Where's DeRosa? (and other ideas for the defense)

One of the reasons the Cardinals exceeded last season’s expectations was superior hitting and fielding. They stayed in the race even though their pitching was decidedly average. The team ranked fourth in the league in runs scored, and second in OPS. Defensively, they were third and fourth, respectively, in the NL in UZR and UZR/150. The biggest driver for their offensive success was the OF, which led baseball in OPS; one of their defensive drivers was vastly improved infield defense across the board, with Troy Glaus and Cesar Izturis having Gold Glove caliber seasons.

This year the team has experienced a significant drop off in both areas, despite improving overall in pitching. They are ninth in fielding (UZR and UZR/150). The stack up sixth in the league in runs scored, but eighth in OPS. And the outfield? They left their potency in 2008 (13th in OPS). They have been hurt by free agency (Izturis left for Baltimore), injury (Glaus), and social anxiety disorders.

Something needed to be done, so the team went out and got Mark DeRosa. His 13HR and 50RBI in Cleveland make him second on the Cardinals in both to Albert, so he’s going to play every day. But where?

I took a look at the Cardinals fielders, based on starters only, through Monday’s games. Here’s a listing of who’s started where, and what their UZR/150 numbers are, for the first 78 games of the year.

From this list, several folks are either in AAA or on the DL. So we remove them from the list.

Now we begin to understand why Thurston’s played a lot of third base this season. To spice things up, and because baseball isn’t just about defense, let’s add in each player’s OPS for 2009.

Granted, the small sample size in terms of games started hurts the statistical validity of the analysis, but some interesting things jump out.

- How far the mighty (read: the OF offensive) have actually fallen in 2009. This team will not contend for the playoffs unless it starts getting better production from all three outfield positions.

- Skip Schumaker has the second-best (less DeRosa) OPS on the club among guys who can play the outfield – better than Ludwick, Ankiel, and Duncan. So why is he still playing second?

- Joe Thurston’s OPS is about 40 points lower than Schumaker, but the swing in defensive ability is 25 on the UZR scale. Based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Schumaker has been spectacularly average this season (-0.1), as has Thurston (0.3). Thurston gets the nod for his defense.

- Ludwick’s WAR (0.7) is more valuable than Ankiel (0.4), although like 2B the difference is negligible. Ludwick is the better hitter to this point, although Ankiel’s LF defensive numbers jump out, most likely due to the small sample size. Would Ludwick be able to play LF and approach Ankiel’s defensive prowess? Likely.

- Chris Duncan? His big bat (.734 OPS is third in the OF) is overshadowed by his lousy glove (-8.9). He’s WAR is also spectacularly average (0.1), which for this analysis sends him to the pine.

- There really was a huge hole at 3B defensively, and there still is. DeRosa's bat helps, but he's not the answer with the glove.

Based on all this, some suggestions:

- Start Thurston at 2B, and close that hole.

- Start Ryan at SS, and leave him there.

- Start Ankiel, Schumaker, and Rasmus across the outfield. However, LaRussa should strongly consider moving Ludwick to LF, keep his bat in the lineup, and bench Ankiel.

- DeRosa is the best of the team’s current options at third.

Not mentioned anywhere here is Khalil Greene. He should be shut down for the season. He showed lots of improvement playing a bad KC team, but if his 0-16 stretch after that returned him to the depths of depression his mental issues won't be fixed with another 15-day DL stint. He needs professional help, and apparently intensive professional help. Best wishes and Godspeed to Khalil.

Other than the transcendent Albert Pujols, this team struggles mightily to score runs. They can’t afford to give away runs with sub-standard defense anymore. Once DeRosa’s wrist is healed, the starting lineup should reflect the best possible opportunity to win every night. That means the lineup should look something like this:

Schumaker CF
Rasmus RF
Pujols 1B
DeRosa 3B
Ludwick LF/Molina C
Molina C/Ankiel LF
Ryan SS
Thurston 2B
Pitcher’s spot

Obviously LaRussa will mix/match based on pitcher handed-ness and success/failure of his players against specific hitters. But, in my opinion, the base lineup from which all changes are made should be the one above.

Comments welcome.

Transactions, and the United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour

In no particular order, at least, not in the order of the title.

Great discussion today over on the United Cardinal Blogger Talkradio show. We spent the better part of an hour dissecting the MLB draft's first 2 days (and 23 rounds), then touched on a variety of topics. Wednesdays at 1930 PDT (7:30 pm for those of you in the military). If you haven't checked us out, you should. There's a dial-in number for commenting, as well as a chatroom for discussion/questions.

I am probably going to be hosting the show every other Wednesday starting 17 June; if not hosting, then calling in. You are cordially invited to call in and/or chat during those shows. If your voice would shatter glass, or you have a deep philosophical issue with chat boards, email me your questions/comments at stanmusialsstance@yahoo.com. I will do my best to get your questions on the air (so far, I'm batting 1.000 in that category).

The Cardinals designated Blaine Boyer for assignment on 4 June, and he was claimed by Arizona 9 June. Boyer was out of minor league options, so he couldn't have been sent down. There are some discrepancies as to what actually happened to Boyer; some sites report he was DFA'd, others that he was placed on waivers. The waiver placement makes more sense as he was claimed by Arizona; otherwise, AZ would either have to trade someone to St Louis to get him, or wait until his unconditional release and sign him.

If he was placed on waivers, that's simply a case of the Cardinals trying to sneak someone through and getting burned. If he was actually DFA'd, then we gave Brian Barton to Atlanta for nothing. Why? Boyer didn't exactly tear it up in St Louis; before his 5 inning, 1 earned run outing against the Reds on 3 June, which lowered his ERA by a full run, he had appeared in 14 games, had an ERA of 5.56, a WHIP of 1.24, and a WPA of -0.22. Actually his WPA got slightly worse after the Reds game. It makes me wonder why the Cardinals acquired a guy who made exactly 3 high leverage appearances (7th inning or later, ahead/behind by less than 3 runs) in 6 weeks.

Questions surrounding that transaction pale in comparison to those surrounding Khalil Greene. Greene was brought in to replace Cesar Izturis, who hit .263/.319/.309 mostly in the 9-hole. Prognosticators predicted Greene to be a significant upgrade with the bat over Izturis. Additionally, Greene's defensive reputation indicated he was probably not as good as Izturis, but it was a small drop-off between the two.

In his time at shortstop, Izturis was worth 11.3 runs (based on baseball-reference.com's Rtot/yr metric). In 551 chances at shortstop, he committed 11 errors.

Greene in 2009? .200/.287/.295, hitting mostly seventh in the order. Not enough data to calculate Rtot/yr. 130 chances, 7 errors.

By all measures so far, Greene is a significant drop-off from Izturis.

Then the issues with the anxiety disorder surfaced. And the questions on what the Cardinals front office knew about Greene's health.

Paul DePodesta, who is, I believe, a special assistant to the Vice President for Baseball Operations with the San Diego Padres, keeps a blog, in which he discusses various hot topics of the day. Recently I asked him if the Padres had any indication of Greene's anxiety condition when he was with the team. DePodesta did not answer, at least, he hasn't answered to date, which doesn't surprise me; it's a sensitive question.

However, I have a co-worker who's nephew plays for the Chicago Cubs. Actually plays in the majors. Probably the closest I'll get to greatness (I also had a buddy at a previous Navy command who played college ball with a current member of the Padres), at least, the closest I'll get until my sons get drafted #1 in consecutive MLB drafts (go boys - you're my retirement plan). A recent conversation with the co-worker turned to Khalil Greene, and he didn't seem surprised Greene's health issues had popped up. It was implied he had arrived at that conclusion based on conversations with his nephew.

(He also said Mark DeRosa was a vocal leader in the Cubs locker room, and they miss that leadership, but that's neither he nor there.)

Let's assume what he said is true. I ask a couple of casual questions in a work place conversation and find out Greene's anxiety disorder might have been known outside the Padre organization months before he's traded to St. Louis. How is it possible the Cardinal front office had no indication Greene was sick? Those guys research players and make deals for a living. I am to investigative journalism what Mr. Magoo is to visual acuity.

Greene got a physical before the deal was finalized, right? Rumors persist he's a cutter. How did he explain those scars away? Did the Dr. just not notice? I've blogged previously about some of the work the medical staff for the Cardinals has done, and how it's suspect (Scott Rolen's shoulder, Mark Mulder's shoulder, etc). Is this another case of sloppy work?

If the Padres withheld this information they should be taken to task for it. Using the old Realtor line of 'you didn't ask, so I didn't tell you' doesn't fly. If the Cardinals didn't do their 'due diligence' in investigating what happened with him last year, and verifying his mental and physical health, well, I hope that failure is duly reflected in their Christmas bonuses.

Best of luck to Khalil Greene in conquering whatever demons he's fighting. Pragmatically, however, at this point, DeWitt's pissed away $6.5 million dollars because his medical/personnel acquisition staff were asleep at the switch.

San Diego SABR meeting - 24 Jan 09

There hasn't been much said on this site about the San Diego SABR branch that I am a part of. That's because in trying to complete my Masters (which will FINALLY finish 1 Apr), I've really pared down on the things I do outside of work, so I have enough time to complete the coursework. This has put a crimp in my SABR style, to the point where I went to last January's meeting and haven't been to a single function since.

Which has made my life poorer as a result.

However, the clouds parted long enough this weekend for me to attend most of our Winter Meeting, which was Saturday. On the agenda, in addition to the normal research presentations, was a question and answer period with Merv Rettenmund, Major League baseball player and coach, and Warren Miller, Director of Media Relations for the Padres. I was able to stay for all of Mr. Rettenmund's comments, but not for Mr. Miller, which was unfortunate, because I had some questions I wanted to ask him. Maybe some other time.

Because Mr. Rettenmund was the Padres hitting coach until 31 Aug 2007, and therefore had some insight into Khalil Greene, I was really looking forward to hearing him speak. Some interesting things that he offered during his 45 minutes with us (NOTE: These aren't exact quotes unless so indicated, rather, my interpretation and paraphrasing what was said):

- A long, slow swing means you're probably a good fastball hitter, not a good breaking ball hitter (I always thought it was the opposite).

- Older generations of hitters might have gotten 8000 minor league at bats; now you're lucky to get 800. The number of broken bats we see may be due to players not having taken enough swings to really learn how to hit.

- On inside pitches, don't shift your body to get your shoulder out of the way, get your hands through sooner (I've been shifting my body. Good tip)

- There is no such thing as 2 strike hitting. What can you do? Get ready earlier, swing slower, get to the ball? Hitting's all about timing.

- Choking up makes no sense with today's lighter bats. Players 50 years ago using 35-40 oz bats, you could choke up and have some bat left. Now, you choke up and have what, 20 oz? You got no bat left.

- Hardest parks to hit in: Comerica, old Arlington Stadium in Texas, Oakland Alameda, and Petco. He loved to hit in Tiger Stadium. He REALLY likes the new ballpark in St Louis.

- Petco: DEAD in Apr/May. When the weather heats up, the ball jumps better. You can hit it out to CF if it's to straightaway CF. Wind will knock it down in the gaps. RF - that's ridiculous.

- He likes Khalil Greene - called him one of the smartest ballplayers he's ever worked with.

- Didn't have much good to say about the current state of the Padres. They are a bad team (99 losses last year, that's no secret) with a bare farm system. He wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres trade Peavy (that's the worst kept secret in the league) and Adrain Gonzalez for prospects (that's interesting, and makes sense).

- Being a good hitter is all about timing, not so much mechanics. Getting ready at a good pace.

- Tony Gwynn thought the extra weight he put on gave him better balance at the plate.

- He had a lot of interesting things to say about hitting. Don't hack, have a plan. Look for a certain pitch at a certain speed in an area. When you get it, hit it. Count doesn't matter so much. He stated that lefties were high-ball hitters and righties low-ball hitters, but that's shifted 180 degrees the last 20 years.

- Greene can't hit a breaking ball. He had positive things to say about Hal McRae, and that Greene needed a change of scenery, but he still can't hit a breaking ball.

- You hit a breaking ball with your eyes. If you see a guy swinging at a breaking ball while looking at the centerfield camera he's got no shot.

- He things the big clubs draft too many players, because there aren't enough teams for them all to play on (this was interesting also. Too many guys splitting time at positions to get into games, so no one gets enough at bats or reps to really improve. He believes you get better by playing the game regularly, and I agree).

- Not a fan of players taking a lot of BP from coaches, because it doesn't simulate a game.

- MLB players suck at running the bases. Quote: ".220 hitters aren't on base enough to work on it."

All in all, a great 45 minutes. Did nothing to assuage my misgivings about Greene, though.

Another One Bites the Dust

Just a quick note before my hellacious day starts.

Troy Glaus is having surgery to fix a nagging shoulder ailment from last season. Complete details are here. Affected shoulder?

His right shoulder.

His throwing shoulder.

While today's report states this is a muscle tear in the muscle holding his shoulder to his chest (you know, the one helping prevent his arm from falling off or at least dangling at an obnoxious angle), and not the labrum, this is serious.

So serious, that in 24 hours the estimate of the amount of time he'll miss went from the first 2 weeks of the season, to a month, to 5 weeks, to 5 weeks being called "extremely optimistic".

A clean MRI after the season, and now a torn muscle in his chest. There are two possibilities:

a) The guy who read the MRI in October is the same bonehead who read my skull X-ray in 2004 and concluded I didn't have a broken jaw (which I actually did; try eating for 3 weeks when it hurts to bite a scrambled egg. MOTRIN = GOOOOD) ; OR

b) he hurt himself during his off-season work routine.

a) would further reinforce the widely held perception the Cardinals Medical staff commutes to work together in a Clown Car. b) is bad luck.

Either way, the projected left side of our infield now consists a third baseman who will miss at least a month, and a shortstop who is guaranteed to miss a month when completes his annual 'gotta break a finger, but which one?' tasker. Great.

David Freese was floated as a potential replacement for Glaus. I guess we'll see how well Mo did when he traded Edmonds away (all reports indicate this was a steal of a deal, BTW).

Eckstein's a Padre

David Eckstein has signed a 1 year, $850K deal with the Padres, apparently to play second base, as reported by mlb.com (among others). On the one hand, good for David. On the other hand, as a casual Padre observer (mostly because I get bombarded with San Diego Padre news since I live in San Diego) it doesn't make sense, since Edgar Gonzalez had a good year with the bat in 2008 (one of the few Padres who did) in about 4 months of work, and he demonstrated some competency at the bag.

You could stretch the truth and say the Cardinals traded Eckstein for Greene (ignoring the reality of Eckker playing for Toronto and Arizona last year), which is a net upgrade in range and power for us. And a commensurate loss of a leadoff hitter and OBP guy.

Whoo Hoo.

Renteria to the Giants

2 years, $18.5 mil.

$9.25 mil per year.

Well, they wouldn't pay him that much in 2004, so that explains why he didn't come back to St Louis.

Khalil Greene at SS. BLEEECH.

Khalil Greene to the Cardinals?

Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.

Greene has never played a full season for the Padres, breaking a variety of fingers on both hands either while playing in the field or punching water coolers. He had one good year in 2007. His numbers are pedestrian other than that.

I'd rather have Renteria. Or even have Izturis return.

Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.
Dumb.

Greene's a bum.