John Smoltz the second coming of Christ?

Smoltz's numbers since returning to the National League are somewhat ridiculous:

7 hits, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts, 1 run, 0.82 ERA in 11 innings pitched. These are Cliff Lee with the Philadelphia Phillies-sized numbers.

Before we start falling all over ourselves trying to slap each other on the back, and fund public works projects to erect statues and archways in celebration of his magnificence, let's remember that Smoltz has worked these miracles against the Padres and Nationals.

You know, two of the 3 worst teams in the NL.

I'd be much more inclined to drink the Kool Aid if he had performed these feats against the Dodgers and Marlins, for example.

I'm not saying to discount what he's done; but let's be cautious out there.

Series Preview - Washington

Did you know the Red Sox released Chris Duncan? They did, on 20 August. I didn't know it until yesterday, either.

Maybe that's why Dave Duncan took a personal day earlier this week.

Anywho, here's the series preview on the Nationals.

The Cardinals welcome the Nationals to town for their annual visit.

Mostly well-known tidbit: Washington used to be the Montreal Expos, but wherever this franchise plays they give the Cardinals fits. Since 1985, St Louis is 139-136 against them (including this season). The only NL teams causing more heartburn amongst Cardinal fans are Colorado (73-74), Atlanta (115-119), and the Mets (130-151). All three of those teams have been to at least one World Series in the period selected. The Expo/National franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 1981. In other words, I can’t figure out why the Nationals give St Louis so much trouble.

On a positive note, the Cardinals took 3 of the 4 games in DC this season.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 74-55, 1st in NL Central, 9 games ahead of Chicago (7 on the loss side). Cardinals have won 11 of their last 14, including 2 of 3 from Houston to start this homestand. Assuming they play .500 the rest of the way (17-16), they’ll win 91 games. Chicago would need to go 29-8 just to catch the Cardinals. It’s prudent to not say the divisional race is over, but, if I were the Cubs I wouldn’t be planning to print playoff tickets for 2009.

Washington: 46-82, last in NL East, 28.5 games back of Philadelphia. They are on pace to lose 104 games, but have played better since Manny Acta was fired (20-21 under Jim Riggleman) and they just took 2 of 3 from the Cubs. They are 14-11 in August.

Key Nationals

Adam Dunn. Leads the league in walks. 34 HR puts him 5th in the NL, and a .995 OPS is 4th. He’s a horrible defensive outfielder (-20.7 UZR), but he’s still been worth 2.1 WAR this season. Bats cleanup.

Ryan Zimmerman. Check out this item over at fangraphs. He was the 4th pick in the 2005 draft and hasn’t disappointed. Hits third.

Nyjer Morgan. He has really flourished since coming over from the Pirates in early July, reaching base almost 40% of the time and swiping bases at a 77% success rate. He’s been a 5 WAR player this season, and you’ve probably not heard much else about him.

Mike MacDougal. Closer, and has 14 saves with a 1.98 ERA. He has a high walk rate, his SO/BB ratio is 1.0, and his FIP is 4.51 (his career average is 3.99). Only Joe Beimel and Julian Tavarez have a better mark among Nationals relievers. He is allowing 1.48 runners per inning, which is a bit high for a back of the game reliever.

Pitching match-ups

28 August: Smoltz vs John Lannan (8-9, 4.03). Lannan is listed as the Nationals ace on Baseball Reference. He has a 4.72 FIP in 160 innings this season. Lannan features a high-80s fastball he throws 2/3 of the time, and a smattering of off-speed pitches he throws about evenly (slider, curveball, changeup). Looks like his changeup might be his best pitch, but he only throws it about 10% of the time. He’s 0-2 career against St Louis, but based on his ERA (2.84) he’s pitched well in those games.

Smoltz looked fantastic against the Padres on Sunday. I don’t know what to expect; that Smoltz or the 2009 Red Sox Smoltz. We’ll hope he doesn’t revert to his Red Sox form.

29 August: Boggs vs Craig Stammen (4-6, 5.08). This is Stammen’s first year in the bigs, and Saturday will be the righthander’s first start against St Louis. Stammen is a fastball/curveball guy; his fastball averages 89 mph, his curveball 79. He carries a respectable .283 BABIP, and he strikes out slightly twice as many as he walks. He also averages 3 ground ball outs for every 2 fly ball outs he surrenders. He’s given up 13 HR in 101 innings, so that’s something to watch for. He hasn’t pitched especially well in august (.300 average against, 7.25 ERA), but he did win his last start against Milwaukee.

Mitchell Boggs returns to the rotation thanks to Lohse’s injury. He lost his last start in LA on 18 August. He has one start against the Nationals, going 6, surrendering 4 runs, and getting a no decision on 30 April (Cardinals won 9-4).

30 August: Wainwright vs Garrett Mock (3-5, 5.23). Mock was inserted into the Nationals starting rotation on 19 July, and he is 3-3 with a 4.69 ERA since transitioning from the bullpen. Like Lannan, he features a fastball (averaging just a tick under 92 MPH) 2/3 of the time, and throws a slider, changeup, or curveball at almost equal frequency (between 10-15% of his pitches). The righthander has never faced the Cardinals.

Wainwright just keeps rolling along. He’ll go for the major league lead in wins on Sunday. I know most prognosticators predict/expect Tim Lincecum to win the CY Young, and he has had an outstanding year; but Wainwright should get some serious consideration.

Statistical Oddity. Wainwright has thrown 11 consecutive starts allowing 2 or fewer runs. If he continues that Sunday, it will be the longest streak since Gibson’s in 1968. It is the longest streak by a Cardinal since 2002, when Andy Benes did it (July 16 to September 12).

Prognosis/prediction. Cardinals are at home facing two pitchers for the first time, and they’re in a bit of a funk offensively. They should win Sunday, probably will win Friday, and might win Saturday. This would be a good series for the bats to come back to life, so we’ll predict they take 2 of 3 from the Nationals.

Go Cards!

AFTERMATH - Annual Trek to Petco

Oh man, a lot has happened since my last post. We'll stick to Sunday's game, but first some background.

I returned from a business trip last Thursday to find . . . my Mom waiting for me at the airport. This might seem normal until I tell you she lives 1500 miles from me. But that was just the beginning. Several other members of my extended family had also flown in.

Seems my wife had planned a big shindig to celebrate a milestone birthday of mine. Never mind which milestone birthday that is.

Anywho, she had told me we had tickets to Sunday's game at Petco, as I mentioned. She never told me where we were sitting, however.

I wrote last week that if readers of this blog were at that game and saw a guy walking around the ballpark in a Taguchi jersey, to say hello because it was me. Well you may have seen a guy walking around in a red Taguchi t-shirt, but that wasn't me (I have a white home jersey with his name on the back), because my wife...

...had purchased a luxury suite for the occasion. And filled it with friends and family.

Needless to say, I made it to the railing in the suite and no further.

There are pictures - oh, there are pictures - but they're on a different computer and I haven't had a chance to peruse them fully. I'll probably post them at some other time. Some thoughts on the game, if you care to go back in time four days:

Item: They have pre-printed scorecards in these suites. Complete with the starting lineup filled in and all traditional statistics included (AVG, HR, RBI). On the back of the sheet media information was listed (who's hot, head-to-head record between the two, 'this date in Padres history'), and so on. Here's a good statistic: the Padres are 71-141 all time in St Louis.

Item (Part 1): There was a left over score sheet from TUESDAY's game against the Cubs in the suite. Remember, we were there on Sunday - 5 days later. Do the Padres suffer from 'inattention to detail' syndrome? More on this later.

Item: After the Cardinals acquired John Smoltz, and it became evident he'd start this game, I was looking forward to seeing him pitch, if for no other reason than I would have an in-person seat to evaluate him. Some of my relatives are dyed-in-the-wool Red Sox Fans (including my Mother, which made Christmas 2004 an interesting event). As you might expect, no opportunity to heckle was lost by these folks:

"Hey Mike, over/under on how many innings Smoltz throws today is 3."
"Second time through the lineup he'll get lit up."
"If he was facing the Orioles, they'd have knocked him out by now." This was after he had stuck out the seven consecutive hitters.
"Wow, National League baseball. Wow."

For my zealous relatives:
- The NL might be a weaker league right now, but please don't form an opinion on the caliber of play in the league based on watching the PADRES play.
- I thought the Red Sox led the world in savvy employees looking for any edge, including color of contact lenses and length of chest hair; so if Smoltz was tipping his pitches, how did they not see it?

Item (Part 2): Around the sixth inning, the Padre staff stopped by with a birthday gift and cake (which was a Nestle Tollhouse Cookie Ice Cream Bar, one of the many reasons Western Civilization rocks). The gift bag included a Padres pin (with Most Valuable Padre written on it, a nice touch for the Padre fan), a 'Padres beisbol' shirt with the word Padres covering South America (actually, a pretty cool shirt), and:

A Khalil Greene hat. I am not kidding. I burst out laughing.

This is funny mainly for two reasons. Obviously, one is that Greene's a Cardinal now, and I'm a Cardinal fan. I doubt the Padres staff was clever enough to give me a hat featuring a Padre who is now a Cardinal just because I am a Cardinal fan The other is there are Padres fans out there getting gift bags that also contain a Greene hat. Can you imagine being a die-hard Padre fan (assuming they exist) and receiving that? "Hey, guy, thanks for spending your special day with the San Diego Padres. Here's a memento for you: some merchandise bearing the likeness of a guy who was pretty popular but we got rid of because we can't afford to pay him, and now we're stuck with all this crap we can't sell. But we hope YOU like it. Go Padres!"

Yes, the Padres suffer from 'inattention to detail' syndrome.

Item: I was in the loo when Jason Motte took the hill. Good thing, too, because I missed his gopher ball to Hundley, and therefore was not tempted to scream at the top of my lungs the first curse word that came to mind. Which I'm pretty sure would rhyme with some variation of duck.

Item: Eleven pitchers makes for a very loooong game.

Item: John Smoltz had never struck out seven in a row. I saw that. I also saw AP hit his 40th HR. Not often you get to see that.

Item: Sunday was Padre backpack day, and a free Padres backpack was given to every kid 14 and under. We had made the decision to get a babysitter for our kids, so they didn't go to the game, but my wife was determined to get each of them a backpack. Only 27,435 people attended this event, so you know there were extra backpacks lying around. After protracted negotiations with the Padres staffers administering the suite for us, we finally received the backpacks. My thanks to Mark and Natalie for their efforts on our behalf.

And, the backpacks hold about 10 beers each.

Item: This suite was all you can eat. Hot Dogs, chicken tenders, well made bean dip lavished with extras like sour cream and olives, cookies, fudge, peanuts, crackerjacks, and so on. It also had a fridge stocked with Budweiser/Bud Light/Coors Light/Miller Lite, water, and soda. We paid for all the drinks as part of the suite price, but there was so much we couldn't hope to drink it all. We did give it the old college try, however.

Because we paid for them up front, we wanted to take the leftovers with us. Within reason, of course; we didn't shove bottles of beer down our pants or anything like that. So we put the kids backpacks to good use. All Coors Light was left behind, but a healthy sample of the rest came home with us. Good Times.


Ryan Franklin made the ninth inning more exciting than it needed to be, and I am thankful Oscar Salazar swung through a 3-2 fastball that was belt high right over the plate with the bases loaded and one out. But Franklin worked through it and finished the game. 5-2 Cardinals.

A fun day and a great day.

The only problem is the same milestone birthday for my wife is coming up soon. Now I have to top this. I am taking suggestions....

One more thing: apparently this was Brian Giles' suite. I can't imagine why he's not using it right now.

Annual Trek to Petco

Cardinals have just wrapped up a 5-1 victory over the Padres, with Pineiro fanning 7. Seven!

As this weekend marks the annual Cardinal appearance in San Diego, and just like the sparrows returning to San Juan Capistrano. your humble author will make his annual foray into the stands of PETCO. This year it will be Sunday's game, which will also afford me the opportunity to watch John Smoltz make his debut as a Cardinal.

I won't give out my seat location here, but, I will be wearing my mega-cool So Taguchi #99 jersey. Because any part-time fan can wear Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter. I doubt there will be a lot of people wearing Taguchi jersey's Sunday, so if you see one walk by say hello.

Series Preview - San Diego

Didn’t we just play these guys? You gotta love the scheduler. Cardinals don’t play San Diego for over 100 games, then play them seven times in 10 days.

Cardinals miss Mat Latos, but see Kevin Correia and Carillo in the series. Those previews are up front. With minor edits, the rest of the preview is recycled from last weekend.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 69-53, 1st NL Central, 6 games ahead of Chicago. St Louis is rolling, having won 10 of 12.

San Diego: 51-70, last in NL West, 20 games behind Los Angeles. San Diego rebounded from getting swept in St Louis to take 2 of 3 from the Cubs.

Pitching Matchups

20 August: Pineiro vs Tim Stauffer (1-5, 3.50). This is a rematch of last Saturday’s game. Stauffer kept the Padres in it, although he got the loss; if not for Molina picking off Venable to end the seventh, the result might have been different. Piniero labored through the first two innings, then pitched great for 4 2/3 before leaving with a 3 run lead in the seventh.

21 August: Lohse vs Clayton Richard (6-3, 4.66). Rematch of Sunday’s rain elongated game. Neither pitcher performed particularly well; Richard didn’t survive the fourth, Lohse the fifth. Richard will pitch better at PETCO, a pitcher’s park. Hopefully Lohse will rise to the challenge.

22 August: Carpenter vs Kevin Correia (8-9, 4.32). Saturday night’s game will be the marquee matchup of the series. Carpenter has been dominant, winning his last 8 decisions (it would have been 9 in a row had the bullpen not blown his game in Houston), and has to be considered in any NL Cy Young discussion. After not looking sharp the first 2 innings, Carp settled down and worked 8 in his victory Monday against the Dodgers.

Correia throws a fastball/slider 85% of the time. Correia beat the Brewers last week, and got a no decision on Monday after throwing six shutout innings at the Cubs. Don’t let his high ERA fool you. Since getting lit up by the Phillies on 23 July, the Padres are 4-1 in his starts and he sports a 2.37 ERA. He signed for $750K and has pitched like a $7.4M guy (according to fangraphs.com).

23 August: John Smoltz (2-5, 8.32) vs Cesar Carrillo (1-1, 11.88). The Media is speculating Smoltz will start this game. Since LaRussa/Duncan didn’t exactly give Boggs a ringing endorsement following last night’s game, let’s go with it. Everyone reading this is acquainted with Smoltz’s struggles this season. Here’s some data to make you happy:

Smoltz is 16-8 with a 2.55 ERA career against the Padres.
Smoltz is 2-0 with a 0.37 ERA in 5 career games at PETCO.
Smoltz has won his last 4 starts against the Padres, gone at least 7 in all of them, and given up 6 ER in his last 30 IP against San Diego.
Adrian Gonzalez is 2-12 (with a HR) against Smoltz in his career.

Note that Smoltz hasn’t faced the Padres since 2007, and hasn’t pitched at PETCO since 2006.

Carrillo got absolutely hammered by the Brewers last week, giving up 9 ER in 2 1/3 and one of the longest HR Prince Fielder has ever hit. He was better against the Cubs, working 6 and giving up 3 ER. His two starts indicate he walks a lot of people (6 in 8 1/3). Fastball/curveball/change comprise 98% of his pitches, and he has a heavy fastball (93.7 MPH average).

Key Padres

Adrian Gonzalez. Easily the best hitter in baseball getting no notoriety at all nationally. This is a function of the lousy team he currently plays for, and their location. People don’t come to San Diego to watch the Padres, even when they don’t suck. Gonzo reduced Miller Park to a smoking pile of rubble while going 10-16 with 3 doubles, a home run, and 6 RBI in the recently completed series. Suffice it to day the Brewers pitchers are happy to see him leave. He is now the first Padre ever to hit 30 home runs in 3 straight seasons. He can hurt you at any time. Although my fantasy team will cry foul, there is no reason to pitch to him with runners in scoring position in this series.

Heath Bell. Closer. Leads the NL in saves with 29. 51 K in 46 and a third. K/BB ratio of 3.19. He’s pretty good.

David Eckstein. You remember him? Clubhouse leader for the Padres. Brings all those lovely intangibles to the table, and is still (a) fairly clutch with the bat, and (b) is a mean bunter.

Mike Adams. Set-up guy. Filthy. 30 K in 25 IP, K/BB ratio of 6.00. And you’ve never heard of him.

Anthony Gwynn, Jr. Full name used so as to not confuse him with his rather well-known dad. Gwynn was acquired in a mid-season trade with the Brewers, and has been average at the plate (105 OPS+) and good in CF (5.7 UZR). He’s been worth 1.8 WAR, and he hits leadoff for this team.

Everth Cabrera/William Venable/Kyle Blanks. Much like the Pirates, the Padres have mixed and matched a lot this season. These 3 guys represent the youth movement on the team, and they have played well. Cabrera has great speed and the best arm on the club, at least among position players. He plays shortstop. Venable has been hot in August (hitting .351), and has homered in 6 of his last 12 games. He currently mans RF. Kyle Blanks is a work in progress, but he has ridiculous power. I mean Willy Mo Pena/Dave Kingman sized power. He typically plays left.

Chase Headley. Chase has been something of a disappointment to the Padres. He was a can’t miss prospect the fans begged Kevin Towers to call up early in 2008, but hasn’t hit like everyone thought. However, over his last 14 games the light seems to have gone on. He’s hitting a tick under .400 (.396), and is reaching base in almost half his plate appearances. He’s currently hitting 4th in the Padre order. He has power, but hasn’t displayed it consistently at the major league level. During this current streak, he has 5 doubles, a triple, and no homers.

Prognosis/Prediction. St Louis should win the games Pineiro and Carpenter start. Richard is a future ace, and will pitch better this time around; perhaps Lohse will too. Carrillo threw well in his only start in San Diego (the Cubs game), and we really have no idea what to expect from Smoltz. I’m hoping for someone better than he has been this year, but not close to as good as his 2007 self. I’ll be happy with a split here.

Cardinals Sign Smoltz

Multiple sources are confirming John Smoltz, who cleared waivers yesterday, signed a one-year deal for the league minimum to play for the Cardinals.

I will discuss this more tonight on the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour, but for now some thoughts, and those thoughts are mixed.

One mind says this is a move to shore up the bullpen. Smoltz is the only pitcher with 200 wins and 150 saves, so he is capable in relief. He's also right-handed, and the Cardinals right handed relief has been a roller coaster ride this year (McClellan, Motte, et al). However, Smoltz has appeared in relief only once since the end of the 2004 season, and that was his first appearance in 2008 after coming off the DL. So I don't think he was signed to shore up the bullpen.

The other mind says he's signed to start. Supporting this is Smoltz' own preference to start, and the fact he refused a minor league assignment with the Red Sox to convert to a relief pitcher. At his best, Smoltz is a borderline HOF-er as a starter, and as recently as 2007 he made 32 starts and threw 205+ innings. Given the mostly poor quality starts the Cardinals have gotten out of Lohse/Wellemeyer/Thompson/Boggs, Smoltz could help.

Making me wince is Smoltz getting torched as a Red Sox starter (2-5, 8.32, 1.700 WHIP). Reports following his dismantling at the hands of the Yankees indicated he only has one ML pitch right now - a slider - and is wild in the strike zone. I know a lot of 'smart boys' point out the NL is the weaker league, that Matt Holliday has thrived since returning to the NL, and that Smoltz could recover just as nicely. I guess we'll see.

Cardinals 7, Padres 5

The Cardianls flat-out stole that game.

What an ugly day for St Louis. It started with Ryan getting picked off first. Then the blown suicide squeeze, which was a QUESTIONABLE decision by LaRussa at best. Then AP not hustling out of the box and getting cut down on the basepaths after knocking in the tying run. And they left 6 on through 4 innings against Richard, which would have been more if not for the aforementioned baserunning nonsense).

I wonder if the rains helped.

Lohse didn't have it. If he can't get it together against the Padres (even a Padres team that came in hot), we should all be concerned.

Most Sundays I won't get a chance to watch an afternoon game, because that's family time. So I taped it, then got the bright idea of trying to watch it anyway. Not the best decision I've ever made. However, I managed to get through the tape. When it ended I flipped the TIVO to 'Live TV'. Lo and behold, the game was still on! So I got to watch Molina drive in the tying run, and then Rasmus' bomb to win it.

Wow. For as poorly as they played, they never stopped battling and pulled it out. There's an old adage that says, you're going to win 40 and lose 40; it's the other 80 games that determine your season. This should have been one of the 40 they lost.

The fact they won is more evidence they have something special building in St Louis for 2009.

Series Preview - Dodgers

The team’s last regular-season West Coast swing is this week, starting with 3 against the Dodgers. Cardinals took 3 of 4 from LA in St Louis this season.

Mostly well-known tidbit: The Cardinals are 76-80 against the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine since 1977. Which is odd, since I’m sure I’ve seen at a least 20 of those losses; I thought it was much worse.

Trivia Time: What happened on 28 August, 1977?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 67-52, 1st NL Central, 5 games ahead of Chicago. Cardinals have won 8 of 9, and flat out stole Sunday’s game from the Padres (despite some horrendous baserunning).

Los Angeles: 70-48, 1st NL West, 5 games ahead of Colorado. Things have gotten more interesting for the Dodgers since we last left them. Colorado has continued to play solid baseball, while the Dodgers have scuffled. They now sport a 5 game lead (down from 9 up on 25 July) and have lost 13 of 20. They hold the second best record in the NL to San Francisco.

Pitching Matchups:
17 August: Carpenter vs Charlie Haeger (0-0, 1.50). As I write this, the Cardinals trail 2-1 in the seventh. I’ll not insult the readership by offering an analysis of a game 67% complete.

18 August: Boggs vs Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73). Billingsley has not faced the Cardinals in LA since 2006, his rookie season. He gave up 5 ER in 5 innings that July day and lost to the immortal Jason Marquis. He gave up 6 ER on 28 July in a 10-0 loss to the Cardinals in St Louis. Boggs has never faced the Dodgers

19 August: Wainwright vs Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91). Kershaw hooked up with Pineiro in that classic duel on 29 July, considered by some as the best Cardinal game fo the year to date. He got a no decision, but threw 8 innings of 4-hit ball, walking 2 against 7 strikeouts. Set your TIVO accordingly. Kershaw has faced the Cardinals once at home; he went 6, gave up 2 ER, and didn’t get the decision. Wainwright battled for 7 innings against the Padres; sure he threw a shutout while he was in there, but it wasn’t easy.

Prognosis/prediction. Cardinals are playing very well. I don’t want to call the Dodgers desperate, but they’re falling back into a pennant race, and I’m sure they want to treat St Louis as rudely as they were treated the end of July. I am benefiting from watching the game tonight (Ankiel’s BOMB makes it 3-2 Cards in the seventh), but I don’t see the Cardinals winning this series. They’ll get one, then we’ll see.

Go Cards!

Answer: Steve Garvey tied a Major League record with 5 extra base hits in 5 at bats (3 doubles, 2 HR). Yes it was against the Cardinals (Bob Forsch started that day).

Cardinals 7, Padres 4

Considering that Piniero threw 53 pitches to get the first 6 outs, the fact he survived into the seventh is mighty impressive. Although, the Padres deciding to swing at everything he threw up there after Gonzalez's HR in the third helped. To wit:

3rd inning: 9 pitches
4th inning: 10 pitches
5th inning: 11 pitches
6th inning: 15 pitches
7th inning: 8 pitches

Yep, he threw 53 pitches over his last 4 2/3 after throwing 53 in his first 2 innings. Given the state of the Cardinal bullpen this season, and the fact they would most likely have gotten Thompson in long relief, turning into a bunch of hackers was a grave tactical error by the Padres.

Then, with one on and two out, the bullpen implosion started. Reyes - two hits, inherited runner scores. McClellan - hit, walk*, inherited runner scores.

*Hey Home Plate Umpire - how is the pitch you called strike 3 to Holliday in the fifth and Venable in the sixth suddenly a ball for Venable in the seventh? To load the bases? Thanks for not being consistent. We already knew you were bad.

I guess Will Venable didn't get the memo regarding Molina. Appreciate you getting picked off, guy; the Cardinals were on the ropes right there.

If I was a pitcher, Ryan Ludwick would never get a pitch that didn't sweep across the plate from right to left. Ludwick can't hit that pitch. Why would he get anything else? His seventh inning double on that pitch is an excellent example of 'even a blind squirrel sometimes gets a nut,' nothing more.

Is it just me, or does Matt Holliday swing at an awful lot of first pitches? Also, is it me or is Pujols pressing a little bit?

Quite a play to plate the seventh Cardinal run. I wonder if DeRosa went on his own there, or if that was what the dugout had told him to do.

Khalil Greene sighting!

Sure looked like Molina got in under the tag at home. The Padre broadcast team said, 'Well, I guess they don't trust Colby Rasmus!" after that play. Uh, Rasmus was 6 for 9 in this series when that play happened. Perhaps LaRussa called the double steal because he was bored? Because Thatcher wasn't paying attention to the runner on third? Because he wanted someone on in front of Pujols? Because he was swatting at a bee and the sign was misinterpreted by Oquendo? Whatever his reason, it wasn't due to a lack of confidence in Rasmus.

Motte pitched much better tonight than last night, retiring both hitters he faced. I still think he should be sent down, but at least he did his job tonight.

Can't complain about results. Cards stay 4.5 games up on Chicago, and look to sweep tomorrow.

Cardinals 9, Padres 2

I am guaranteed to be able to watch the Cardinals 6 times a year, when they play the Padres. We get a bonus game this year, seeing as they're playing 4 in Petco next weekend. As I mentioned in my preview, Latos/Wainwright could be a tight game.

I didn't know Latos has a tendency to give up solo HR. Wainwright got the ball rolling with his shot in the third.

That would be almost all Adam needed, as the Cardinals rolled 9-2. Some quick thoughts on the game:

- I didn't fully grasp how tough this lineup is until tonight. Pujols-Holliday-Ludwick-DeRosa-Molina? That's a good group.

- Latos looked frustrated at the good pitches he threw being turned into hits. Welcome to the big leagues, kid.

- DeRosa looked lost at the plate, although the late double helped.

- Khalil Greene sighting!

- You know you're going good as a team when you score 9 runs and AP doesn't drive in a single one. In fact, he'd have worn the collar tonight if not for the seeing eye single he had in the eighth.

- Relief Roller Coaster: Trever Miller had me rolling my eyes when he hit Gwynn Jr to start the eighth. Motte had me screaming at the TV set with a Nine Run Lead. Seriously - why is Motte still in the majors? His first 2 hitters missed a HR by 6 feet and hit a HR. Send him down to learn an off-speed pitch he can control. He's not helping the Cardinals if he can only pitch in blowouts and still gets hammered.

- Channel 4 Padres announcers didn't bother to report that Khalil stayed in the game to play third, or Lugo at second. I can't believe they could come up with a worse team than Vasgersian/Grant, but Grant/Gwynn/Neely is worse. Neely didn't realize the reason Venable didn't throw home to try and get Molina was because he juggled the ball after he scooped it up; Gwynn had to tell him. I noticed that from my living room (not HD) 1500+ miles away. Great Googly Moogly. Keep Gwynn and send the other two away.

Round two tomorrow. Piniero/Stauffer.

Series Preview - San Diego

The Cardinals have played every National League team this year but one. That would be the Padres, who come to town for a three-game set. Last year they came in having lost 6 of their last 10 and got swept (4 games). This year they come in having won 11 of 16. Last time they were that hot heading into STL was 2006; they’d won 14 of 20, and took 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. We had the last laugh in the post-season, however.

Mostly well-known tidbit: San Diego had a Pacific Coast League franchise called the Padres, which existed from 1936-1968. Ted Williams played for the Padres in 1936 and 1937.

Trivia Time: The Padres are the only team to trade a player away after a 50 HR season. Who was he, and where did he go?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 64-52, 1st NL Central, 4.5 games ahead of Chicago. Holliday is still hitting over .450 as a Cardinal. They won 2 of 3 from the Reds and have won 7 of 10 overall. They are playing well, and Chicago picked a fantastic time to go into a funk.

San Diego: 49-66, last in NL West, 20 games behind Los Angeles. Ah, the Nine closest to me. Despite the current hot streak (as mentioned above), only the Nationals and Pirates are worse than the Padres. That said, they now feature a lineup which has speed, plays decent defense, and has Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of it. And they just beat up on the Brewers, winning 2 of 3 in Milwaukee. St Louis misses San Diego’s best pitcher this season (Kevin Correia) in this series.

Key Padres

Adrian Gonzalez. Easily the best hitter in baseball getting no notoriety at all nationally. This is a function of the lousy team he currently plays for, and their location. People don’t come to San Diego to watch the Padres, even when they don’t suck. Gonzo reduced Miller Park to a smoking pile of rubble while going 10-16 with 3 doubles, a home run, and 6 RBI in the recently completed series. Suffice it to day the Brewers pitchers are happy to see him leave. He is now the first Padre ever to hit 30 home runs in 3 straight seasons. He can hurt you at any time. Although my fantasy team will cry foul, there is no reason to pitch to him with runners in scoring position in this series.

Heath Bell. Closer. Leads the NL in saves with 29. 51 K in 46 and a third. K/BB ratio of 3.19. He’s pretty good.

David Eckstein. You remember him? Clubhouse leader for the Padres. Brings all those lovely intangibles to the table, and is still (a) fairly clutch with the bat, and (b) is a mean bunter.

Mike Adams. Set-up guy. Filthy. 30 K in 25 IP, K/BB ratio of 6.00. And you’ve never heard of him.

Anthony Gwynn, Jr. I defer to Ted Leitner on how to say the man’s name, also to not confuse him with his rather well-known dad. Gwynn was acquired in a mid-season trade with the Brewers, and has been average at the plate (105 OPS+) and good in CF (5.7 UZR). He’s been worth 1.8 WAR, and he hits leadoff for this team.

Everth Cabrera/William Venable/Kyle Blanks. Much like the Pirates, the Padres have mixed and matched a lot this season. These 3 guys represent the youth movement on the team, and they have played well. Cabrera has great speed and the best arm on the club, at least among position players. He plays shortstop. Venable has been hot in August (hitting .351), and has homered in 6 of his last 12 games. He currently mans RF. Kyle Blanks is a work in progress, but he has ridiculous power. I mean Willy Mo Pena/Dave Kingman sized power. He typically plays left.

Chase Headley. Chase has been something of a disappointment to the Padres. He was a can’t miss prospect the fans begged Kevin Towers to call up early in 2008, but hasn’t hit like everyone thought. However, over his last 14 games the light seems to have gone on. He’s hitting a tick under .400 (.396), and is reaching base in almost half his plate appearances. He’s currently hitting 4th in the Padre order. He has power, but hasn’t displayed it consistently at the major league level. During this current streak, he has 5 doubles, a triple, and no homers.

Pitching Matchups:

14 August: Mat Latos (4-1, 2.43) vs Wainwright. Latos started 2009 in A-ball, was promoted to AA on 23 May, and to the Padres on 9 July. He will probably not pitch in September as the Padres try to protect his arm from a lot of innings this season. He features 98 mile per hour gas, and a slider/changeup as his off-speed options. He’s won his last 4 starts (Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, Mets) and is 2-0 on the road in his short career. He’s good, has the potential to be great, but isn’t there yet. The lineup he will face Friday is the best one he’s seen since his ML debut against Colorado, which he lost 6-1.

15 August: Tim Stauffer (1-4, 2.90) vs Piniero. Stauffer was the 4th overall pick in the 2003 draft, and has bounced between the Padres and their AAA affiliate (Portland Oregon) a lot in the interim. He missed all of the 2008 season with arm surgery. His 1-4 record is a function of run support. In his lone win the Padres scored 7 runs. In his other 5 starts they’ve scored a total of seven runs. He’s not easy to categorize as a ground ball/fly ball pitcher (his GB/FB is 0.95), and he features a fastball (90 MPH) and slider as his primary pitches. He also has a curve ball and changeup.

16 August: Clayton Richard (6-3 overall, 2-0, 4.15 with San Diego) vs Lohse. Richard is one of the key pieces of the 31 July Jake Peavy trade (Poreda is the other). He’s pitched well in his 3 starts with the Padres, but he runs out of gas in the sixth. To wit: he’s allowed 9 runs in those 3 starts, and 7 of them in the sixth inning. He’s very beatable if the Cardinals can keep it close through 5. He throws a fastball/slider/changeup combination mostly, and although the data says he has a cutter and curve, he rarely uses them.

Prognosis/prediction. Because they’re playing well, the Padres will give St Louis a sterner test than the Reds or Pirates did. But that doesn’t mean the Padres will win this series; the Cardinals are playing well, too. Do not pitch to Adrian Gonzalez with runners in scoring position under any circumstances. I cannot emphasize this enough. Cy Young candidate Wainwright has the goods to silence San Diego’s bats, as does Piniero, and so long as Lohse keeps them close they have a good shot to win on Sunday. We’ll predict 2 of 3 for the Redbirds, but there is sweep potential here.

Go Cards!

Answer: Greg Vaughn, 1998, Cincinnati.

What About a Four Man Rotation?

Brad Thompson getting suspended, while Guillermo Mota walks free, is an absolute farce. Hitting a guy up by 13 to protect your hitter is OK, but buzzing a guy up by 7 to protect your hitter isn't? Mota threw with intent, Thompson didn't.

Anyway, on one of the recent United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour shows, Pip from Fungoes raised the question of LaRussa going with a 4-man rotation. After all, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Mitchell Boggs haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. Well they have lit it up, just the wrong way - 10-15, 5+ ERA. Why not just skip that spot in the rotation?

This idea intrigued me.

Starting tomorrow, the Cardinals have 59 games left. With a 5-man rotation, that's 12 starts each for the first 4, and 11 for the #5 slot. With a 4-man rotation, that's 15 starts each for Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero, and 14 for Lohse.

There are a number of off-days between now and the end of the season - 6 to be exact. If they line up right, then the Cardinals could skip 6 starts by the #5 guy. This is good, right?

Well, it's not that good. The off days don't line up exactly like one would want:

6 Aug - Off day
6 games
13 Aug - Off day
10 games
24 Aug - Off day
6 games
31 Aug - Off day
9 games
10 Sept - Off day
6 games
17 Sept - Off day
6 games
24 Sept - Off day
10 games
End regular season.

CC Sabathia threw his last 4 games in 2008 on 3-days rest. Not everyone is CC Sabathia. I definitely don't think the Cardinals will try and pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest, given his medical history. I doubt they'll take that chance/accept that risk with Wainwright or Piniero.

So, if they try to keep them all on 4 days rest, the off-days don't help, and they'll have to use a #5 starter 9 times.

So LaRussa would save himself two starts from Wellemeyer's replacement.

Doesn't sound like its worth it. I like the idea of going with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, and Lohse, but it won't work in practice. Sorry, Pip.

Welcome Back, AP

I'm exhausted this AM, so I'll just say it's nice to see the big fella snap out of his funk.

I wonder if he had a lemonade with a long-lost childhood friend, who then attended the ball game and stood up during his at bat in the eighth. That ball didn't break a clock, but it was mashed.

If he hits 4 HR today....

Series Preview - New York

For those of you coming from Cards Clubhouse, thanks for stopping by. Trivia answer is at the bottom.

St Louis flies to New York for a couplet with the Mets. Cardinals are 4-3 against New York this season, and dropped 3 of 4 at Citi Field back in June. This is another example of the ridiculous 2009 schedule; why was it necessary to play a 4 game set in June, then a 2 game set in August?

Mostly well-known tidbit: The Mets averaged 105 losses their first 7 seasons in the National League, then won the World Series in 1969. They were helped into the playoffs courtesy of an epic collapse by the Cubs, but going from finishing no higher than 9th to Champions of Baseball? No wonder that team wore the ‘Amazin’ Mets’ moniker.

Trivia Time: Can you name the starting rotation from the 1969 Mets, as well as the 1969 Cardinals?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 58-50, tie 1st NL Central, .001 percentage points behind Chicago. St Louis concluded a 5-2 home stand by getting shut out 2-0. Lost in all the Matt Holliday hoopla is the team only scoring 3 runs a game in their last 5, as well as Albert Pujols having cooled off significantly. Pujols is 14-62 with 2 HR since the break, and those 2 homers came in the first game after the break. Cause for concern. Ludwick hasn’t exactly lit it up since the break either (17-66, 2 HR, 10 RBI).

New York(N): 50-54, 4th NL East, 9.5 games behind Philadelphia. But for the Nationals they’d be in the basement. This is a team in disarray that is largely finished in 2009. Their DL reads like an All-Star Roster (Delgado, Reyes, Beltran, Putz, Wagner, Maine, among others). Then there’s the Tony Bernazard firing, the surreal press conference following that event, the HR Apple ‘issues’… they’re only 7.5 out of the Wild Card, but they have to jump over seven teams to win that. Not likely.

Pitching match-ups

4 August: Piniero vs Johan Santana (12-8, 2.96). Two-time CY Young winner Santana returns to the hill to torment the Cardinals. He beat Chris Carpenter 3-2 in a memorable game on 25 June that lived up to its billing. Santana is currently tied for th NL lead in wins with 12. He’s pitched very well against the Cardinals; in his 2 starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA.

He’s also 2-0 against Piniero in his career (win 2-1 on 28 Aug 02, and 7-3 on 8 June 06; there’s a ND as well (28 May 06)). Those games were while Joel was a Mariner and Santana a Twin.

Molina leads the current Cardinals in success against him (3-7, RBI). Pujols and Ludwick have homered off Johan. Khalil and Ryan lead the team in futility, they are 0-8 and 0-7, respectively, against Santana.


Piniero had a fantastic July and should be in the running for NL Pitcher of the Month. He went 3-0 (the team was 5-0 when he started) with a 1.22 ERA and a ridiculous .497 OPS during the month. That’s not a typo. He has owned the Mets this season, winning 5-2 in STL (22 April) and shutting them out 3-0 on 23 June. He pitched into the ninth both times.

David Wright is 5-14 with 2 doubles against. Angel Berroa (3-10), Jeff Francoeur (3-10), and Fernando Tatis (2-6) have had some success in limited action.

5 Aug: Lohse vs Livan Hernandez (7-5, 4.77). Livan has faced the Cardinals twice this year and is 0-2. He got lit up in his first start, giving up 7 ER in 4 1/3 of a 12-8 loss. His second start was better, but he opposed the Joel Piniero buzzsaw and lost 3-0. Livan remains your classic junkball pitcher, one of those guys who just keeps changing speeds and location.

Lots of Cardinals like to see him walk to the mound (WARNING! Small Sample Size anomalies follow), none more than Brendan Ryan (5-7, HR). The list of Cardinal regulars hitting .400 or better against him includes Schumaker (3-7) and Lugo (8-20). Pujols has 3 HR in 40 plate appearances. I don’t expect to see Khalil start in this series at all, and his 3-23 mark against Hernandez assures if he does start, it won’t be in this game. Ludwick is 1-10 off Hernandez, so he might sit this one out.

Lohse showed signs of coming around. His start against the Dodgers was his best since coming off the DL, as well as his best since his 8 shutout innings in KC on 23 May. He’s only given up one run in his last 9 innings pitched, so that’s something to build on for sure. Lohse beat Hernandez on in that 12-8 game on 23 April. As near as I can tell, that’s the only time the two have faced each other.

Lots of Mets hit well against Lohse (their team average is .327 off him, with a .374 OBP) Guys who DON’T hit him well include Francoeur (1-13) and, well, Francoeur. Everyone else is at least a .273 hitter. Yikes. Wright, Sheffield, Tatis, and Brian Schneider have all hit a Lohse pitch a looong way.


Prognosis/prediction. Cubs are in Cincinnati to take on the hapless Reds, so the Cardinals will need to win both these games to keep pace. Lohse, when on, is clearly better than Livan, and the 2009 Joel is as good as Johan. A sweep is definitely possible, but we’ll predict a split.

Go Cards!


Trivia Answers:
1969 Mets: Tom Seaver (25-7, 2.21), Jerry Koosman (17-9, 2.28), Gary Gentry (13-12, 3.43), Don Cardwell (8-10, 3.01), and Jim McAndrew (6-7, 3.47). Nolan Ryan did start 10 games for this team.
1969 Cardinals: Bob Gibson (20-13, 2.18), Steve Carlton (17-11, 2.07), Nelson Briles (15-13, 3.52), Ray Washburn (3-8, 3.06), and Mike Torrez (10-4, 3.59). Dave Giusti (12 starts), Chuck Taylor (not the shoes, and 13 starts), and Mudcat Grant (3 starts) spotted for this team.

Holliday and Boras

Sunday's Post Dispatch featured an article about Matt Holliday. Yes, he of the .606 AVG going into yesterday's game (which was subsequently deflated by his first 'oh-fer' as a Cardinal). The jist of the article was discussing how much Holliday has helped the Cardinals, but the interesting part was the talk about re-signing him.

Money quotes:

Finding the term "rental player" repugnant, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. has pledged an all-out attempt to sign Holliday to an extension before he reaches free agency in November. The club minimizes Holliday's rejection of a Rockies proposal that averaged $18 million...

and

Boras on Saturday called "absurd" any suggestion of pending talks. He also sees ready comparisons with Carlos Beltran's trade from Kansas City to the Houston Astros in 2004 and Mark Teixeira's move from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels last July(emphasis mine). Both players landed elsewhere via free agency months after their big-splash trades.

Hoo, Boy.

So what does that really mean?

Beltran and Teixeira were both traded at or near the 31 July deadline; Beltran in 2004, Teixeira in 2007 and 2008. Here are some select numbers they each put up after the trade, and their subsequent contracts:

Beltran:
2004 (KC): 309 Plate appearances, .278/.367/.534, 15 HR 51 RBI
2004 (HOU): 399 PA, .258/.368/.559, 23 HR 53 RBI.
Post Season: 20-46, 8 HR, 14 RBI.

His numbers in Houston were pretty close to what he put up in Kansas City. He hit for a lower average but had more power. His post-season numbers, however, were ridiculous. That post-season, more than anything else, drove the 7 year/$119 million deal he signed with New York (which will pay him $18.5M through 2011)

Teixeira:
2007 (TEX) - 335 PA, .297/.397/.524, 13 HR 49 RBI.
2007 (ATL) - 340 PA, .317/.404/.615, 17 HR 56 RBI.
2008 (ATL) - 451 PA, .283/.390/.512, 20 HR 78 RBI.
2008 (LAA) - 234 PA, .358/.449/.632, 13 HR 43 RBI.
Post Season (2008) - 15 AB, .467/.550/.467, 0 HR 1 RBI.

Teixeira was widely accused of sand-bagging in Texas prior to the trade to Atlanta, but the numbers don't quite bear that out. However, he didn't command what he thought he should on the open market, so signed a 1 year deal for $12.5M with the Braves.

His Anaheim numbers look like they declined from his Atlanta ones, until you realize he did that in about half the at-bats he had in Atlanta. His post-season didn't drive the market quite as radically as Beltran's did in 2004, but he still got paid with the 8 year/$180M the Yankees bequeathed him ($20M this and next year, then $22.5M until 2016).

If those are the kinds of numbers Boras is contemplating for Holliday, that's a scary proposition.

Holliday's WAR right now is 3.8, which translates into $17.2M for his work in 2009. In 2008, when he finished his season, Teixeira's WAR was the highest it had ever been (6.7), which put his value at $30M; he got $22.5M a season (average, including bonuses). His compensation probably suffered that hit based on both the state of the economy last fall, as well as the Sabathia signing. Beltran's 2005 WAR was 6.5, good enough to be worth $20.2M, and he got $17M a season (average).

I assume teams will still be willing to pay ~$5 million dollars a win for high-end free agents this winter. Holliday certainly qualifies as a high-end guy. Holliday's career high in WAR is 7.9 (2007), and he's tearing it up right now; so let's further assume he'll stay in the high end of his statistical averages (assuming he'll stay as white hot as he is now is a little silly), so that'd put his 2009 WAR at a solid 7.

That's $35M a year for him. The Cardinals can't afford that.

Drop the price to $30M. So what? The Cardinals still can't afford him.

Lower his yearly salary to $22.5M, the same level Teixeira got last year. That could be doable, however, there's this additional elephant in the room: Albert Pujols is a free agent in 2011, and the team wants to re-sign him too. Albert's AVERAGED a 7.8 WAR from 2002-2008. That's, um, $40M per.

If they break the bank to sign Holliday, will there be any $$ left to sign Pujols? Highly unlikely.

It's becoming increasingly clear the Cardinals can't afford both Holliday and Pujols. At least to me. Now, there are options, which we'll explore later this week.

Let's hope they win the World Series this year. It may be their last shot for a while.