Rumors, Arrests, and Whatnot

Been an interesting week for rumors, no?

First, Matt Holliday was offered a contract for about $15 million per, 5 years. Then it became 8 years. Then 8 years at $16M per. Now it's back to 5 years, but still $16M per. And today ESPN Insider contains a report he's drawing interest from the Orioles.

I'm having a hard time imagining Holliday with the Orioles. Not saying Camden Yards is a bad place to play, or the people of Baltimore are somehow lesser humans than the rest of us; although they did take away the Browns. Even that, I guess, could be considered a good thing depending on your point of view. It's just that Baltimore has a lot of young outfielders on the roster already - Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Felix Pie - under cost-effective control for a while still. Baltimore needs a third baseman and those guys who throw strikes and get people out. Plus, as I mentioned last night on the UCB Hour, AL teams likely remain a little leery of Holliday's bat in their league, given how he struggled in Oakland the first half of 2009.

So I think this becomes nothing other than "more posturing" by Holliday's representation.

What is interesting is the lack of rumor out there regarding other teams most thought might make a run at Matt, like the Yankees, Mets, and Angels. I don't believe a guy with Holliday's skill isn't in demand with teams other than the Cardinals, but you wouldn't know it based on the RUMINT out there.

The other big news item this week revolves around David Freese's drinking. Or rather, his drinking and driving. David, arrested for DWI, reportedly blew a 0.232 BAC, 45 minutes after his arrest. David stands 6 foot 2 inches tall and weighs 220 pounds. If I remember correctly, the story reported David admitting to drinking 7 beers. I don't know the time frame; let's assume from 8pm to 2am (he was arrested at 2:4am). That's 6 hours. The chart below shows BAC based on number of drinks and body weight.

OK. Twelve drinks would give an average 220 pound man a BAC of .205. The body burns approximately .015 alcohol per hour, and his BAC was taken approximately 1.5 hours after his last drink. If he'd had 12 drinks, his BAC should have been (.205 - (.015 x 7.5)) = .0925. It was close to three times that value. Which means (a) he drank for less than 6 hours, and/or (b) he had more than 7 beers, and more than 12 drinks.

I'd say David Freese has a drinking problem. Especially since it's recently come to light he was cited for public intoxication while in the Padre minor league system.

I have two thoughts on this. First, I'm glad to see the Cardinals and Freese have decided David needs professional help, and taken steps to provide that. Second, seeing as this becomes the fourth substance abuse issue to hit the Cardinals in the last 2 years, they club has a problem. And they need to aggressively move to squash it.

No reasonable person would recommend the club can David Freese, or deny him a shot at the everyday third baseman job. He didn't (luckily, I know) hurt anyone driving drunk. We will probably not know the full details of what the club does, but I wouldn't be surprised (and frankly expect) he'll pay a fine imposed by the club, and be 'asked' to perform some community service, like talking to high school students, something like that, in addition to whatever John Law throws his way.

And on that sober note, this will probably be my last post until after Christmas. Should some large story develop between now and 31 December, like Holliday signs with St Louis or signs somewhere else, or they pry Cliff Lee from the Mariners, I'll put some thoughts up here. There is a UCB topic coming up - top 5 Cardinal stories of 2009 - that's collectively to be posted 31 December, and I'll be involved in that.

And there may be a story of an empty stocking here on Christmas Eve.

But until the calendar starts to turn, to echo the Christian tradition my ancestors bequeathed me, Peace to You and Yours, and a very Merry Christmas.

[update] I fixed the formatting issues. Sorry about that.

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday

Here in status-symbol land....

If there has ever been a more apt description of Southern California, I've yet to hear it.

Despite my misgivings, and an attempt to turn American U into the first real Cinderella of the tournament (a role currently filled by Cleveland State), Villanova has advanced into the Sweet 16. Boy they looked good against UCLA yesterday. That's the best I've seen them play all year.

The possibility of a Xavier/Villanova regional final is still very much alive (let's go X today vs Wisconsin), which will initiate a 'border war' of sorts in my family. Here's hoping...


I've neglected the Cardinals for, oh, about two weeks. There is a good reason for this. On Friday 20 March I defended my Masters Thesis as the last hurdle before getting the degree conferred on me. Despite the fact that my Professor blew a sizable hole in our presentation - we did, in retrospect, a poor job explaining the data manipulation we performed to arrive at the conclusion we did - I think it will be good enough. So as you might imagine, prepping for that event, as well as a final presentation and exam in my other class (both of which went much better - aced the presentation, 98 out of 101 on the final), has been all-consuming lately.

But that's all out of the way now. Back to what's REALLY important.

There've been some interesting developments in camp this week.

Ludwick appears to have re-found his confidence, and his approach at the plate. The Grand Slam he hit yesterday is the latest good sign from him. With Ludwick's big bat back, AP has protection, and this club becomes much more dangerous.

Mather's 0-19 slump has not gone unnoticed, which is why David Freese started yesterday at third. A recent UCB topic asked us to predict the 25 man roster on Opening Day. All of us respondents had Mather penciled in at third. That looks to be in jeopardy. If Freese can hit, and Mather continues to struggle, don't be surprised to see Freese starting at third on 6 April. This makes Mozeliak look really intelligent for dumping Edmonds on the lowly Padres for Freese; we turn an aging, physically breaking down CF into a young 3B prospect who steps in for an injured Glaus the very next year. High marks for Mo on that one.

McClellan is getting lit up. This isn't good. He's one of the relative assurances in the bullpen when the Cardinals break camp. Based on his breakout season last year, most of us had him slotted for the high leverage stuff, and possibly the eighth inning as the set-up guy. But he's struggling. Current camp chatter has Motte as the closer and Franklin returning to his eighth inning set up role. McClellan should still make the team - there aren't a lot of good options to replace him from the right side (Boggs? I think not) - but his struggles are cause for a lot of concern. I wonder if his 'be ready to start in case Carpenter breaks down' spring hasn't adversely affected his preparation to pitch in relief.

Speaking of Carpenter, there's a great article about him in today's Post Dispatch. It's got to be tough to have to keep fighting back from injury, and to deal with the fact that your body is a fragile thing now and may betray you at any moment, on any pitch. But Carpenter's spring continues to exceed all expectations, and I for one remain hopeful he will return to his 2005 form this season. OK, not necessarily win the Cy Young, but win 15 games or more. Jason LaRue's comments in the above linked article only serve to solidify my impression that Carp's back, and is going to have a good year.

The article also clears up, at least for me, why Carp is in the #4 starter spot to begin the year - it gets him two starts against the Cubs early in the season. I am statistically challenged this early in the morning, but I believe Carp has had lots of success against the Cubs in his career - which would explain the matchup for such a critical series early in the year.

Enough for now. Enjoy your sunday. If you decide to play any Monkees today, think of me, who will be chasing a pair of 'monkeys' around the house all day.