game they should have won.

Also, LaRussa got a little testy after game 2 when asked about his bullpen, saying essentially it's the offense's fault for not scoring enough runs. Fair enough; but Tony, you must admit that the back end of your bullpen is a mess (and still is, BTW).

So off to NY. They got pounded Friday 7-2; I saw no part of this game, as I was in the air to St Louis (yeay!) to spend 42 hours with my Mom, Bro, and Sis (and her family), and extended family as well. Glad to miss this one.

Saturday they won 10-8 in 14 innings. I managed to turn the game on in time to see Tatis homer off Franklin. We were then treated to the Kelvin Jimenez High Wire Act. How the Mets managed to get 2 hits and 5 walks off him but not score in the 11th or 12th inning is a mystery. Although getting the last out in each inning on a comebacker is probably the reason (and those were two miserable at bats).

Saturday was also the day the Anthony Reyes Death Watch ended, with the team dealing him to Cleveland for a minor-leaguer. It speaks volumes about what LaRussa thought of Reyes that Jimenez (who can't consistently throw it over the plate), Randy Flores (same problem), Ron Villone (he's a lefty who's bounced around for 15 years, so he must be good), Mitchell Boggs (ERA of 6+, clearly not ready for the majors), and Mike Parisi were all adjudged better options than Reyes. Whatever. Reyes got jobbed in St Louis and I'm glad he's moved on to an organization where he can start over. I hope Reyes makes it back to the Majors with the Indians and becomes an 18-game winner. I also secretly hope that in his first start against LaRussa's Cardinals, he throws a complete game 2-hit shutout, and after every half-inning he walks off the mound while staring into the Cardinal dugout.

Sunday lost to Santana (ho hum), and have torched the Braves so far this week.

So the moral of this story is I'm not allowed to travel on business. I leave for 7 days and they lose 6 0f 7; I'm back in SD and they've won 2 in a row (it does help they're playing Atlanta, who gave up yesterday with the Teixiera deal).

One thing to think about as I get back to real work (and larry at VEB mentioned it yesterday) - why have we returned to Izzy as closer? I completely agree with Franklin returning to the setup role; he did save 14 games, but of late he's been a disaster in the ninth. But Izzy hasn't been much better. Why not have McClellan, who's been their best and most consistent reliever this season, take a turn at the back of the game? Isn't the goal here to get people out? More analysis later.

I'm Right, but Not Really

Well he didn't toss a 2-hit shutout, but Joel Piniero did acquit him self well, working 5 innings and allowing only 2 ER. Giving up a HR to Bronson Arroyo is a little bit disconcerting, but whatever.

Piniero was quoted in the Post Dispatch as saying his body didn't feel 100%. No kidding, really? I'm shocked to read that.

Cardinals had a look at the game until the seventh when the bullpen blew up. Flores walking Griffey to force in a run and then giving up a bases-clearing triple to Brandon Phillips summarily ended the game. It also allows me to wallow in the second-guess mud hole again. If Phillips kills left-handed pitching, why o why was Flores left in there to face him? Granted, if he could have gotten the light-hitting Jarish out instead of walking him in front of Griffey none of this happens, but still.

In other news, Adam Kennedy is not happy about his playing time being cut down in favor of Aaron Miles/Brendan Ryan. It was reported that he met with LaRussa about his playing time, but there probably won't be any substantive changes coming out of that meeting. LaRussa manages a certain way, and Miles is (for whatever reason) his guy. I thought the last line of the article was telling:

I think with Brendan and Aaron it’s not that big of a difference," La Russa
said. "Adam has always been a core guy, so it’s more of an adjustment for him. I think he can handle it. When he plays, he needs to play his tail
off." (emphasis mine)

Wow. I guess there's a perceived 'lack of effort' issue there. I'll throw it to my limited audience - has there been any instances of Kennedy not playing hard during the first part of this season? Because I can't remember any.

So they come home to play the Phillies for 3. Philadelphia is the other really good NL team right now (with our Cards and the Cubs). Should be interesting without AP anchoring the lineup against a good team.

As for the Padre game, it wasn't much of a game. Peavy gave up a leadoff hit, then retired the side in the first; the Padre home half of the inning went single, single, 3-R bomb from Giles, solo shot from Adrain Gonzalez (the opposite way; man is that guy strong), and the rout was on. 9-0 Padres.

The most interesting thing that happened was in the top of the third. A foul pop was hit down the third base line, and in trying to get out of the way, the security guard actually ran to the spot and got hit by the ball. Calls to have him escorted out of the game for interfering with a ball in play went unacknowledged.

Cardinals Win; Pujols Sidelined

I'm minding the store for my boss this week, as he is on travel, so this will have to be brief. Cardinals won last night in Cincinnati 7-2. The big news should have been Mitchell Boggs' first ML win, but instead it's AP's strained calf.

I saw the replay of him running out of the box on ESPN.com this morning; I wouldn't characterize it as 'pretty bad,' as Mozeliak said, but it certainly won't be something that he bounces back from before this weekend.

If he does have to go on the DL, what a crappy way to start the week - first Wainwright with his finger, now AP and his calf. I can't help but wonder, based on AP sitting most of the Washington series out last week with the calf, if he didn't rush himself back into the lineup too soon and do more damage.

And Rolen's calf injury in Sept 2004 immediately leapt to mind as I watched that replay. Rolen sat most of that month with the injury and (other than a superlative effort in the LCS against Houston, which was mostly driven by anger against LaRussa) wasn't himself the rest of that season.

Yikes. Keep a good thought.

Larry over at Vivaelbirdos has a great article on Wainwright's finger prognosis, which I won't try and top here; it's worth the read if you haven't seen it yet.

One final thought - the Cardinals announced Piniero will start tomorrow against Cincinnati, as he comes off the DL after a groin injury. I can't help but think this is a case of LaRussa hard-headedness and Piniero is going out there too soon after the injury. Here's why. As you know, I play a little softball in my spare time. About 5 years ago I strained my groin going after a fly ball in RC (which approximates how Piniero strained his). I sat out the rest of that game because I couldn't push off with my left leg; it took me a month to feel like I could run again comfortably, and another two weeks before I was willing to test it running full speed.

Clearly, although I'm in reasonable shape, I'm not a professional athlete in prime physical condition with access to virtually unlimited resources for medical care and rehabilitation. However, I play the outfield, where the action is somewhat sparse. I was playing 2-3 times a week at that point, and ended up not playing for almost a month. Piniero is a pitcher, at the center of each and every play in the game, and he's only been sidelined 3 weeks. He's going to put a lot more stress on that muscle immediately, and if it's a little bit tender he's going to damage it again.

Wouldn't Reyes be a better option in the short-term to protect Piniero long-term? Is LaRussa's anti-Anthony stance blinded him to his options here? If Reyes is considered that low of a prospect at this point, maybe the Cardinals would be better off DFA-ing him and moving on.

(When Piniero throws a 2-hit shutout today forget we had this conversation)

More Pitching Staff Follies

You want a definition for multi-tasking? Here's one:

- Playing with two highly energetic kids under the age of 2
- Watching Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals (why? Because if Detroit wins, they present the Cup)
- Monitoring the Cardinals/Pirates game

The highly energetic (also known as the Not-So-Gentle-Folk, and hereafter dubbed NSGF) refused to go to bed at a reasonable hour, so the multi-tasking continued deep into the night; in fact, my oldest finally gave up and went to bed just before the double minor penalty was called on Detroit in the third OT.

For most of this, the Cardinals led 4-0. At least, that was the score in the second, sixth, and seventh innings. I flip the TV over to ESPN to catch the end of the Yanks/Twins game (Nathan is my fantasy guy, remember), and across the bottom of the screen crawls this score:

Pirates 5, Cardinals 4.

What the hell?

At first, I thought the bullpen blew up again. Then I figure out that Wainwright was saddled with the loss. It looked like he was cruising! So I check the box score on sportsline.com: Wainwright gave up 4 in the seventh and 1 in the eighth. Nuts.

But that's not the disturbing part. Apparently, at least to the wire report sportsline carries, Wainwright tired in the sixth inning, although he worked out of a jam. LaRussa sent him back out there for the seventh, where he gave up double-walk-walk before the game tying Grand Slam. Smells like LaRussa had a gassed bullpen AGAIN.

So let's look at their usage since 5/27 to see who was available:

Perez: 5/28: 1 inning (11 pitches) , 5/29: 2/3 (9). AVAILABLE (and in fact, pitched the ninth last night).
McClellan: 5/29: 1 (10), 5/31: 1 (17), 6/1: 1 1/3 (18). NOT AVAILABLE.
Flores: 5/30: 2/3 (16), 6/1: 1/3 (4). AVAILABLE.
Franklin: 5/29: 1 (10), 5/30: 1/3 (10), 1 (17). AVAILABLE to close only.
Jimenez: 5/31: 3 1/3 (67). NOT AVAILABLE.
Villone: 5/29: 1/3 (8), 5/30: 1/3 (3), 5/31: 1 (34). NOT AVAILABLE.
Springer: 5/30: 1/3 (8), 5/31: 1 (6). AVAILABLE.

Two conclusions here. One: Parisi's clunker on Saturday stressed the bullpen so much that 29% of it wasn't available last night. Two: LaRussa had more options than just Perez available to him last night. This comment is made without a detailed review of where they were in the batting order, what hands the hitters are, relative success levels against the pitchers in his bullpen, but wouldn't you think Flores could have pitched the seventh and Springer the eighth? Or Perez one of those innings and Franklin the ninth? Or something like that?

With the Cubs playing as well as they are (eight in a row now), these Cardinals can't afford to give away games. And LaRussa does have a propensity to stick a little too long with his aces; as I've stated before, he's done it with Carpenter on numerous occasions over the past 3 years.

Frustrating.

POSTSCRIPT: Jimmy E is in town with the Cubs right now. Last night: 2/4, 2 doubles, 2 RBI. He's hitting over .200 (which is awful, but given where he started, is a positive step). He now plays on a team I don't have a lot of love for, but Jim Edmonds remains one of my favorite players, so I'm glad to see him start doing well. Also, there was an interesting interview of him on XX 1090 AM (local radio) this morning; he clearly doesn't like talking about his Padre experience, although he (at least, according to the shock jock Scott on the radio's interpretation which I kind of agree with) took a veiled shot at the San Diego clubhouse with his last comments to the interviewer.

Was Villone the best option?

It sucks when you fight back from an initial 2-0 deficit to tie the game in the eighth, then lose in extra innings. I didn't realize that Villone was the guy tagged for 4 ER in the 10th until seeing the highlights (lowlights?) on ESPN.

Which got me thinking: Was he really the best option at that point in the game?

LaRussa famously remarked about Braden Looper's 6 May start, that Loop needed to go deep into the game, because the bullpen was gassed. Why the bullpen was gassed given the excellent April our starters had is a whole other discussion; but I figured that was a good point to start from when looking at bullpen loading leading up to last night's game.

Here's the usage graphic:

If that were at all legible you'd see what I mean.

What it does show is that Villone had only been used one time in the previous 7 games, thrown 5 pitches, and not gotten anyone out. It also shows that Parisi wasn't available for extended duty, and that Izzy and Flores probably could have gotten one guy out. McClellan, however, was fully rested. Franklin and Springer had already been used.

Lets look at the lineup Villone faced. He started with the top of the order (Sanchez). Sanchez is right handed. In fact, other than McClouth (hitting behind Sanchez), LaRoche (hitting seventh), and Mienkiewicz (isn't there a 't' in there somewhere) hitting ninth, the lineup was right handed, and Villone wouldn't face 2/3 of the lefties until the bases were loaded and 2 out (assuming no runs had scored).

So why throw him in there? Even if you want to use him there due to his lack of work, why leave him in to face the 3-4-5 hitters, all right handed, after McCouth sacrificed Sanchez to second?

Why not bring in McClellan?

I don't understand the logic there. Why save McClellan for a protracted extra inning game when the game was on the line there?