Good For Your Soul

I guess after enduring a tough homestand, the best thing is to go visit a team who's season has fallen apart. No one would argue this visit to Houston hasn't been a tonic for Cardinal hitters. They hung 6 runs on Wandy and 6 more on last night's starter Bazardo en route to easy wins both nights.

Their offense getting in gear is going to be important for their next series, as Colorado is playing well and is also putting up runs. Yes, they're currently playing San Diego, and hung 11 on the Padres last night, but San Diego has played better overall since the All Star break (33-31) than the .409 pace they were on before July 12. Also that series could be a preview of the NLDS, so best foot forward, as they say.

Before we all breathe a collective sigh of relief that the offense has returned - let's not forget the Cardinals have beaten up on teams under .500 (currently 62-33 against them, or a .652 pace), but are under .500 themselves against teams with winning records (27-30; they were 26-25 heading into the last homestand). So while the offensive resurgence is encouraging, I'd really like to see it continue this weekend against a playoff-caliber team.

I predicted the Cardinals would clinch in Houston, and that can still happen. However, it will require them to beat a guy (Bud Norris) who mystified them in August, and get some help from a Milwaukee team that's been beaten up as badly by the Cubs the last two days as St Louis has mauled Houston. Former Notre Dame WR Jeff Samardzija will start today for the Cubs against Chris Narveson. Samardzija got killed by the Phillies on August 12 (3 1/3, 7 ER) in his only other start of 2009. Former Cardinal farmhand Narveson has been better - in his 2 previous starts, he's thrown 8 innings allowing 3 ER. Milwaukee won both those games, although he didn't figure in either decision.

So, the magic number stands at 2. Another easy one - #2 is retired, last worn by Red Schoendienst. Back in the day, major league organizations would hold open try-outs for aspiring baseball players in the local area of the team. Red was discovered at one of these events, and debuted with the Cardinals in 1945. He eventually played 19 seasons in the Majors, most with St Louis, but he spent some time with the NY Giants and Milwaukee Braves towards the end of his career. Bob Keely wore 2 before Schoendienst. He appeared in one game in 1944 and one in 1945; he had one at bat in the majors (1945), and didn't reach base. He died in 2001.


The big news yesterday was the voiding of Wagner Mateo's contract by the Cardinals. His signing had been a big deal, both because he was a high-value prospect, and because it represented a splashy entry by the Cardinals into the Carribean player market. A $3.1 million contract to a 19-year old will turn some heads, to be sure. Not sure what voiding the contract will do, but most of it will probably be negative. Not that I fault the Cardinals for doing this; part of the conditions was that Mateo had to pass a physical, and he didn't. I'm going to assume the results of his physical (apparently taken in July) were known to the organization before now, and they've been trying to decide what to do since.

One other thing: The Post-Dispatch report implies the injury wasn't disclosed prior to Mateo signing the contract. It's always bad policy to withhold information from an employer, especially if it has large potential to come out anyway. In a physical game, why would you try to hide an injury? Makes no sense. The USN has a cute little saying, "never be the senior man with bad news". The idea is to pass the data up the chain of command so the leadership knows about problems early and can work to fix them. When something bad happens and someone tries to cover it up, it invariably blows up much worse than it would have had that individual come clean to start.

Sometimes you just don't have it

We all were shocked recently when Carp gave up 6 runs with 2 outs to Atlanta - something he hadn't done since his early years in Toronto. Last night something similar happened to Wandy Rodriguez. He couldn't control his breaking ball, and the Cardinals were able to hammer him.

The three first inning runs all came after Rodriguez retired the first 2 Cardinals. AP won't admit it - he's too much of a professional - but I'm sure he's aware of how Wandy's handcuffed him through the years (also because knuckleheads like me keep pointing it out), and the double had to be somewhat satisfying (Pujols finished 1-3 off Wandy). By the time Houston put a runner on the game was essentially over.

Two other big things out of this game:

- Mark DeRosa looked comfortable at the plate. Then again, DeRosa loves hitting at Minute Maid Park. He's hit more HR there than any ballpark he hasn't called home. If I was in the Astro front office, I might consider trying to sign him in the off-season. I thought during the Sunday night game that DeRosa had found his stroke (as I mentioned yesterday, and also why I thought the sac bunt in the ninth was a dumb play); this line in Derrick Goold's post game wrap seems to confirm that:

As Lohse altered his mechanics to compensate for his forearm, so too did DeRosa adjust his swing to protect the wrist. He tripled Friday and said that was the breakthrough swing.

If he's re-discovered his stroke, this truly becomes a fearsome lineup.

- The other is Lohse's good outing. He's been fighting his mechanics ever since getting hit by a pitch waaaay back in April. I didn't realize going into this game he hadn't won a start on the road. Lohse appeared to get both monkeys off his back in this start. Now, the Astros are not very good, so a dose of caution is still in order; if Kyle can continue making strong starts like last night's from now until the end of the season, Cardinals pitching picks up some much needed flexibility and depth. Again, they become much more dangerous in the playoffs.

One other thing - the CBS Sports game recap headline refers to the Astros as the 'fading Astros'. Are they really fading at this point? They'd been completely eliminated from the playoff chase before this series started. Wouldn't 'faded' be more accurate? 'Sunk'? 'Imploded'?


Chicago clobbered Braden Looper and the Brewers last night, 10-5, so St Louis was only able to lower their magic number by one. Magic Number Watch now stands at 3. #3 has recently been a middle infielder number, much like #4 was. As you know, currently Khalil Greene wears the number. I doubt Khalil will look back fondly at his time in St Louis from a baseball perspective, but the team seems to be giving him all the support he needs to deal with his anxiety disorder, so he should remember the team as one that tried to help. Recent past wearers of 3 include Cesar Izturis (2008), Miguel Cairo (2007), and Edgar Renteria (1999-2004).

Not the way it could have ended

Ended up watching the last 6 innings or so of last night's Cardinal/Cub game after getting home. Didn't quite end like we wanted it to.

- The Cardinal ninth baffled me. Not the Holliday call - he was clearly out of the base line and that was the correct call by the second base umpire. But after Schumaker reaches on a single, why use DeRosa to bunt him over? DeRosa had tagged the ball his previous 2 at bats (an RBI double to tie the score, and a flyball to left that Scales had to jump up to catch). Everyone knew if Lugo made it to second with one out the Cubs would walk Pujols (which they did), so that play effectively removed AP from the game.

Now folks will argue that, with Holliday on deck, this isn't as serious a tactical error as it was before the end of July, and there may be some truth to that; but for as well as Holliday has played since joining the Cardinals, he isn't the best hitter on the club. Pujols still is. I want Pujols swinging the bat in that situation.

As it turned out, Holliday got hit by a pitch, so the bases were loaded for Ludwick. Who promptly grounded into the double play. I don't know who Dan selected a the goat (I haven't looked at his post yet today), but he probably gave Goat to Mitchell Boggs; Ludwick deserves it more.

- I didn't know So Taguchi was in the Cub chain. I thought he retired after last season. Nice to see you, So.

In Memoriam of Fire Joe Morgan, some dumb things said last night during the broadcast:

- JM, when LaRussa pulled Adam Wainwright from the game: I'm disappointed he took him out there. I think you have to let him try to get the win and get to 20 wins.

Couple of things here. (a) Wainwright had already thrown 102 pitches on a hot night. Seemed appropriate to take him out after 7. (b) I know it would be nice from a milestone perspective to see Adam win 20, and I know lots of people put too much weight in the wins statistic that clearly doesn't measure pitching performance as it once did. Not to mention the fact that the Cardinals are going to the playoffs. Wainwright's now thrown 219 innings and faced 909 hitters, most in the NL. THE POINT IS TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES, NOT REACH SOME MEANINGLESS MILESTONE. LaRussa made the right decision.

- Jon Miller, in the eighth, when the Cubs had runners on with 1 out: The Cardinals can't afford to give up more runs here if they want to win.

To this my wife responded 'That is the point stupid!'. I got nothing to add there.

- JM, in the eighth, referring to Skip Schumaker: Why is he hitting leadoff? He only has 2 stolen bases all year.

He's right, Schu has only 2 steals this year (and has been caught twice). This is classic Joe Morgan. In his day the leadoff hitter was a stolen base threat, no matter what his success rate. There can't be any possible other measuring stick for selecting a leadoff hitter, can there Joe? Except the whole point of leading off the game is to get on base so your #2-5 hitters can drive you in. Scoring runs is the object of the game, right? Score more than the other guy? Then the goal is to get on base. Schumaker has the highest OBP of any Cardinal not named Pujols. Perhaps THAT'S why LaRussa has him hitting leadoff.

At any rate, the Cardinals magic number remains at 4 going into Houston. There'll be a preview up later, but with the back end of the Cub rotation starting the first 2 games in Milwaukee, I'm hopeful the Brewers can take the first two; if St Louis wins 2 of 3 from Houston, that'll do it.

Well those two games have lived up to their billing

What a way to start the weekend. Two tense games decided in the last at bat. Chicago led in one and tied the other in the top of the ninth, only to lose both.

I'm reminded of the climatic scene in The Patriot, after the Continental Army turns to flee:

Cornwallis: "Reserve into the Center."
Brit Lieutenant (quizzically): "But Sir, you've taken the field."
Cornwallis: "Now we shall take their spirits. Send the entire army over that hill and crush them. It ends today!"

Unfortunately it won't end today. Even if Wainwright beats Zambrano, the magic number will still be 2, so the Cardinals will have to clinch on the road. However, sweeping the Cubs, well, that would be a nice way to put a cherry on what's been a lousy homestand.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 4

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 1 (beat Houston 7-2)
- Houston: ELIMINATED (lost to Milwaukee)
- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

This will be the last 'eliminate rivals' item, seeing as they're all out as of today.

Who wore the number last: After Friday's win, the number stood at 6.

#6 - Do I really need to remind you, readers of THIS SITE, who wore that number last? The last guy to wear 6 before Musial? Stu Martin (1940). He was a reserve infielder who played 6 seasons for St Louis (1936-1940), then was sold by the Cardinals to the Pirates after the 1940 season. He played 2 years for Pittsburgh, then one for the Cubs. He died in 1997.

#4 - For a while, it seemed 4 would be worn by the Cardinal second basemen. However, currently Yadier Molina wears the number, and has since 2006. Before him Einar Diaz had it (2005), then Tony Womack (2004), then Fernando Vina.

UCB Stuff and magic numbers

We had a great show last night discussing the Cardinals. Dan (C70 at the Bat) and I were joined by Josh from Redbirds Row. We were also able, through some technical expertise by Dan, to play parts of my interview with :Larry Borowsky on the show. You can listen to both via the Real Audio player right over there ===>.

Last night's show is the first file, Larry's interview is the one right below it.

Tomorrow the UCB will be doing its first group project in a while, this one focused on prospects. We will present our opinions on the top 7 prospects currently in the Cardinals system. You can find a central list of the blogs participating at the UCB website.

On to serious business:

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 9 (Cubs lost to Milwaukee 9-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 3
- Houston: 2 (lost to Cincinnati 6-5)
- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

The Cardinals are finally 'single-digit midgets'. I noticed I've been slacking on the last player to wear the number list, so here's a few catch up ones:

#11 - no one's worn the number since the end of the 1998 season. Oddly, 3 guys wore the number that year, starting with Royce Clayton, who held it until being traded to Texas at the deadline for Fernando Tatis. Luis Ordaz wore it next for a while, then worked out a number trade with Tatis; Fernando finished the year wearing 11. Ordaz broke camp in 1999 and then spent most of the year in AAA. He was traded to the Diamondbacks after the 1999 season.

#10 - Obviously Tony LaRussa's held the number since becoming the manager in 1996, and his reasons for selecting it are now widely known. The guy before LaRussa with it was the unremarkable Ramon Caraballo, who played 34 games at #10 in 1995, posting a .202./.269/.323 line as a back-up second baseman. Caraballo was released after the season, and signed by the Boston Red Sox, but he never played in the majors again.

#9 - Is retired. Enos Slaughter holds the honor. His HOF page/plaque is here. His stats can also be viewed here.

Update 3:25 PM: Milwaukee beat Chicago 7-4 today. Magic number is now 8. #8 is currently Troy Glaus.

Hair on Fire Wednesday

Busy today, so we'll keep it short. If time permits, I'll post again later today.

Cards lost 2-1 to the rookie lefty. Figures. Lots of LOB again.

Magic Number Watch.

Clinch Division: 10 (Cubs won 12-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 3 (lost to Philly 5-4)
- Milwaukee: 3 (lost to Cubs 12-5)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Finally, my turn to host the UCB radio hour comes up again tonight. Dan and I will discuss all things Cardinal. Also, we hope to play portions or all of an interview I did with Larry Boroswky (formerly of Viva El Birdos) this weekend. Should be good! Look forward to hearing from you!

If you have any questions you'd like to ask us, and can't make the show, just leave them in the comments. We'll get to them.

Cards win despite Wellemeyer

We didn't learn anything new last night. Wellemeyer v.2008 is merely a passing memory, replaced by Wellemeyer v. 2009, who sucks. I didn't think it would be possible to see Todd's ERA go up last night, but he exceeded expectations and did just that.

In fairness, he hasn't pitched at all really since 30 July, so I was expecting a lack of command and early fatigue, figuring he'd be out of the game after 5 at the most. But Wellemeyer didn't really walk anyone (1 in his 4 innings), and his first pitch command better than expected (21 batters faced, 5 1-0 counts, 13 0-1 counts (10 of those were strike one looking), 3 hitters put the first pitch in play). He also only had four 3-ball counts last night, and all four were within the first 6 hitters he faced.

Not pitching from behind early in the count, not a lot of deep counts - what happened? Sounds like he was wild in the strike zone, or in other words, left a lot of pitches up and out over the plate. Wellemeyer had 4 swinging strikes all night - by the same two hitters (1 in each of Uggla's at bats, 2 in the same Cameron Maybin at bat). Other pitches Marlins swung at were either fouled off or put in play. That's wild in the strike zone.

LaRussa refused to speculate as to when Wellemeyer's next appearance would be, which based on his performance is a valid position.

The problem is, now the Cardinals are showing some cracks at the back end of the rotation. Wellemeyer hasn't been right all year, Lohse hasn't been right since getting hit by a pitch, Smoltz has shoulder tendinitis. So where does the team go from here? Hawksworth has nailed down a slot in the bullpen as the 6th/7th inning guy, so he's not an option. Boggs? Possible as the #4 guy, but that still leaves a hole at #5.

Do we dare give a start to Thompson?

I will say this, having a 9.5 game lead is a huge luxury right now. I'd not want to face these kinds of decisions only leading by 2 or 3 games.

And a quick word about Lohse. The PD is reporting today he had discomfort during and after his Saturday start, although an MRI he had Sunday was 'unexceptional'. Lohse still has 3 years remaining on a $41 million contract. Here's a radical thought: shut down Lohse for the season. He's ineffective and hasn't been able to heal - why risk more damage?

The Cardinals face a rookie left-hander today. Let's hope the offensive explosion from yesterday keeps going.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 10 (Cubs beat Milwaukee 2-0)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 4 (lost to Cincinnati 3-1)
- Milwaukee: 4 (lost to Cubs)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

That Was Less Fun Than Expected

Going into the Atlanta series, I thought their pitching could cause the Cardinals some trouble. I even went pessimistic with my predictions, saying Atlanta could win 2 of 3. But I didn't expect to get swept.

Not much to say about Friday's game. Pineiro was good, but Jurrjens was better. I remember thinking when Detroit decided to traid Jurrjens away for Renteria that the Braves had done quite well; Jurrjens looked good as a rookie in 2007, and was going to improve. He hasn't become the #2 starter I expected, yet, but he's only 23 years old, so it's not like he's over the hill or anything.

Saturday? Just frustrating. I've become so inured to the Cardinals not being on the Fox game of the week that I don't even look at the listings anymore, I just assume we'll get to watch the Mets or Yankees or Red Sox or some lousy game pitting two west coast teams. So I was somewhat surprised to turn the game on in the bottom of the fourth and see the Cardinals on. They were down 4-2 at that point.

Not seeing that it was a lazy Saturday afternoon, and that the kids had decided to take a nap (or at least remain in their respective rooms being quiet), I dozed for most of the next hour. Somehow I managed to wake up for the bottom half of each inning and watch the Cardinals strand 10000 runners on base through 8 innings.

And what a bizarre bottom of the eighth. Notwithstanding Franklin's blown save in the ninth, the Cardinals should have blown the game open in the eighth - Atlanta tried to hand them that game. First, though, proper kudos need to be given to Mark DeRosa. He caught a break on the passed ball, because McCann had a play on him at second if he doesn't double clutch the throw. The steal of third was genius. It also led the the rest of the inning; because of the steal, Bobby Cox brought the infield in, which meant that Molina's line drive was too hot for Escobar instead of an out and DeRosa was able to score the tying run.

Then the ridiculous started. Jones let's a ball get through the 5-hole. A blown flip on a double play grounder from Schumaker. A flat out miss of a tag on Schumaker going down the line, followed by LaRoche not throwing back down to second to try and get the out, giving the Cardinals the lead. AP walked intentionally. Too bad Holliday couldn't drive the final nail home, especially in light of how the ninth inning went.

I think we should be concerned about Franklin. I know he said all the right things about the extended layoff and he wasn't sharp, and he did buckle down after McCann's double gave Atlanta the lead again. Franklin not being right reshuffles the entire bullpen, and makes our shaky right-handed set-up problem that much worse. Let's hope his renewed concentration after the double is a sign of how he will pitch the rest of the season.

I have no idea what happened to Carpenter yesterday, but oof - that hurt. And Vasquez was as tough as expected on the Cardinals. Let's just move on.

I'll have a preview up later today on the Florida series (although it's already posted over at CardsClubhouse). Their pitching isn't quite the caliber of Atlanta's over the weekend, but they are starting Nolasco, a lefty rookie (first-time lefties typically make life difficult for St Louis), and Josh Johnson, so it won't get that much easier.

On to other news:

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 11 (Cubs won 2 of 3 from Cincinnati)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 6 (took 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh)
- Milwaukee: 6 (swept Arizona)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED (lost 2 of 3 to Chicago)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

UCB Fantasy Baseball Playoffs:

You may remember me, a long time ago, mentioning that several Cardinal bloggers had bandied together to form a Head-to-head fantasy baseball league. I haven't talked much about it, because my draft was soo bad I ended up with no power at all to speak of from the 5 outfielders I was playing, and I spent most of the first half of the year fighting to get out of 1oth place in a 12-team league. But, since week 9, something changed with the team; I don't know if it was Derrek Lee remembering he doesn't suck, or the acquisitions of Michael Cuddyer and the Melky Cabrera, or the fact that my pitching staff (Oswalt, Carpenter, Lackey, Greinke, Blanton) have pitched their butts off. But I haven't lost a week since Week 8 (with 2 ties). It doesn't hurt having 2 Cy Young candidates in the rotation.

Also, I got smoked by the two best teams in the league the first time through, and returned the favor the second time; I was the first team in the league to hang a loss on the best team in the division (capably managed by Pip over at Fungoes), which led to a flurry of activity by him on the waiver wire (at least, that's the story I'm sticking with).

Anyway, I didn't want to jinx it. But I managed to climb out of the second division and finish third overall in the league, behind the aforementioned Fungoes and Matt Leach, who blogs for mlb.com. Not too shabby.

I faced off against Dan over at C70 at the bat, and despite a horrendous week from my pitching, I managed to survive, winning 5-3-2. Next up? Leach's team. I got him the last time when my team was hot, so we'll see how things go this time around. No matter what, however, I won't finish worse than 4th in the playoffs, and that's cool. We came a long way, baby.

Series Preview - Atlanta

The Cardinals invite Atlanta in for their annual appearance at the stadium. St Louis took 2 of 3 from the Braves in April.

Again with the weird scheduling. Atlanta and Florida are the only remaining NL teams not to visit St Louis in 2009, but both will appear in town over the next week.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 84-57, 1st in NL Central, 11.5 games ahead of Chicago (10 on the loss side). St Louis returns from a 5-1 road trip, which saw Carpenter dominate, Pujols turn white hot, and Holliday skin his knees.

Atlanta: 72-68, 3rd in NL East, 8 games behind Philadelphia. Atlanta continues to have a pulse in the Wild Card as well, but they trail Colorado by 8.5 games, and there are three other teams they need to hurdle to get in. The Braves are a sub-500 team in regulation (62-63), but 9-5 when the game is shortened or extended. They also limp into St Louis having lost 6 of their last 7.

Pitching match-ups

11 September: Jair Jurrjens (10-10, 2.93) vs Pineiro. This is a rematch of the 27 April game, won by the Cardinals 3-2. Jurrjens went six that day, allowing 2 ER on 6 hits, striking out 2 and walking 2. Jurrjens is an ace in waiting. Atlanta acquired him from Detroit after the 2007 season for Edgar Renteria. Fastball, change-up, slider are his pitches, and he mainly throws the fastball and changeup. Jurrjens has pitched better than his 10-10 record would indicate. He strikes out about 6 hitters a game, twice as many as he walks, has a BABIP of .278 this hear and a FIP of 3.79. Jurrjens is 0-2 lifetime against St Louis in 2 career starts.

Atlanta has lost his last 3 starts, and scored a total of 4 runs in those games.

Pineiro has started to wobble a little bit since his dominating July. His ERA over his last 7 starts is 4.56, and he’s allowed an OPS of .709. In his first twenty 2009 starts, his ERA was 2.84 and the allowed OPS was .635. I think this is cause for concern. He’s also allowed a HR in 4 of his last 6 games, after allowing 3 in his first 21.

Joel is 1-1, 6.75 in 6 career appearances (3 starts) against Atlanta.

12 September: Tim Hudson (1-0, 2.19) vs Lohse. Hudson is back after Tommy John surgery, and has made 2 starts so far. He has a 3-2, 4.74 career mark in 6 starts against St Louis; his last start was August 25, 2007 in St Louis, and he lost that day 5-4. He throws everything but the kitchen sink, but features the fastball and a cutter (they account for 75% of his pitches). Of the rest, he throws the curveball/split finger/change with about equal frequency (7% or so). Of guys with 10 or more Plate Appearances against him, AP has had the most success (.412/.588/1.062). You probably could have guessed that.

This is a huge start for Lohse and the Cardinals. With the Smoltz ceiling returning to normal (around 5 IP, around 3 ER), and Pineiro starting to struggle, the Cardinals need Lohse to return to form. This will be his first start since 21 August in San Diego. We’ll just have to cross our fingers and hope he’s finally well. Depending on Pineiro’s start, of course, which will determine who’s available in the bullpen Saturday, I’d be surprised if Lohse went more than 5 innings.

Lohse is 2-1, 4.15 career against Atlanta in 6 total starts. There are a couple of Braves that have mandhandled him (min 10 PA): Chipper Jones (.556/.667/1.111), Ryan Church (.462/.500/.769), and Garrett Anderson, perhaps surprisingly (.360/.407/.600)

13 September: Javier Vasquez (12-9, 3.06) vs Carpenter. I believe this is ESPN’s Sunday night game, and should be a good one; too bad most of the country will be staring at Chicago/Green Bay on NBC. Vasquez is the seasoned vet on this staff, having started his ML career in 1994 with the Expos. He was acquired by Atlanta from the White Sox for 4 prospects last off-season. He’s a fastball/slider/curveball pitcher, but he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more curves this season than previously, and his curveball is a weapon (if I’m reading his pitch type values correctly). He is 0-1 this year against St Louis, victimized by three consecutive two-out singles in the sixth that scored 3 runs and erased a 3-2 Braves lead.

He’s had very little career success against the Cardinals, going 2-7 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 starts. He has two complete games against St Louis. Four Cardinals have more than 10 plate appearances against him: AP (.412/.412/1.118), DeRosa (.320/.393/.833), Lugo (.267/.313/.733), and Glaus (.214/.313/.813)

Statistical Oddity. Vasquez’s three longest starts (by innings) against St Louis, and both of his complete games, were in a losing effort.

Carpenter had a dominating start against Milwaukee. Some think it may not his best start this season, much less by a Cardinal (the principal difference is walks issued). Great topic to debate. Carpenter didn’t pitch against Atlanta in April – that series happened while he was on the DL. He has a winning career mark against them at 2-1, but he’s given up 18 ER, and 4 HR, in 29 2/3 innings pitched. The only NL team that’s given him more trouble is Philadelphia.

That said, the Cardinals have won the last 5 games he’s started against Atlanta, although he’s only made one start opposing the Braves since 2006 (30 July 08), and he only threw 4 innings that day – it was his first start since Opening Day 2007. Only Garrett Anderson and Nate McLouth have more than 10 plate appearances against them. McLouth is hitting a robust .083; Anderson has had slightly more success (2 doubles, HR, .846 OPS).

Prognosis/prediction. This could be a tough series. The Braves starters are solid. With Lohse trying to find his way, Pineiro struggling a little bit, and Holliday slightly nicked up, the Cardinals could struggle. Carpenter and AP being white hot will help. We’ll err on the side of caution and say St Louis drops 2 of three this weekend.

Predicted Magic Number PM 9/13: 10.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 12 (Cubs off yesterday)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston - 7 (lost to Atlanta 9-7)
- Milwaukee - 6 (off yesterday)
- Cincinnati - 2 (lost to Colorado 5-1)
- Pittsburgh - ELIMINATED

Albert Rides Shotgun For The Wagonmaker

Busy day today - AM loaded with meetings, awards and evaluations to finalize, so this will be short. I present the first ever Stan Musial's Stance haiku game summary:

Pujols twice
Wainwright resurgent
Closing on Autumn

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 12 (Cubs beat Pittsburgh 8-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston : 8 (beat Atlanta 2-1)
- Milwaukee: 6
- Cincinnati: 3 (lost to Colorado 4-3)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Other news: Holliday has an owie, DeRosa to have off-season surgery on his wrist. From the sound of it, Holliday won't miss any time, although he will be investing in bacitracin and dance lessons. DeRosa's off-season surgery has been hinted at for a while, so that's no surprise. Let's hope he gets the procedure done early in the off-season so he's ready to go come spring training (in other words, don't pull a Glaus).

Off-day today, Atlanta over the weekend.

How Badly Did We Need a Holliday?

Apparently, pretty badly.

Statistics are interesting because they can highlight trends or factoids not normally made plain to the casual fan (i.e., me). Here's my current favorite one: St Louis is 31-11 since acquiring Holliday from the A's. Here's a close second, although it qualifies more as a factoid: the Cardinals have not lost ground in the Central since taking over the outright lead in the division on August 7. Of course, it hasn't hurt they've gone 24-6 over that stretch (.800 baseball).

Trevor Hoffman is one of the best closers in baseball who, as a mostly San Diego resident, I've had the pleasure of watching pitch for most of his career. His fastball isn't what it once was (most forget he used to routinely hit 92-95 with it before the arm surgery), but that change up is still devastating. That said, he is susceptible to the long ball, which Holliday provided last night. The loss won't affect Hoffman - one doesn't accumulate 584 saves without knowing how to put a bad outing behind one - but the win will affect the Cardinals, who rightfully believe they are never out of a game, and are becoming more and more comfortable with the idea they don't need to rely solely on AP to deliver in high-leverage situations.

I'm hope the Cardinals don't face Manny Parra again this season. I may have to create the Manny Parra Effect to describe what happens to Redbird bats when he pitches or is scheduled to pitch. How else to explain a guy who's 2-1, sub-2.4 ERA against STL and 8-9, 7.49 against everyone else? Even when he leaves the game early (neck spasms, day-to-day), the Cardinals can't solve Brewer pitching.

Cardinals look to win the series today.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 13 (Cubs beat Pirates 9-4)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 8
- Houston - 8 (Lost to Atlanta 2-1)
- Cincinnati - 5 (Lost to Colorado 3-1)
- Pittsburgh - ELIMINATED

Current Cardinal Brendan Ryan sports #13. Before him the immortal Sidney Ponson stretched the number across his prodigious backside (2006).

Other news:

- Cardinals are reportedly very interested in bringing Mark DeRosa back for next year. Money quote:

"Recognizing where we are, the thought is we'll talk about it and that we're still hopeful that he's someone we could sign and bring back," Mozeliak said. "He's a very valuable person to this club."

Given his reputation as a leader on whatever club he plays for (as reported in various media stories about what's wrong with the Cubs, as well as ancedotal conversations with people having insight into the Cubs locker room), I view this as a good move.

- Rasmus is suffering from a sore heel/achillies tendon. This sounds like plantar fascitis to me. Granted, I'm not a doctor, and the media reporting on his injury is probably purposefully vague, but left heel/foot pain and a sore achillies plagued me earlier this year; when I went to the podiatrist, he diagnosed plantar fascitis, and prescribed shoe inserts (which, incidentally, have helped). So I'm willing to bet that's Rasmus' problem too. It didn't bother me when I was hitting, but it did when I pushed off to chase flyballs, etc, in the OF.

- Lohse to rotation, Boggs to bullpen. Came up in the comments yesterday. Boggs pitched much better his last time out against Pittsburgh, and was serviceable in his previous start vs Milwaukee, so he's not being shifted due to a lack of performance. I think LaRussa wants to see Lohse pitch to determine his availability and effectiveness going into the playoffs. This is a sensible and rational move. A healthy Lohse, pitching like he did last season and in April 09, is a big asset and a dangerous #3/4 starter - more so than anyone else the Cardinals can run out there, including Smoltz (more on him in a moment). The team needs to know what they've got with Lohse going forward in 2009. I think Lohse will make 4 starts the rest of the year and then we'll see what the team does in the playoffs.

- Smoltz's line yesterday - 5 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. We talked earlier about his first two starts being aided by the weak lineups he was facing. Against a good hitting team his last 2 starts, he's given up 3 ER in each start (it just happened to be the same team). This is the level of performance we should expect to get from a John Smoltz start at this point in his career. The problem is each of his starts taxes the bullpen, in that they need to get up to 12 outs.

Now granted, the Cardinals have thrown the fewest relief innings in the NL this season (372.0 -next lowest is San Francisco at 386.2), so bullpen burnout isn't as serious an issue as it may be for the Dodgers, but in the short series playoff format, burning out the pen in one game can hamstring LaRussa for subsequent games, and potentially bring on unfavorable matchups or cost the team a game. So I believe Smoltz will be used exclusively in relief once the post season starts, even if Lohse remains lousy these next 3 weeks.

Masterful

I remember, not so long ago, ESPN broadcast baseball games all day on Labor Day. In fact, I remember watching the Cardinals/Astros game on Labor Day 1996, which was (a) a great game, (b) a game the Cardinals won, and (c) when I knew the Cardinals would win the NL Central that year.

Thanks to the first weekend of CollegeFootball now extending from Friday to Monday, as sponsors continue to grovel at the altar of Ba'al - WHOOPS, I mean The Almighty Dollar - there was no baseball on TV today locally. Except Padres/Giants. Whoopee.

So I'm limited to seeing the score crawl across the screen. 3-0 Cardinals doesn't tell one much, other than the Cards won. Then the line comes up - 'Carpenter - CG, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K' - and I think, wow. That's fantastic, and will certainly help my UCB Fantasy League team in the playoffs (sorry Dan, it's not your year).

In an unrelated story, Carlos Pena breaking two fingers today pretty much ends my chances of winning my work rotisserie league. I was in second, and closing, going into today. CC Sabathia pitches for the team I'm chasing. Coincidence? I think not!

I read the game summary, and was floored. 99 pitches? Two balls hit OUT OF THE INFIELD the entire game against him? My gosh, that's incredible. Carpenter has thrown only one other 1-hitter, a memorable game against his original team, the Blue Jays. He had a certain motivation in that game - he was healthy, Toronto kinda gave up on him - and he dominated them. This game? Carpenter proved, again, how good he is this season.

I just wish I could have seen it.

And again, people who think Lincecum is a slam-dunk to win the Cy Young in 2009 aren't really paying attention. That's no disrespect to Tim Lincecum, but an acknowledgement of how good Chris Carpenter has been this year.

So, the Cards inch closer to their first playoff appearance since winning the whole thing 3 years ago. Let's go to the tote board:

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 14 (Cubs beat Pittsburgh 4-2)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 10
- Houston: 10 (Beat Philadelphia 4-3)
- Cincinnati: 7 (Lost to Colorado 4-3)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

I've adjusted my numbers from the last post due to a math error on my part. Based on these new numbers, the Cubs victory over Pittsburgh eliminates the Pirates from the divisional race. But, we have a nice parting gift: they're still alive for the Wild Card.

Smoltz vs Manny Parra tomorrow. Parra's pitched better against St Louis then he has vs the rest of the league, and the Brewers beat Smoltz in his last start.

Cardinals rest everybody, push Pirates to the brink

You know LaRussa sat everyone when AP is available to pinch hit in the tenth inning. And AP said all the right things at the post-game conference after launching the winning HR deep into the Pittsburgh night. But you know that blast came with an extra amount of satisfaction for him, given that Capps had hit him with a pitch the last time they faced each other.

Although the Cardinals rested most of their regulars, that shouldn't take away from the effort 'Der' Olhendorf turned in yesterday. Without the error in the sixth inning, he might have won this game 1-0. Four hits and 11 K's over eight innings is a fantastic effort. I knew he had pitched well in his previous 2 starts at home, but I didn't go far enough back to realize how dominant he'd been at home this season.

And give Mitchell Boggs credit. For a guy most talking heads (and the Cardinals in-dugout staff, from all indications) thought didn't have it to get deep into games, Boggs' seven inning effort was at least an indication he may have what it takes to stay at the ML level in the rotation. His Washington start was servicable, this one was better.

Cards go for the sweep today. LA won last night, so St Louis also remains tied for best record in the league (81-56).

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 17 (Cubs won yesterday 5-3).

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 13 (lost 3-2 to San Francisco)
- Houston - 13 (beat Philadelphia 5-4)
- Cincinnati - 10 (beat Atlanta 3-1)
- Pittsburgh - 2

17 is Dizzy Dean's number. View his statistics here. His HOF plaque can be seen here.

Cardinals swamp Pirates, tie for best record in NL

Well Adam Wainwright didn't burnish his Cy Young credentials last night, but given his sustained superior performance these past 2 months, I think he's due a hiccup, don't you?

He did notch his ML leading 17th win which, given the way the voting tends to go, may have helped his case out anyway.

Thanks to the Padres shutting out LA 2-0, and the Phillies being shut out by Houston 7-0, St Louis passed Philadelphia and is even with LA for best record in the league, with 26 games to go.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 18

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 15
- Houston - 14
- Cincinnati - 11
- Pittsburgh - 4

New feature: I will highlight the last Cardinal to wear the uniform number of their magic number each day. Would you believe no Cardinal has worn #18 in 13 years? The last - Luis Alicea, for the 1996 NL Central Champs. It was his last year as a Cardinal. He played for another six years, all in the AL (1 with the Angels, 3 with Texas, the last 2 with KC). Alicea is currently the first base coach for the NY Mets.

Finally, my long month of travel is over, so I should be at the computer more often as the season winds up to the 2009 Playoffs. If you've missed my distinctive writing style, fear not: the nonsense and sarcasm will be front and center these next few weeks.