Reyes to AAA and other randomness

I find it mildly surprising that Anthony Reyes was optioned to AAA on Sunday. Actually I find it very surprising.

The Cardinals have scored, on average, 2.11 runs per start in support of Reyes. Now unless your name contains a Gibson, Koufax, or Drysdale in it, that's not enough run support to be successful. Additionally, he's gotten LESS support than good ol' Kip Wells (who, to be fair, has only earned 2.76 runs on average per start) but his ERA is better (6.08 to 6.20). Why not option Wells?

(strange interlude - I realize that comparing these two is like trying to decide whether to call it poop or BM. Either way you're talking about shit.)

Do the Cardinals really think that sending Reyes down AGAIN will help straighten him out? He's been on the yo-yo string for the past 2 years, and from where I sit he hasn't gotten any better. He's young; this is a bad team; what's the harm in letting him learn from the school of hard knocks? Jeremy Bonderman lost 19 back in 2003; most folks consider him a pretty good pitcher now (I consider him the ace of that staff, but my opinion is colored by the fact that he pitches for my rotisserie team). Maybe he'd be a little more comfortable if he wasn't constantly checking his locker to see if there's a plane ticket for Memphis stuck in there.

Or perhaps he's constantly racking up frequent flyer miles because he frustrates the hell out of LaRussa and Duncan, and they're trying to teach him a lesson. I don't know.

Other random thoughts:
- I'm tired of playing hot teams. I want to be the hot team for a while.
- Thanks to the Nationals for returning Cardinal Nation to reality following the sweep of the Pirates.
- Did you notice the Pirates are currently in second in the division? Of course, they're 5 under...
- Rolen, Edmonds, and AP start to show signs of life, and Molina breaks his wrist. Out 4-6 weeks. Wow. Brian Esposito was called up to take his place.

That's it for today.

Fantasy update - Week 9

Well, it's decision time.

I've posted my fantasy roster in the margin to the right, because I KNOW my reader(s) were dying to see it. At any rate, after mucho tinkering (and many dirty looks from the wife) I left my roster alone for almost 2 weeks - and amazingly zoomed into first place in the league! Lassiez-faire works!

But not learning from my success, I've begun to tinker again. Mostly because I need more saves (I'm currently 7th in the league with 14). I have arguably the best closer in the AL right now, Jonathan Paplebon, on my roster; trouble is, Boston blows everybody out, so he doesn't get to pitch much in a save situation. Last night he threw a scoreless inning... in a 10-6 game....because HE NEEDED THE WORK.

So I picked up ex-Padre Aki Otsuka off waivers. He's the Rangers set-up man (closer: Eric Gagne). This is the second time that Aki has appeared on my roster. The first time, I used him as trade leverage to pry CC Sabathia from a competitor (as well as Jorge Posada and Milton Bradley - of course, at the time I didn't anticipate Posada leading the league in hitting). I really needed the wins (I had 6 through 5 weeks). Worked out great for me.

Aki will be a closer option for me and should get save opportunities - I don't trust Gagne's health, and expect he'll break down at least one more time this year.

I now have a glut of pitching - including Duchscherer (DL), Phil Hughes (DL), Jon Lester (DL), and Dice K - someone has to go. Actually some 3 will have to go eventually. For now, there's one roster spot for 2 guys.

If you're reading this, you're either family, I paid you to leave a comment (so I don't appear to be toiling in anonymity), or you follow the Cardinals. Remember Izzy's hip issues last year? 10 blown saves, never could get the extension he needed to throw the curveball or keep the fastball down, was shut down in Sept? Duchscherer has an arthritic hip. He's not the same pitcher he was last year (All-Star). He'll be dropped because I don't believe his 6+ ERA is worth the couple of saves I could get from him. Aki will replace him on the roster.

Since it appears Dice K won't miss a start due to the stomach flu, and because he leads the league in wins (7), I'll move him back into the active roster. Most likely casualty? Mike Maroth. He's been a stud (3-0) in wins, although not in ERA; but someone needs to get cut, Byrd and Carmona are hot, Sabathia, Bonderman, and Garland are keepers, so Maroth loses out. I feel bad about this, but that's the business.

The last decision concerns Howie Kendrick. He's 2 for 10 so far after coming back off the DL, and I have until 6 Jun to get him back into the lineup or the computer will drop him automatically. Here's the conundrum: I was going to drop Pedroia, but he's hot and hitting .275 for the year. I thought about dropping Gordon, but he appears to have turned the corner. So now what? Either Hill or Pedroia will get cut, but I can't figure out who. Too bad Kendrick isn't eligible for the OF; that would be a no-brainer (cut Adam Lind).

Have an opinion? Feel free to voice it below. I'd be interested.

Can't keep my mouth shut

I've got work - real work - to do today, as I returned from a week of leave on Thursday morning, and I should be doing that instead of this.

However, this decision by the Hancock family really bothers me.

Brian Burwell, who I have had occasion to disagree with (especially when he defends Barry Bonds and lampoons Mark McGwire), actually posted a good opinion article on this subject.

Allow me to pile on.

I was a bar regular once. I hope your life never devolves to the point that you find solace on a bar stool. However, there is a fraternity-like atmosphere that exists amongst the regulars. You look forward to seeing them; they become your extended family. The bar tenders are part of that family; they know your name and what you're having. I will admit to enjoying walking into my bar, having the gent (or lady) tending that night nod hello, then going and pouring my drink for me (if you care, mine was MGD in a bottle).

Which brings me to my point - bartenders TAKE CARE OF THEIR REGULARS. If Josh Hancock was a regular at Shannon's restaurant, as we are now led to believe, they would DEFINITELY have tried to pursuade him to take a cab home. I guarantee it. The folks working the bar at my place did it for me on more than one occasion. My fellow regulars would tell me to take a cab when I had too much - again, they're your family.

At my bar, one of the regulars hosted a Christmas Eve party for some friends/family (read: other bar regulars). As I was dating his roommate at the time, I went. He, predictably, got drunk, continued drinking after the party broke up, passed out on a couch in the garage (they had turned the garage into a party den) in the wee hours while smoking a cigarette, and set the house on fire - starting with himself and the couch he was laying on. The emergency workers don't know how he survived - but he did. During his recovery, the bar held at least one (and I think more) 'pass the hat' events to help defray the cost of his medical bills.

THAT's how far some places will go for one of their regular paying customers - you know, the guys who support their tip jars and help pay for the lights and the booze.

Attempting to hold Shannon's employees or the restaurant itself culpable for what Josh did that night is ridiculous. Josh decided to drink that night. Josh decided to drive against the judgement of others who cared for him. Josh was distracted while driving by his cell phone call. Josh chose to not wear his seat belt.

Josh killed himself due to his recklessness. Thank God he didn't take the tow truck driver or the stalled motorist with him.

I won't comment on including them in the lawsuit, for I'm trying to give up cursing as a part of my daily speech.

Does Dean Hancock want to sue those responsible for his son's death? Then I have a suggestion for him: Start with yourself. I'm quite sure you KNEW he was self-destructive; you KNEW he had an alcohol and possibly a drug problem; you KNEW he had a lot of free time to get into trouble. He was your son. Parental responsibility doesn't end once a child is out of college; it's a lifetime committment. YOU SHOULD HAVE DONE SOMETHING.

But you didn't. And you will have to live with that for the rest of your life.

Don't blame the innocent for your failings as a father.

Cards at Padres - Game 2

This post is late - oh my, is it late - this seems to be the trend this year for the ol' blogger here.

No excuses - we're all busy.

Cardinals lost this series 2-1, losing 3-0 on Sunday, and have since smacked Brett Tomko around to win against LA 8-3. Some belated impressions of last Saturday's game (a much more pleasant experience than the 7-0 whitewash the previous night):

Five in the third was fantastic. However, it should have been 1. I thought AP had hit it out when the 3-2 pitch left his bat; I don't know if the damp SD air knocked that ball down or if he just barely missed it, but it definitely died on the track. The most inexplicable part of that ball is how Sledge missed it. He appeared (from my excellent vantage point in the Toyota Terrace down the LF line) to be there in time to make the play; next thing you know, the ball is rolling towards Mike Cameron. Wow.

The scary thing is, if Sledge makes that play, Edmonds lineout to CF is the last out of the inning. One Run. Taguchi never gets to bat with the bases loaded. And the rest of the game is significantly different. For one, LaRussa plays the 6th different after Looper was hit by a pitch (which caused my heart to jump into my throat, by the way - our best pitcher so far gets plunked. yikes). I'm willing to bet either (a) he hits for Kennedy there, or (b) some sort of squeeze would have been called. Likewise, Bard's leadoff single to start the bottom of the 8th leads to a completely different strategy by the Padres, as they try to push across the tying run.

Of course, the StL relievers probably wouldn't have been Springer and Johnson, but you never know.

I had sarcastically proclaimed, after Friday's meek showing, that I would be happy if the Cardinals had an inning with more than 1 hit in it. So, like I said, the 5-spot was nice. But they didn't hit the ball with authority; they had only 3 hits after Taguchi's double (and one of those was a GIFT - how did Yadi get credit for a single on a ball that went THROUGH Branyan's glove? That was an error when I played the game); and we all saw them get mowed down the next day.

My loyal fan-ness to this team will not wane or diminish, but after the last 6 seasons of good baseball, this is tough to watch.

Cards at Padres - Game 1

Yep, it's time for the annual trek to the Litterbox and the Cardinals' lone series in San Diego. Since virtually everyone who cares about the Cardinals is aware of their 7-0 loss last night, and has probably digested all the info there is on the game, here's some tidbits for you from last night:

- Kip Wells is just as awful in person as his stats would suggest. Rarely tops out above 90 on the radar gun with his fastball. He followed a great job striking out Adrain Gonzalez in the 3rd by hanging a slider to Khalil Greene - who promptly belted it into the leftcenter field stands. Nice lapse of concentration, Kip.

- Russell Branyan must star in Wells' nightmares. I can't believe the HR he hit in the second inning had enough juice to get out. Off the end of the bat down the LF line. When you're going bad, even luck laughs at you.

- Padres fans started the wave in the top of the third inning with the score 2-0, cementing their place among baseball fans as the most ridiculous. Wave started in the upper deck.

- I sat in the upper deck.

- It was 70s retro night - and the best part of it was the dance off before the start of the 6th inning. Winner - the girl with the Beyonce' glasses and hair from 'GOLDMEMBER', boobs flapping in the wind (not exposed, which was probably a good thing), and the Oh-so-classy spider tattoo between the breasts. There's a nice girl to take home to Mama.

- To his credit, Tony LaRussa is trying to jump start this offense. Two stolen bases last night (Duncan, Rolen). Hit and Run on a 2-0 count with AP at the plate and Kennedy on first. And so on. But there's not much you can do when:
(a) the ball hardest hit by a Cardinal was Kip Wells' double;
(b) the other hard hit ball landed in Brian Giles' glove (Duncan's liner in the 6th);
(c) the Cardinals only got one guy to third all night (Wells);
(d) Jake Peavy is pitching. Usually the Cards look feeble against Jake, as do most all NL teams. But I always had that feeling in years past that the Cardinal offense was capable of hitting Jake in any inning or situation. Not last night.

So on to game 2. Chris Young hasn't lost at home since last 22 Sept, and the Cardinals have now gone 24 innings on the road without scoring a run. Looper, our best starter (!), faces Young tonight, so the offense won't have to do much. Which is good, because they probably won't.

Weekend round up

I had no inside data. I was just guessing. But, it came as no small surprise to me that Josh Hancock was legally drunk (0.157, as reported by the Post-Dispatch) at the time of the accident that killed him. However, the fact that he was drunk when he died led to some nasty comment threads being left at Viva El Birdos (one of my favorite Cardinal blogsites) in the game thread for that day.

I'm sorry Hancock is dead, because of the hole he has left in the lives of those who loved him. I lost my father little over a year ago; that left a gaping hole in my family, although we knew the end was coming. I can't imagine the pain Hancock's family and friends are dealing with right now.

That said, he should have known better than to step behind the wheel and drive after knocking a few back.

I highly doubt last Sunday morning's drive down the highway was the first time he'd driven drunk.

I also highly doubt that no one in the organization knew he was a partier and didn't have the maturity a 29-year old should. Where's the leadership? No wonder the team is drifting along right now.

Banning alcohol in the locker room - whatever. That's not going to deter someone from going out for a drink after the game. Great PR move, no appreciable effect in real life.

So that saga starts the week. Carpenter going on the DL for 3 months to have surgery and repair his elbow ended it. Yikes. Of all the starters the Cardinals used last year (Carp, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, Ponson, Reyes, Weaver), only Reyes remains in the rotation. I don't think that was the plan coming out of spring training.

Why is the club 12-17? Edmonds' struggles aside, here's why: Wainwright hasn't pitched as well as he did during he spring. The reclamation project (Wells) has been god-awful (just like his career to-date indicated). Reyes increasingly looks like a 'never-was' - all hype, not good enough at the Major League level. Looper - well, Looper has pitched his ass off. And the band-aid squad has done the best they can (Kiesler, et al).

I don't forsee much improvement on the horizon. Is 29 games in too early to start 'playing out the string'?

Wow. Like. Long Time

I'm far, FAR too busy for my own good.

But you don't care. That's irrelevant. That's not why you stopped by.

So, as I watch the Cardinals trail Jeff (Crespi Hi) Suppan 3-1 in the third, some thoughts:

(1) I hope to God they don't find alcohol or drugs in Josh Hancock's system. That would make a sad event much worse. What happened Sunday morning was horrific. Deadspin wrote a nice article, I thought, of a fan's perspective on the tragedy. This, coupled with LaRussa's DUI and Carpenter's elbow, make me very glad to see the end of April 2007.

In other news, I'm in an AL-only fantasy league for this year. This is my first experience with the Rotisserie Fantasy League dementia. So far, it's been somewhat all-consuming; my wife would call it 'Obsessive'. Had I been keeping up with my mandate to post twice a week, you'd know many if not all of my trials and tribulations in April; allow me to summarize some of the humorous ones (at least, in my mind):

1. My best three starting pitchers are Matsuzaka, Bonderman, and Garland. They've had 15 starts. Going into tonight, how many wins? 3. All Dice-K.
2. Garland lost a win when Bobby Jenks couldn't protect a 1-0 lead in Oakland. 2 weeks later, Garland lost a win when Aardsma lost a 5-3 lead at home against Detroit. Bonderman lost a win when Jones blew a 3-1 lead against KANSAS Freakin' CITY. Suffice it to say I'm dead last in my league in wins.
3. If it wasn't for Mike Maroth, I'd have 4 wins. Maroth, who I picked up as a free agend following the draft (because I was stupid and didn't draft enough pitchers), has 2 wins - and should have 3, but he couldn't get out of the 5th against Anaheim with a 5 run lead. Nice.
4. My best hitters so far: Victor Martinez (who got hurt because Cleveland was dumb enough to play their opener in a snowstorm), who has subsequently cooled off while trying to work through a quad injury; Posada (who I've traded away for pitching - C. C. Sabathia, to be exact); and Howie Kendrick (who's on the DL after being hit in the hand by a pitch).
5. Despite that, and the fact that Michael Young can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag right now, I'm 4th in the league in hitting. Thank you, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Also I'd like to congratulate Kenny Lofton for playing like a 26-year old (even though he's 39).
6. Johnathan Papel-boner is my closer. I laugh in the face of adversity.

I will keep updating this site with tidbits from my fantasy league, because I've found this (so far) much more compelling than the Cardinals.

Redbirds lost 8-1 in the end to Suppan, who went the route. Beaten Saturday by Marquis. Beaten today by Suppan. Why do I get the feeling that Jeff Weaver could string together 6 quality innings against this lineup?

Anyone else see the graphic where the OPS for Cardinal RF and CF is last and 27th in MLB, respectively? Kinda sums up their futility at the plate, doesn't it?

Different day, same result.

Mets 4, Cards 1.

Good news: Rolen Homered. Duncan threw out Valentin at the play (great play by Molina to get back and tag Valentin after Eckstein's relay tailed up the first base line).

Er, that's about it.

More errors. More non-clutch hitting with RISP. More outfield gaffes (this time Shumaker). And to add insult to injury, Chris Carpenter complained of elbow pain yesterday and will miss his next start. It's a good thing the team has a number of off-days this week; I'm not sure who would be tapped as the emergency starter by LaRussa.

Our hopes ride with Braden Looper to avoid the sweep tomorrow.

I know they're not going to go 0-162, but I'd like to get a win sooner rather than later.

Oh, and a note to the Cardinal management: concur with raising the world champs banner on opening day. I think, in hindsight, the ring ceremony could have waited until after the Mets left town. They really felt they were the better team last season; I'm SURE they were even more motivated to play well in this series after watching the Redbirds celebrate their championship on successive nights. Just an opinion.

Yikes

U-gly. U-gly. Nah-nah-nah-NAH, nah U-gly.

What a way to start the year on national TV.

Observations from the 6-1 loss to New York:

- I like So Taguchi, but he didn't have a clue out there last night. Let 140-year old Moises Alou go first to third on a SINGLE to left-center. Did the best Reggie Sanders impression I've seen on Delgado's double off the wall. Gave up on a short fly ball to left that Eckstein had to flag down. Chris Duncan could not possibly have done any worse.

- Did anyone else get the sudden sick feeling Carp might be tipping his pitches - especially in the 2-5th innings?

- why, why, WHY did they decide to throw NOTORIOUS first-ball fastball hitter Alou a fastball on the first pitch in all 3 at bats Carp faced him? Results: single, screaming line drive that Edmonds flagged down, foul ball off the foot (at least that pitch rode in on him).

- They didn't hit this spring, and they aren't hitting (yet) now. 1-7 with RISP shouldn't surprise anyone.

- Can we just concede games that Glavine pitches to our opponent and move on?

On the bright side, Johnson and Flores pitched well, and Eckstein continues to chug along.

Thank God today's a day off.

Cardinals Preview

I have been remiss in my blogging duties. A lot has happened in the sportsworld over the past 2 weeks, and I won't bore you with trying to recap it here. However, a few points of order:

- Never bet on Kansas to win the NCAA tourney as long as Bill Self is the coach.

- The only thing better than Villanova making the tournament was watching North Carolina collapse at the end against Georgetown. I've not enjoyed a college basketball game as thoroughly as I enjoyed that one in a loong time. Although you can safely put me in the 'not a fan of Georgetown' camp, there are few teams in college basketball I despise as much as Duke and North Carolina (or the entire ACC for that matter).

- Yesterday's final 4 was singularly disappointing. The Final Four team I like least will play Ohio State for the national championship. As far as Florida's last opponent, UCLA: Howland is a pretty good coach, but how he could get schooled two years in a row is beyond me. In both games Afflalo was taken out of the game by Brewer (in yesterday's contest, the officiating didn't help much either). By midway through the second half, it appeared no one on UCLA wanted to take a shot.

- Joakim Noah wears his hair like Aurora at Pure Platinum. Also, he pushes off under the rim (and gets away with it) more than any big man in recent memory. If the refs from the OSU/G'Town game work FLA/UCLA instead, it may have been a very different outcome.

- I've entered a fantasy baseball league this season. I hope to do well, but since I (a) passed up Manny Ramirez to draft Ichiro, and (b) drafted Kiko Calero, I may end up in the cellar. This is why I picked the Browns as my team name: "First in booze, first in shoes, and LAST in the American League." Seemed appropriate.

2007 Cardinals predictions:
I feel like Bill Simmons - making predictions without doing any research. Will Leitch published a cute preview last week, but it was too much 'I'm so happy we won last year, this year doesn't matter' that it left me wanting. I am second to none in my glee at last season's result. But I think everyone is missing something about this season's team:

83 wins.

I really, really, REALLY believe that deep down in the psyche of this club, they will/are carrying this gigantic chip on their shoulder; all because the smart boys said they didn't deserve to be the champs because of their regular season record.

For crying out loud, Pujols still holds a grudge against the SCOUT that SIGNED HIM because his report allegedly said AP couldn't hit at the major league level.

Add to that, the consumate competitor in Chris Carpenter, a Scott Rolen eager to prove LaRussa wrong for benching him twice in September/October (and to regain his 2004 form), what I expect to be a monster year from Adam Wainwright, the resurrection of Ken Bottenfield (as Kip Wells this time).....the list goes on and on.

Competition in the division will be tougher this year, and the race will be much tighter. StL can't afford three 8 game losing streaks this year, or they'll finish out of the money. But this team will win more than 83 games. Write it down. Anything less than 90 would be a surprise to me.

Yes, this is a Cardinals website, first and foremost. Yes, I'm an unabashed fan for the birds on the bat. But these guys are competitors, and competitors don't just reach the Promised Land once and call it good.

Can't wait. Carp against Glavine in just under 3 hours. The first title defense in 24 years.

Go Cardinals.

Baseball? You Don't Need Any Stinking Baseball...

I hate Time Warner Cable.

Yes, I'm using the word 'hate' here. Why? Well, without turning into a raving lunatic, let me just say this: ordered Extra Innings in 2005. They didn't turn it on. I called the next day to inquire why. They turned it on and CHARGED ME AGAIN. Four phone calls and four months later, they turned off my cable TV (during Game 2 of the 2005 NLCS, by the way) because it was delinquent. Seems when they assured me they had corrected the problem, the operator entered the wrong code and charged me a third time, making my account $200 in arrears. They turned on my cable and fixed the billing problem that night. I won't go into detail as to how I accomplished that.

So when AT&T came around this past December offering phone/cable TV/internet connectivity for a low price, I jumped at the chance to leave Time Warner once and for all. Since then the following things have become apparent:

a) Channel 4 Padres is a cable subscriber service only. So I won't have Padres games on TV this season.
b) Roadrunner is a faster internet connection than DSL. This may be obvious to you the reader, but it wasn't to me.
c) MLB has decided to renew the MLB Extra Innings package only on DirectTV.

Today the cable subscribers reportedly agreed to match DirectTV's offer to carry out-of-market games for MLB. MLB, being the savvy public relations people that they are, quickly released a statement that the offer did not come close to matching DirectTV's offer.

Let's look at this from two perspectives:

1. If DirectTV had exclusive rights to carry out of market games, I would have been screwed becasue I don't have DirectTV.
2. If DirectTV and the cable companies decide to carry the out of market game package, I will be screwed because the AT&T bundled cable provider is DISH NETWORK. And they haven't indicated any interest in matching DirectTV's offer.

Do you see the irony?

I can't believe my hopes for seeing any Cardinals games on TV (not involving the Padres, of course) rest with John friggin' Kerry.

Those that forgot the past...probably lost money on this game

Kentucky 67, Villanova 58.

The AP summary of the game can be found here.

I'd like to thank CBS for forcing me to suffer through USC/Arkansas (which hasn't been closer than 10 since EARLY in the second half) instead of switching to this game, or even the Saluki/Holy Cross game, which was also competitive until Southern Illinois pulled away late. Thanks again, asshats.

I'm not a smart man, but I'd like to point out the following things that I predicted happening:

- Nova started fast, leading 18-13.

- Nova then didn't score for 6 minutes, turning a 5 point lead into a 3 point deficit.

- Additional scoring droughts pushed UK's lead to 10.

- Furious comeback saw the Wildcats close to within 5 late.

- Nardi misses a wide OPEN 3 that would have cut the lead to 2.

- Nova loses by 9.

Two other truths bore themselves out tonight: Kentucky hasn't lost a first-round game in 16 years; Villanova nas never advanced to the Sweet 16 in 3 consecutive years (People who didn't know the history of these programs, or did and chose to ignore it, lost money tonight).

Yet I still picked my alma mater to win this game in my pool. Sentiment will kill you every time. I did have tonight's winner going out to Kansas on Sunday, though. Reality had to set in somewhere.

For the first two days of the tournament, my record is 25-7. Pretty good. What's more amazing is all my Sweet 16 selections are still alive after the first round. That's never happened.

So now I'm reduced to rooting vicariously for the Xavier Musketeers. My brother has a passing interest in them (class of 2004). They only play one of the heavy favorites to win the whole thing: Ohio State. I might lose interest in this tournament entirely after tomorrow.

Speaking of tomorrow: Let me close with an old Irish Blessing:

May the road rise to meet you;

May the wind always be at your back;

May the sun shine warm upon your face;

May you stop doing Car Bombs when the horizon starts to blur;

May your Corned Beef and Cabbage hit the spot;

May the Uberhot redhead at the bar actually talk to you.

And some appropriately themed Irish attire:

Well, it's up

My Villanova NCAA tourney preview is posted over at Deadspin. You can read it here. Enjoy.

Well, the brackets are out....

...and the Wildcats made the tournament! Hell yes! Final Four here we come!!!

Better look over the brackets first...

uh, we open with Kentucky. Wildcats haven't lost a first round game since 1991. Actually they didn't lose that year, either; they were banned from the tournament due to recruiting violations. And Tubby Smith may be coaching to keep his job (no small motivation). Oh, boy.

If they win: Kansas. Probably the best team in the country right now (outside of Georgetown). Were getting clobbered by Texas recently in the first half, then poured it on in the second to win (of course, Durant turning his ankle didn't hurt). Yikes.

AND Villanova has never made the sweet 16 in three consecutive seasons (they made the Sweet 16 two years ago and the Regional Finals last year).

Well, perhaps the Final Four is a little ambitious. I'll be happy with a first round win.

On a high note, Deadspin is running previews of each game on their website. Yours truly penned the Villanova preview - so look for it. I'll post the two items I cut from my submission here after it runs over there.

I'm still a little surprised Syracuse and West Virginia didn't make the NCAA field. After Nova lost to Georgetown at home and Marquette in Milwaukee, I felt they had to win their remaining 3 regular season games and 1 Big East tournament game to get in. I also had a sneaking suspicion that, because there are upsets in conference tournaments and the team that is supposed to win doesn't always, Syracuse at Villanova was an NCAA elimination game. It really helped Nova's cause that they, the Orangemen, and the Mountaineers all went out in the same round of the Big East tourney. If WVU wins against Louisville, they're probably the 9 seed playing Kentucky instead of Nova. If Syracuse completes the 7-point play against the Wildcats, they might be in the tourney instead of Villanova.

I'd rather be lucky than good.

Big East Tourney - Finals preview

Ten games. 9-1 record. Correctly called the Catholic confrontation nailbiter. I've ordered a wheelbarrow to haul my balls around in for the rest of the weekend.

Before we preview G'Town/Pitt, Cardinal relief specialist Josh Kinney will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Kinney had thrown 2 ineffective innings this spring, giving up 6 runs total. It seemed odd that a guy who was virtually unhittable during last Sept/Oct would regress so badly in such a short time. I'm actually relieved that the root cause was something he had no control over, and had been (apparently) tearing for quite some time.

This makes it even more important that Jason Isringhausen is able to go for the season opener. Losing him would shift Wainwright back in to the bullpen, throwing a spot in the starting rotation open, meaning one of the long/middle relievers would shift into the rotation, meaning 2 spots would open up in the bullpen - just a mismash of issues. So here's hoping Izzy's first appearance this coming Thursday goes well.

On to the tourney.

Game 11: Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown. G'Town won the only meeting between these two schools in the regular season. Pitt was one of the top 5-10 teams until late in the year; G'Town has been on a roll of late. Win for the Hoyas may mean a #1 seed in the NCAAs; Either way, these two teams will be #2's when the brackets come out tomorrow. I dislike both these teams, so I probably won't watch the game (because they both can't lose); but I'm going to ride the hot hand here, and go with the Hoyas.

Big East Tourney - Semifinal Round Preview

26-2. Twenty-Six to two.

Apparently spreading the scoring droughts throughout the game was boring, so Villanova decided to get them all out of the way up front. That's the only way I can explain a Division 1 basketball team scoring 2 points for the first 10 min and 55 seconds of a conference tournament game. Wow. I forgot to set my TiVo to tape this game, and now I'm really glad I did.

To their credit, the Cats fought back to make it almost a game; in fact, after the 9:06 point of the first half, they outscored Georgetown 55-36. But it was way too big a deficit to overcome. That, coupled with off shooting days for Reynolds and Sumpter, their porous interior and transition defense, and the absence of Mike Nardi due to a calf injury/ankle sprain sustained against Syracuse last Saturday, and we all pretty much saw this one coming.

Enough moping. It took Louisville guard Edgar Sosa divining Tyus Edney's famous length-of-the-court drive (to beat Missouri in the 1995 NCAA tourney second round) for West Virginia not to win their quarter final game. Without that, I'd be 8-0 predicting the winners. Oh, well. 7-1 is pretty good, too. WVU has a better record than Villanova (they won the head to head meeting), and a big win against #3 UCLA earlier in the year; I thought if they advanced further in this tourney than Nova that they could replace Nova in the NCAA. That could still happen; the Cats were lethargic for the first half against G-town, and WVU took Louisville to the limit in losing. But it also could not. We won't know for sure until Sunday.

On to tomorrow's prognostication:

Game 9: Notre Dame vs. Georgetown. Irish handled a game Syracuse team. G'Town embarassed Nova and then hung on during a furious Cat comeback. ND can shoot from outside; G'Town runs a modified version of the old Princeton offense and pounds the ball inside. Georgetown won their earlier meeting, demolishing the Irish by 18 in MD. Prediction: Don't like the Hoyas, but they are good this year. G'Town in a nail biter.

Game 10: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh. The slashers vs the big inside threat. Louisville pounded Pitt in their regular season matchup, winning by 13 at Pittsburgh. That should provide more motivation for the Panthers. Prediction: Pittsburgh advances. This would set up a conference final against the two best teams in the league during the regular year, which is what God and Chuck Norris intended. And that's good.

Chuck Norris doesn't sleep; he waits.

Big East Tourney - Quarterfinal round preview

Four games. 4-0 record. I should have bet on these games instead of throwing money at the $390M Mega Millions jackpot.

Since I had such success today, I will temp fate and put my perfect record on the line by looking at tomorrow's matchups at Mono Sodium Glutenate, er, Madison Square Garden.

Game 5: Villanova vs. Georgetown. Yet another matchup against these historic rivals. G'Town has lived up to expectations for this season after barely losing to eventual National Champion Florida in last year's NCAAs. Villanova defeated DePaul today, but two disturbing trends emerged: (a) only Reynolds and Sumpter are reliable scorers; (b) the Wildcats interior defense is truly awful. DePaul drove the lane at will. These teams met twice this season, each winning a nailbiter on the other teams' home court. Prediction: My heart's with the Cats, but my $$ is on the Hoyas.

Game 6: Syracuse vs. Notre Dame. The Irish never could quite get off the bubble in the last two years. Good enough to make the NCAA, they were left at the altar twice. Not this year. Picked to finish 11th in the conference, they are instead the #16 team in the land. Syracuse clinched a trip to the Big Dance by dismissing UConn in the first round. The teams did not meet during the regular season. Prediction: Syracuse has not lost a conference tournament game since 2004. That streak ends at the hands of the Irish.

Game 7: West Virginia vs. Louisville. Mountaineers set a conference record by hitting 17 threes in their dismantling of the Providence Friars in the opening round. These teams didn't meet during the regular season, either. WVU will try to light it up from outside again. Louisville has some slasher-style scorers and is more athletic than the Mountaineers. Should be a good game. Prediction: My disgust for Rick Pitino knows no bounds. Mountaineers prevail on GP.

Game 8: Marquette vs. Pittsburgh. The Warriors survived a gutty Red Men effort to advance out of the opening round. Pittsburgh awaits with some huge 7-foot white guy who's actually pretty good. The teams met twice this year, Marquette won both by a total of 7 points. I think this will be the best game of Day 2. Prediction: It is extremely difficult to beat a team three times in one season. My aversion to the Panthers finds its roots in Sean Miller's teams, but the third time is a charm here. Pitt advances.

Big East Tourney - Opening round preview

Due to the overwhelming response to the Trivia Time (exactly 0 responses), I'm going to suspend it until the regular season starts. Answer from this weekend's question will be at the end of this post.

Most prognosticators are predicting Villanova has made the field of 64 (or 65 if you count the play-in game. Which, by the way, is the biggest piece of crap in college basketball. CONGRATULATIONS, you've won your conference tournament and made the NCAA --- just kidding. You need to play one more game for the right to lose to the #1 team in the country.). I still hedge my bet. I think they need to win their first round game against DePaul to qualify. Time will tell.

And that time starts Wednesday at the Big East Tournament! All 10 games over four consecutive days will be broadcast on ESPN, starting at 0900 PST tomorrow. Let's take a moment to preview the games:

Game 1: Villanova vs. DePaul. The Blue Demons haven't been any good since some old guy named Meyer coached them back in the 1970s. Besides, they hail from the home of the Cubs (two strikes). Villanova probably doesn't need to win this one, but as the #9 seed in the tourney why leave any stone unturned? DePaul won the only meeting between the two this year, 73-65 in Chicago. Prediction: In a shock, I'm picking the Cats.

Game 2: UCONN vs. Syracuse. Syracuse is the hotter team, having won 5 of 6 to close out the season. Perennial power Connecticut has struggled this year, falling from league Co-Champs a year ago to being the bottom qualifier for this event. Syracuse is assumed to be in based on their big win against G'Town last week, but like Nova can't afford to leave any room for doubt. Huskies are making preps to host a NIT game. The teams split their two meetings this season, each winning at home. Prediction: The Orangemen have more to play for, so they're the pick.

Game 3: Providence vs. West Virginia. Hard to believe Beilein's Bombers are considered a long shot to make the NCAAs at this point, but despite a quality win against UCLA, they are. The Mountaineers probably need a deep run this week to get in; a mis-step by either Nova or 'Cuse would greatly help their chances. Those wacky Friars boast the Conference's top scorer in senior Herbert Hill. Friars try to light it up inside; Bombers chuck it from the cheap seats. Friars won by 3 on 20 Feb in Providence. Prediction: Hill gets his, but on this court, where Beilein has done very well the past two years, he's tough to bet against. West Virginia takes it.

Game 4: St. John's vs. Marquette. The Red Men return to the tournament after missing last season's affair because they sucked. Marquette has stumbled down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 6 but still being ranked #19 in the country. Prediction: The days of Lou Carneseca and Chris Mullin are long over. Warriors should roll into the second round.

Congratulations to Scottie Reynolds on being named Big East Rookie of the Year.

Answer to the weekend question: Nolan Ryan (292 games).

MEGA millions....for a small investment.

We'll get to the trivia question for the weekend in a minute.

This week, the CA lottery Mega Millions jackpot passed $200,000,000 (it looks more impressive written out that way). Whenever the jackpot for a lottery drawing reaches a ridiculous number (like this one), all red-blooded Americans are obligated to buy a ticket. Why? Because it's easier to make money this way than it is to earn it the hard way - by working hard. I sometimes think the Founding Fathers edited the last draft of the Declaration of Independence, the original sentence was "...life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, with as minimal effort as one can get away with."

So I picked out 6 numbers, did 5 quick picks, and entered the Tuesday drawing. I didn't win. Then, I began to think (which isn't necessarily a good thing) - what if I ran a statistical analysis fo the recent drawings, to see if a pattern existed? Wouldn't that improve my chances at winning? Of course it would! I'm a smart guy, I can GAME THE GAME.

This consumed me for the better part of 3 days.

After looking at the facts, and examining the clues, I arrived at what I thought were, for sure, the mortal lock numbers to win this jackpot (now at $275M). I also picked 4 lesser (but still good) combinations, and, as insurance against Lady Luck's fickle mind, I went with 5 'QuickPicks' (numbers chosen at random).

The result?

Well, the jackpot is projected to be $340M for next Tuesday's drawing. I had as many numbers (2) that hit as the QuickPicks did; and none of the 4 that hit were on the same line.

I'll be applying lessons learned and picking again for Tuesday's drawing.

Trivia Time. Answer to Thursday's question: Bill Madlock won 4 NL batting titles during his career.

Weekend question: Who lost more games than any other pitcher in the 20th century? HINT: He's in the Hall of Fame.

Update 3/3/07 1245: Nova leads Syracuse by 7 late. Go Cats!

Trivia Time

Answer to yesterday's question: All of their fathers played in the Negro Leagues.

Today's question: This could be easy, but still: Among eligible players not in the Hall of Fame, who has won the most batting titles? Extra credit if you know how many he won during his career.

Villanova 78, UConn 74. Phew. Now if they can beat Syracuse, they may sneak in.

Time to start drafting my 3 tidbits for Deadspin. Even if they're not published.