Pujols awarded NL MOP

Congratulations to Albert Pujols for winning his second NL Most Outstanding Player award, as voted by his peers in the NL. Albert won the award in 2003 as well.

There were rumors during the All-Star game that the NL players didn't vote Albert onto the team, and that he was a manager's add to the roster. Some made some hay about Hanley Ramirez being the best player in the NL at that time, having supplanted Pujols. Guess not.

Derrick Gould posted a story on the award at the Post Dispatch site, and there's a video report on it over at Yahoo! sports.

As Derrick mentioned, there's no correlation between winning this award and winning the league MVP. Does AP deserve both? Based on his numbers, yeah. But there are a lot of other worthy candidates out there, as I've detailed here previously.

Today we start the last series of the baseball season. Game 1 of the World Series. Kazmir vs Hamels. Two good left handed pitchers. Should be good. Hope people besides the baseball niche audience (and large audiences in Philly and Tampa) tune in.

Mulder not coming back

Derrick Gould reported yesterday the Cardinals have not picked up Mark Mulder's option for the 2009 season, instead bought out his contract for $1.5 mil. I don't think this comes as surprise to anyone, including Mark Mulder. The article stated Mark's still working out at his home trying to rehabilitate his arm, but I don't think anyone's going to come calling.

We also found out yesterday that the Cardinals probably aren't really in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, based on Bernie Micklasz's article (which referenced a SD Union Tribune article by Tim Sullivan). That, I think, is unfortunate, but in some ways understandable. If they really, really believe that Colby Rasmus will be the franchise's CF for the next 15 years, then trading him to San Diego for 5 years of Jake Peavy might not be worth it. And if the Padres won't even start negotiations if the proposal doesn't include Rasmus, then perhaps it's DOA. But boy wouldn't a rotation of Peavy/Carpenter/Wainwright/Lohse/Wellemeyer be fun?


Some belated comments/thoughts about Game 7 of the ALCS:

- You realize no Florida-based ML team has ever lost a post-season series?
- The Jon Lester that pitched the first 3 innings of Game 7 is the Lester I thought would show up for Game 3.
- I knew Matt Garza was good, but I didn't think he was good enough to 2-hit the Red Sox for 7 innings.
- In the crazy eighth, Pedroia JUST MISSED hitting a 3-run HR. And he knew it, judging from his reaction in the dugout after the at bat.
- This is the first time a Wild Card winner won't be in the world series since the Mets/Yankees series (as we mentioned before).

Of course, the 'this sucks, no one's going to watch this series' articles have started appearing (here's one on sportsline.com). No big media market involved. No 'As The World Turns' drama with Manny. No end the curse stuff with the Cubs. Boo frigging hoo.

I'm sure the fans in Philadelphia and Tampa will be respectfully apologetic they're in the WS. If asked, I'll bet the teams will defer to Chicago and Boston to give Fox the matchup they really wanted.

Yeah right.

What you will get, however, is some excellent baseball. Lots of young pitchers, good hitters, and solid defense in this series. For the baseball fan, this will be a great series. In fact, I don't think the Rays are that overwhelming a team when compared to the Phillies. I think this series will be competitive and a lot better than expected. I also think it will be the first series since 2003 to see a Game 6 at least.

Should be fun.

One more interesting little tidbit. Jimmy Rollins recently said he wanted to change the culture of losing in Philadelphia when he got there. The Phillies have been around for 126 years. If he'd played during the first 98 years, there'd have been a culture of losing needing fixing; after all, the Phillies won exactly 2 NL championships in those 98 years (1915 and 1950). However, starting in 1980, guess who the teams are to have appeared in the World Series more than twice?

AL - NY Yankees (7 - 1981, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003), Boston (3 - 1986, 2004, 2007)

NL - St Louis (5 - 1982, 1985, 1987, 2004, 2006), Atlanta (5 - 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1999), Philadelphia (4 - 1980, 1983, 1993, 2008).

The Phillies have been to twice as many World Series in the last 28 years than in the first 98. I think the culture has already changed, and that change started with Michael Jack Schmidt and those great Philly teams in the 1970s. For what it's worth.

Even More Peavy News - from the Front Office

Paul DePodesta, one time Dodgers GM, now special assistant to Sandy Alderson of the Padres, has his own blog. He weighed in on the Peavy trade rumors Thursday.

There's not much revealing in what he had to say. We're trying to get better, clubs rate value of players differently, if we can get a high return for offering Peavy we should consider it, no player is untouchable if an offer comes in that will help out the club. All of those comments, frankly, are common sense from a purely business perspective.

If the Padres are weighing the potential public relations nightmare trading Peavy for prospects could bring, they aren't saying so - at least, DePodesta didn't allude to it in his article.

You can read the entire post here, if you're interested.

Why am I spending so much time discussing Peavy? Because, if he's available, and the Padres want a starting CF and pitching prospects in return, the Cardinals have the players in their system to match that offer. I had proposed Ludwick, Anderson, and perhaps Boggs and Parisi to get Peavy. That's a high price, however, and the Padres might not take Ludwick - they may hold out for Rasmus. That's an even higher price, and takes two of our best prospects out of the system. However, based on (a) our depth in the outfield, (b) the fact that Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher in the league, and has figured out how to hit, and (c) we desperately need starting pitching depth given Carpenter's injury and Wainwright's recent injury, it's something we should seriously consider.

Peavy isn't going to go into the tank overnight. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Now, that said, I just remembered he missed time this season with elbow trouble...we'd better do an exhaustive work-up on his health before committing those kind of prospects in this deal.

Game 6 of the ALCS is tonight - looking forward to watching that one.

More Peavy news

Simmons' article about ALCS Game 5 is up. You can jump to it by following this link. A 'somewhat' more readable article than the one I posted below, but that's to be expected; Simmons writes for a living, I write in those few spare moments I can wrangle out of my day (or when half-asleep and/or after an adult beverage or two, as was the case last night).

Buster Olney has more info on the Jake Peavy Sweepstakes. Here's a link to his article. Some interesting things from the article:

At least one team the Padres have spoken with about Peavy have demonstrated an interest in expanding the deal to include shortstop Khalil Greene, whose $6.5 million salary the Padres would like to move,

Cesar Izturis has been maligned by a large segment of the Cardinals on-line community, mostly due to a lack of offensive production. However for my money he's a much better option than Khalil. First of all, there is no difference in defensive ability between the two. Second, Khalil isn't a hit for average guy; he won't hit above .260. Third, 2007 was a career for Greene (27 HR, 97 RBI), and last year he returned to something approximating his career norms. Fourth, other than his 2007 season, he has missed significant time each year with various hand issues (usually broken bones in his glove hand). So if Greene is a mandatory part of this trade to get Peavy, well, unless Mo can swing a 3-team deal to move Greene on somewhere else that's a deal breaker.

Multiple sources consider it likely the Padres will deal Peavy in the weeks ahead, and that is a virtual certainty that he will be traded before the July 31 deadline next season. The Padres are seeking at least two young pitchers in return, along with someone who can become the team's everyday center fielder sometime in the immediate to near future.

Cardinals have a plethora of guys who can play center (Schumaker, Ankiel, Ludwick, Rasmus). Two young pitchers? It would probably take someone like Jimenez, Parisi, Motte, or Boggs. Piniero if we're lucky.

Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, told local sports talkradio yesterday that Peavy did take a 'San Diego discount' when he signed his extension last year, so he'd be looking for additional compensation from whatever team landed him via trade. Seeing as the Cardinals already committed (gulp) $42M to Lohse for the next 4 years, I'm not sure how much room remains in their budget.

However, I remain convinced that when talent comes available, that can help your particular situation, you should go for it. Go for it, Mozeliak.

Epic - And a Stomach-Punch Game

Bill Simmons is wont to post on Fridays. Normally, at this point in the calendar, it's a football column that discusses his picks for the weekend's games. Somehow I think his post tomorrow will be about this game.

Bill is also given to calling games where you take a heartbreaking loss as a Stomach Punch Game. Especially when you lead 7-0 in the seventh in a series you led 3 games to one.

I couldn't figure out why Maddon removed Kazmir, but, he had thrown 111 pitches through his 6 innings. Balfour had been good in the post-season, and even though he lost the shutout on Pedroia's single, all was not lost.

Until the 1-0 pitch to Ortiz.

Big Papi had struggled mightily in the playoffs, and especially in this series, with one meaningless triple in this series (meaningless because the game was 13-1 against when he hit it). As he goes, so, it seems, go the Red Sox. The fans were appropriately supportive of the team, but there was understanding of how difficult the task was at hand, to come back from 6 down with 7 outs to go.
When that ball landed in the right field stands Fenway exploded. Not only were the Red Sox only down 3, but Papi had finally, FINALLY delivered in the clutch in this post season. They had reason to hope.

And, they believed they would win this game. More importantly, the Red Sox players did, too.

The rest was almost a foregone conclusion.

I thought Francona used his bullpen correctly. Okajima came in early when it became apparent Dice didn't have it. Despite the 2-run double to Upton, Paplebon in the seventh and eighth was the right call; he had to hold the Rays right where they were in order to have a chance.

And finally, the team got some luck. Upton slightly overran Kotsay's double and it ticked off his glove. Gross had his plant foot slip when trying to throw home on Crisp's single that tied the game in the eighth. Longoria made a horrible throw on Youkilis' grounder (after making a great play on the ball) to extend the ninth. And Drew's game winning ground-rule double was just over the outstretched glove of Greg Gross.

Before we get all warm and fuzzy about Boston coming back, again, from 3-1 down to win the AL (it would be the third time in 5 years they've done that), remember - no Boston starter has made it out of the fifth since Dice went into the seventh in Game 1. Tampa gets the next 2 at home. Shields is tough at home, as is Garza who would pitch Game 7. Beckett isn't right.

However, I will say this: Tampa better win this thing in 6. Because if they give Jon Lester a chance to redeem himself after the game 3 egg he laid, they might not have enough to win.

I had to mention all of that, because I'm sure Simmons will focus on the inevitability of Boston's comeback based on this game tomorrow.

More on Jake Peavy

These comments are quoted from signonsandiego.com:

Kevin Towers said last month it would be “very, very difficult to trade Jake Peavy” because of the ace pitcher's value to the Padres. Nonetheless, the general manager is open to trade offers for Peavy, who has guaranteed salaries of $11 million, $15 million, $16 million and $17 million over the next four years.

“Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League,” Axelrod said. “It is hypothetical, but Jake, by any measure, has had a great deal of success in the National League. He has a comfort level with knowing how to approach hitters here.”

Axelrod made one concrete stipulation to any trade scenarios: “Jake would only approve a trade to a team with a solid chance of winning and a winning tradition. Those teams in the National League may be in locations that are more acceptable, or would be.”

Among the cities Axelrod mentioned were Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and St. Louis.

Paging John Mozeliak: If you haven't called Kevin Towers to inquire about what it would take to move Jake Peavy to St Louis, what the hell are you waiting for?

Your 2008 NL champs - Phil-a-DELPHIA

Well at least the Manny Ramirez Circus is over. For 10 days or so. No more hearing about where he could go next. No more hope for a Boston/LA series. By extension, no more Nomar/Derek Lowe back to Fenway in the WS stories.

Glad that's over.

If Boston comes back to win, the Phillies will be heavy favorites to win their second World Series ever. But that's not going to happen (see previous post).

A Tampa/Philadelphia series should be a real good one from a pure baseball perspective. Two good teams with a ton of power, young stars, and excellent pitching.

Here's hoping.

Jake Peavy, anyone?

The local news is reporting the Padres are actively shopping Jake Peavy. Peavy, along with Trevor Hoffman and Adrian Gonzalez, is the face of this franchise, not to mention one of the best pitchers in baseball. Why ownership would be willing to part with a true Ace is beyond me, especially an organization coming off a 99 loss season.

The Padres have significant deficiencies all across the diamond they need to fix. Only 1B and RF are set for next year (RF is Brian Giles, BTW). Mozeliak did a good job of replenishing the farm system during last year's winter meetings. Here's a chance to grab lightning in a bottle. Trade some of that capital for Peavy. He's only 27. What a steal that would be.

In other news, the Rays HAMMERED Boston for a second consecutive night at Fenway, winning 13-4. Boston is down 3-1 again. There have been 4 teams down 3-1 in the ALCS who have come back to win:

1985, Kansas City (against Toronto)

1986, Boston (against California, er, Anaheim, er, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)

2004, Boston (against New York, more famously remembered because they were down 3-0 as well)

2007, Boston (against Cleveland).

Kansas City and the 04 Red Sox managed to win Games 6 and 7 on the road. The other two teams won Games 6 and 7 at home. That KC team had some pretty good pitchers (Mark Gubicza, Charlie Liebrandt, Bud Black, some guy named Saberhagen), and the 04 Red Sox had a bloody sock (and some stalwart pitching too).

This Red Sox Team? Well, they had their best pitcher get bludgeoned at home in Game 3, their pitching hero from last year hasn't looked right all season (and especially since the end of August), they don't trust Byrd, Wakefield got absolutely HAMMERED last night, they're missing two big bats (one to trade, the other to injury), Ortiz isn't hitting....

They aren't coming back.

Tampa shifting Kazmir to tomorrow and saving Shields for Game 6 in Tampa - where he's 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA this season - was really smart. And then they've got Garza in Game 7 - he's 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA at home - in case the Red Sox start to come back from the dead.

They aren't coming back.

We've lost a Giant

George Kissel died last night, succumbing to injuries suffered in a Monday car accident. He was 88.

Please read this article by Derrick Goold on the man. Three things jumped out at me from that article: (a), he went to an open tryout that included at least 385 players and was 1 of 2 to be signed; (b), he was signed by Branch Rickey, making him almost certainly the last man remaining in baseball Branch Rickey signed as a player; and (c), he served his country during WWII in and around Guadalcanal - which was not a safe place to be in 1942-43.

Rays and Red Sox move on

It's almost too bad the Sox eliminated Anaheim tonight, because that series was just beginning to get good.

Scioscia will take a lot of flak for attempting the suicide squeeze in a tie game in the ninth. He had a lot going for him on that call, however. 2-0 count. His best bunter at the plate. A speedy runner at third. The only problem was, the Red Sox were looking for it; they've read the scouting report, too. The first 2 pitches Delcarmen threw were not bunt-able, no way. The third one wasn't buntable either. In fact, I can't believe it didn't hit Aybar on the way by. A perfect pitch to spoil the bunt.

Here's why that play didn't make sense. Assume Aybar does something that doesn't drive in the run. On deck is Figgins. He tripled in his last AB of game 2, and scored the tying run in that game. Including that at bat, he was 6 for 12 since - .500 - after starting 1 for his first 9. He's their hottest hitter not named Teixiera. Although he was 0 for 1 against Delcarmen in this post-season, and 0 for 2 with a walk all time against Delcarmen, I like the odds of him getting a hit to drive in that run.

Rays? It seemed preordained they'd make it this far. That should be a fun series.

Now, the next question is why o why are we made to wait until Thursday for the LCS to start? Why can't the NLCS start tomorrow? Why can't MLB run its playoffs like the NHL does?

Update 10/7 0845: A thought occurred to me while driving in to work this morning (yes, most drivers are concentrating on the road ahead, I'm replaying baseball in my head. You may shake your head in dismay.....now). Why didn't Scioscia call for a safety squeeze? Willits is in the game solely because he is one of the fastest guys on the Anaheim roster. With a good secondary lead off third, and a bunt, he could easily beat the play home. Why take the riskiest option available to try and force that run? I know hindsight is always 20/20, but I wonder why he chose that path.

More Quick Thoughts

- Philadelphia sent Milwaukee into that good night 6-2. So much for the NL Central, who exit the 2008 post season derby having lost 6 of 7 games they played.

- Not resigning Suppan looks better and better every year, doesn't it?

- John Danks is a beast. Another dominating performance on the mound. I had him, briefly, on my fantasy team last year and he wasn't very good. My wife drafted him this year and I thought I was helping her out by telling her she should jettision him. She didn't listen. Good thing, too. Danks was also 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA over 5 starts against the Rays going into today.

- Boston really had no business extending their game into 12 innings tonight, when you consider they only got 7 hits in those 12 innings. However, I think they will rue this loss, especially given how many opportunities they had to close the Angels out (bases loaded in 10th, runner on second in 11th, and so on).

Yet another reason to love the Pacific Time Zone: Baseball during working hours. Rays/Chisox at 1330, Angels/Bosox at 1630. Very cool.

Some Quick Thoughts

- Watching JD Drew's HR leave the Big A last night caused me to flash back to this game. Not quite the same way that 2000 NLCS game ended, but boy - to watch the Angels fight back to tie, then lose in the ninth - the similarities were eerie.

- A Wild Card team has reached the World Series every year since 2000. Continuing the spooky trend, the leagues have actually alternated (bold means won WS) sending the Wild Card team to the World Series (they both went in 2002):

NL: 2001 (Arizona), 2002 (Giants), 2003 (Florida), 2005 (Houston), 2007 (Colorado)
AL: 2002 (Angels), 2004 (Red Sox), 2006 (Detroit).

Think the Red Sox know that interesting statistical anomaly? They're the AL wild card this season.

- Has Dale Sveum always known that interference rule he went out to discuss with the umpires in Game 3 of his series, or does Milwaukee have a 'managing for dummies' course they require all their managers to go to, complete with required memorization of obscure rules?

- Craig Sager looked like rainbow sherbert last night. Very tacky. My wife's comment, upon seeing him: 'Who's the retard?' I think that sums it up nicely.

- Thanks to Milwaukee for winning Game 3. I was getting tired of seeing the same teams win in each series. At least one of the LDS series is interesting now.

- It's hard to believe this is the first time the Dodgers have won a postseason series since 1988, and the first time they've swept since guys like Koufax and Drysdale prowled the mound (1963, to be exact).

- In all seriousness, did we really expect another result for the Cubs than what they got? Piniella mis-managed Game 1; there was no sense leaving Dempster in to pitch to Loney when (a) he had just walked the bases loaded, (b) he had struggled throught his 4 and 2/3 innings to that point, (c) ball 4 to Ethier was his 101st pitch of the evening, and (d) Piniella had men warmed up in the bullpen. That HR will join the 4 things I listed in my last post as the ones that drove a nail in Cub playoff aspirations.

After that HR, everyone - and I mean, EVERYONE - in Wrigley tightened up. Except the Dodgers, who suddenly believed they could win the game. TBS continued, helpfully, to show Cubs fans in various stages of agony. Cubs players began to think, "Oh shit, here we go again." Lost that game. Played an awful Game 2 and got buried. Then, tonight, with the season on the line, they did the worst possible thing by giving up 2 in the first, because I'm sure the 'here we go again' thoughts started moving through their heads. Not to mention those two first inning runs nearly blew the roof off Dodger Stadium, if that was even possible given the energy in that building before the game started. After D Lee struck out on a pitch he couldn't hope to hit to end the fifth, flung his bat towards the dugout, and fired his helmet into the ground, I told my wife 'The Cubs are done."

This was, you'll have to believe me, before TBS zeroed in on that act as a prime example of Cub frustration.

I would have won a lot of money if I had predicted the Cubs would be the first team out in the 2008 postseason.

- One final thought - did you know the Cubs have NEVER won a World Series at Wrigley? That's right, they played their first game there 8 years after winning their last WS title. So, of course, the solution to their woes is simple. Build a new stadium on the site of their last WS win and tear Wrigley down. The Red Sox waited 86 years to win a WS, but their 1918 title was won with Fenway as their home ballpark.

Imagine you're a Cub fan...

And you go into every year with a sense of hope, but you don't believe in it.

And most years you're right. You end the season with a blase feeling about the losing. Some seasons (like 1969), the team is competitive for a while but falls apart in the end; those years you have your heart ripped out and stomped right in front of you.

But every now and then (1984, 1989, ;1998, 2003) your team pulls it together and has a good season. Good enough, in fact, to make the playoffs.

But you can't really enjoy it, because in that deep dark corner of your mind you refuse to acknowledge the foreboding remains. Something is going to go wrong.

Which it does. Ground ball through Durham. Will Clark. Braves pitching. Alou's tantrum and Gonzalez's error.

Those years, not only is your heart ripped out and stomped, but you live long enough to watch your killer have sex with your hot girlfriend in your bed.

Only the 2001 Yankees have recovered from losing the first two LDS games at home to win the series. AND, losers of Game 1 of an NLDS series have lost the series 23 out of 26 times.

Looks like they get to watch the sex again this year.

Man I'm glad I'm not a Cubs fan.

Lohse gets rich; Ludwick gets third

In case you missed it, yesterday's White Sox-Twins game was quite tense, and a well played one. I was very surprised the Twins sent Cuddyer to the plate on that short fly ball to CF. Ken Griffey Jr, although getting on in years and not the perennial All-Star he once was (yes I remember he made the team as a starter again this year), he is still a very competent OF. That throw was a chipshot for him. Loved Cuddyer's attempt to fly through AJ Pierzinsky, however. AJ tagged him with his body, not sure if the ball ever touched Cuddyer's side.

The LDS kick off today, everyone's in action except White Sox/Rays, which is eminently fair since the Sox have to travel to Tampa for that game, at least in my opinion. "Evil Mike" hopes Lowe completely shuts down Chicago in the opener. Lowe threw 7 shutout innings against the Cubs back in May in a ND - game was at Wrigley. Can you imagine the unmitigated angst in Wrigley if they are down 1-0 with the loon Zambrano and his tender shoulder taking the mound?

On to Cardinal news.

Kyle Lohse was re-signed for 4 years, $41 million yesterday. Or at least the deal was consummated yesterday. Nice raise for Mr. Lohse. He will almost triple his career earnings with this contract. Details of the deal can be found here. I don't have any problem re-signing Lohse, however I can't believe the cost. He had a great year, I will not dispute that; but it was his first winning season in the NL and his first winning season anywhere since 2003. Also, looking at who baseball-reference compared him to did not warm my heart:

Similar pitchers: John Thomson (in KC's minors)? Mark Redman (2-5 for Colorado this year)? Adam Eaton (bleech)?

Similar pitchers at age 28: Jose Lima, Joel Piniero, Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis (!), Sidney Ponson.

Giving an average of $10.25M (yes I know it's backloaded) over 4 years for what at best projects to be a #3 starter seems slightly insane. Here's a list of current #3 starters in AL (and bear with the AL comparison, it's from my Rotisserie League, and I'm using it because it's available on short notice), and their compensation:

Joe Saunders (ANA) - $425K
Chris Waters (BAL) - League Min
Jon Lester (BOS) - $421K
Gavin Floyd (CWS) - $400K
Jeremy Sowers (CLE) - $397K
Zach Miner (DET) - $410K
Zach Greinke (KC) - $1.4M
Kevin Slowey (MIN) - $395K
Sidney Ponson (NYY) - league Min
Sean Gallagher (OAK) - league min
Carlos Silva (SEA) - $12M
Matt Garza (TB) - $404K
Matt Harrison (TEX) - $390K
Jesse Litsch (TOR) - $395K

Granted, most of these guys are either very junior or teams took flyers on them at the end of the year, but it doesn't bode well that the only guy in the same income bracket with Lohse on this list went 4-15 and didn't win a single game after the first of June.

Let's move on from depression to frustration.

How in the hell does Ludwick finish third in the comeback player of the year voting? Yes Brad Lidge went through a tough spell after AP's HR, but he still saved 51 games in 2006/2007 with Houston - it's not like he dropped off the face of the earth, or spent an entire year in the minors like Cliff Lee did (who completely deserved the AL award). Kerry Wood has a much better argument than Lidge, seeing he threw the most innings he's thrown in 4 years and became the anchor of the Chicago bullpen this year.

But Ludwick? First, he plays every day. Second, he set career highs in HR, RBI, Runs scored, and on and on and on. Third, he played 81 games in 4 years at the ML level as he fought back from a variety of injuries. His 2008 numbers are so far beyond what he had put up in any season before it's ridiculous, not to mention he was third in the NL in HR, sixth in RBI, second in Slugging, hit 40 doubles... wow. Hard to believe he got third.

Well I got what I asked for...

...And that was a sweep of the hapless Reds. It's nice to go out on a winning note, especially a 6-game winning streak. St Louis finishes 86-76, which is 14 more wins than I predicted they'd get at the beginning of the season. Well done to all.

Additionally, this club finds itself in a LOT better shape as it enters the 2008 off season than it did entering the last. Last year we had questions at second (who?), short (resign Eckstein?), third (Rolen's friction with LaRussa), right (who to succeed Encarnacion), center (would Edmonds be healthy), and in the rotation (Carp out, Reyes on the way out, and a patchwork of other starters). This year, we have questions at second, because Miles isn't the answer, short, because I'm not sure Lopez is the answer, and the bullpen. That's actually a lot better than it was.

THE GOOD:
- Glaus turned into a more than capable replacement for Rolen, with the bat (despite his cold start) and surprisingly with the glove. Glaus is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at 3B, and if they still took defensive stats into account when selecting that award he'd win it.
- Pujols had another typical MVP year.
- Molina proved his hitting actually has improved and turned into one of the more reliable Cardinal bats.
- Ludwick realized the enormous potential he's always had.
- Ankiel proved his second half surge last year wasn't a fluke.
- The committee in left (Duncan, Schumaker, Barton, et al) was competent.
- Wellemeyer has a future as a starter; he pitched very well in his first full season as a starter, including Pitcher of the Month in May.
- Lohse won 15 games and carried the team the first half.
- Looper was more good than bad.
- Kyle McClellan. At least until August.

THE BAD:
- Izzy's done.
- Bullpen in general.
- Revolving door at second
- Joel Piniero
- Carpenter's new arm injury
- Wainwright missing 3 months to a strained ligament
- Wasted money on Mark Mulder and Matt Clement
- the Anthony Reyes debacle

So as the off-season starts, I like the foundation Mozeliak's put in place. Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Looper make 4/5 of a pretty good rotation. Carpenter is a HUGE question mark; how his arm responds to treatment will, I think, largely define how next season goes.

Priorities in my view: We need to find a reasonably priced starter as insurance for Carp. The bullpen must be rebuilt; Perez as closer and McClellan as set-up are good places to start, Thompson can be the long relief bubba, Springer probably has some gas left in the tank, but left handed specialists and 1-2 more reliable right-handed arms are a must. More offensive production must be found at second. Get a thumper in there, and we can put up with Izturis at short (love the glove), although a better bat (more gap power) would obviously help.

Chicago is the best team in the NL right now and probably will be again next year. Milwaukee just made the playoffs, but their best 2 starters will probably play for someone else next season. Wild Card and 90 wins should be our goals for next year. Once we make the playoffs, as we learned in 2006, anything can happen.

And hopefully we won't be happy with a season-ending sweep of the Reds next year. Unless, of course, we're playing the Reds in the NLCS.


Since the Redbirds won't be in the playoffs this season, I'll have to adopt someone for rooting interest. There will be interest in the baseball playoffs at my house so long as Boston remains alive, courtesy of my wife, but I need something else to write about. I've been thinking about this since St Louis was officially eliminated from the playoffs, and after careful consideration, there's only one team to back.

Whenever someone makes their initial trip to the post-season, some part of your soul has to root for them. So it is for me. We'll be watching the Tampa Bay Rays here at the Stance.

Fan Appreciation Weekend

Well here we finally are. The last weekend of the season. For the Cardinals, this will be the last 3 games of 2008; they are not to be seen again (on a baseball diamond, that is) until pitchers and catchers report in Feb 09.

The end of the season is always bittersweet. On the bad side, there's no more baseball on every night across the country. My fantasy team will no longer be a viable path to distraction during those boring days at work. On the good side, we get to see other teams play on TV than the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Lame-o West Coast regional game. And playoff baseball is usually compelling and fun to watch.

Of course, the Cardinals will not be in the playoffs this year. As has been pointed out elsewhere, this will mark the first time this decade (and millenium, for those of you given to soaring hyperbole) the team won't be playing in October in consecutive years. So that's a bummer too. But I can't really be all that upset as the season winds down; although currently 4th in the division, most of us thought they would be sub-.500 all year. They weren't. And they were alive for a post season berth (although granted, most hope of that happening was washed away by their 7-game losing streak this month) right up to the final week.

Because of that, I will go to this last weekend with my fan-head held high. They fought. They came up short. That's life.

I would, however, like to see them sweep the Reds, because then their final record would be 86-76; since they spent most of the summer between 10-15 games over .500, it would be appropriate.

Going back to yesterday's post, one prominent name (in addition to Ryan Howard, who Pitchers Battting Eighth mentioned in the comments) I left out was Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres. In case you hadn't noticed, and because the Padres suck, you probably hadn't, Adrian his hitting .281 with 36 HR and 118 RBI this season.

He compares, statistically, favorably with AP.

Here's the kicker, however: San Diego is 15th in the NL in runs scored (630). Gonzalez has knocked in 19% of their runs. He's also scored 102. Take away the 36 for the HR he's hit, so we don't double count those:

118-36 = 82 + 102 = 184 / 630 = 29.2%. Yep, one man has either knocked in or scored over a quarter of San Diego's runs this season.

Just for fun:

AP: 184 / 753 = 24.4%
Ludwick: 174 / 753 = 23.1%
Delgado: 172 / 794 = 21.7%
Wright: 206 / 794 = 25.9%
Howard: 197 / 779 = 25.3%
Manny: 72 / 242 = 29.8% (prorated for his time with LA)

How ungodly bad would the Padres have been without Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup?

I'm Back

But this will be a short post. Gotta work in slooooowly. :)

I'm glad to see the Cardinals are still playing with a purpose. I'm sure Arizona doesn't feel the same way. Its a crippling blow they've dealt the D-Backs so far in this series. A win today for the home team, and it doesn't matter what LA does tonight. Ya think Joe Torre will send LaRussa a fruit basket as a thank you?

The Cardinals swoon earlier this month, coupled with the Dodgers' surge, has made the past week the first time St Louis wouldn't have been in first place in the NL West all season. Something for the useless trivia file.

There's been a lot of talk out there about the NL MVP. Lots of opinions, some of them informed, some not. I would break down the top 6 candidates or so this way:

- Albert Pujols. Enough said.

- Ryan Ludwick. He has had an MVP caliber year. He will suffer from being on the same team as AP, much like Rolen and Edmonds did in 2004, however his numbers, and defense, compare favorably with what Albert has put up this year. Merits serious consideration. If not the MVP, he should definitely - DEFINITELY - be comeback player of the year in the NL.

- David Wright. Plays in NY. That alone will get him votes. Knock on Wright is he sucks with RISP. I can't find a RISP stat table anywhere (AARGH!) that supports that perception, but he did stink up the joint last night against the CUBS - in the 3 innings I watched he left 4 runners on.

- Carlos Delgado. Tanked the first half of the season, assisted in getting Willie Randolph fired. Then decided to show up. Sorry, you're not MVP-caliber.

- Manny Ramirez. Tanked the first half of the season to get out of Boston. Admitted as much later. Now tearing the cover off the ball. His play for LA makes him a candidate, however I disqualify him for the same reason I wouldn't vote for Delgado.

- CC Sabathia. Single-handedly keeping Milwaukee relevant in the Wild Card race. 10-2 with the Brewers. Was 6-8, 3.83 with Cleveland, but after a disastrous first 4 starts he was 6-5 with a 2.16 ERA. Merits serious consideration.

For my money, the only 2 serious candidates in the NL are Pujols and Sabathia. This may come down to a 'who makes the playoffs' vote. If the Brewers sneak in, I don't see how you can not vote for Sabathia. He's also a serious candidate for the Cy Young. If they don't make it, well, it's a toss-up.

On Hiatus

There's no cool way to say this.

I've missed the last two United Cardinal Blogger projects, one I really wanted to do (who are the 4 Cardinals you'd like to have dinner with and why), one I Really REALLY wanted to do (top 7 Cardinal minor leaguers). I've felt like my writing has slipped somewhat; I've only got about an hour to do research and write, so everything is rushed, and I'm getting lazy. If you can be lazy when you're rushing around.

But what's really driving this is I'm at the end of another academic quarter. The coursework hasn't been difficult, but there's a lot of it. My team is doing final preps for our presentation in a week in the one class, and the other will be posting the final on 19 Sept.

What am I saying? What the title of this post implies. I'm going to take some time off to focus on my courses. I hope to be posting again before the end of the season. I probably won't post again until after 21 Sept.

All this as the Cubs roll into town for their last series of the season. Ugh.

Peaks and Valleys

From the high of watching Wainwright dominate, to the trepidation of watching Wainwright leave after 5 1/3 with back stiffness...

From the anxious pacing from watching Carpenter allow the first two men to reach, to the relief from watching Carpenter pitch out of it...

From the despair of watching Lohse struggle in August, to the appreciation of watching Lohse throw six shutout...

From the anger at watching McClellan (exhausted) scuffle again, to the hope Jason Motte brought while firing 98 MPH gas in the eigth...

To seeing my heart laying on the floor when Arizona rallied in the ninth and won.


So much for Villaneuva's gesture galvanizing the club. They've lost 5 of six since that game. They get today to lick their considerable wounds before trying again Friday against Florida.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

I opened the Post-Dispatch to read the game summary, and the photo coupled to the story features David Eckstein. I then flipped my Cardinals calendar to September. Care to guess who the featured player is for September? Yep.

As a seque, it has amused me for years the number of players that appear in the Cardinal calendar who are no longer with the team. This year that august list includes Edmonds, Rolen, the aforementioned Eckstein, and Juan Encarnacion (although the reason he's not with the team is anything but funny).

I saw the score scroll across ESPN's bottom line as 7-6 D-Backs, in the eighth or so (the inning escaped me, although it was late in the game), after sitting through what seemed to be an hour of college football scores from this weekend. Final score, as I'm sure you're aware, was 8-6 Arizona. What I didn't know until reading the game summary was the Cardinals led 5-1 through 4.

Who helped engineer this claiming of defeat from the jaws of Victory? Joel Piniero, that's who, the guy who leads the universe in 'games where I had the lead but couldn't hold it'. Jeez Joel, how do you sleep at night? How have you started 22 games but only gotten 11 decisions (the team is 11-11 in those starts)? How can you continue to cough up leads you're given? At what point does being durable (he's thrown 131 innings, which really isn't that durable but bear with me) get trumped by 'he can win games for us'?

Another stinging loss for a team that can't afford to lose right now. To add insult to injury, both Chicago and Milwaukee lost yesterday. It's probably my paranoia, but doesn't it seem what when they lose, we also lose, but when we lose, they typically win?

Not going to catch anyone with those metrics.